scholarly journals Motivated Reasoning and Democratic Accountability

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
ANDREW T. LITTLE ◽  
KEITH E. SCHNAKENBERG ◽  
IAN R. TURNER
Keyword(s):  
Political Behavior ◽  
Motivated Reasoning ◽  
Government Performance ◽  
Democratic Accountability ◽  
Substantial Evidence ◽  
Electoral Accountability ◽  
Standard Models ◽  
Fully Bayesian ◽  
The Relationship

Does motivated reasoning harm democratic accountability? Substantial evidence from political behavior research indicates that voters have “directional motives” beyond accuracy, which is often taken as evidence that they are ill equipped to hold politicians accountable. We develop a model of electoral accountability with voters as motivated reasoners. Directional motives have two effects: (1) divergence—voters with different preferences hold different beliefs, and (2) desensitization—the relationship between incumbent performance and voter beliefs is weakened. While motivated reasoning does harm accountability, this is generally driven by desensitized voters rather than polarized partisans with politically motivated divergent beliefs. We also analyze the relationship between government performance and vote shares, showing that while motivated reasoning always weakens this relationship, we cannot infer that accountability is also harmed. Finally, we show that our model can be mapped to standard models in which voters are fully Bayesian but have different preferences or information.

scholarly journals Motivated reasoning and democratic accountability

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew T. Little ◽  
Keith Schnakenberg ◽  
Ian R Turner
Keyword(s):  
Political Behavior ◽  
Motivated Reasoning ◽  
Government Performance ◽  
Democratic Accountability ◽  
Substantial Evidence ◽  
Electoral Accountability ◽  
Standard Models ◽  
Fully Bayesian ◽  
The Relationship

Does motivated reasoning harm democratic accountability? Substantial evidence from political behavior research indicates that voters have "directional motives" beyond accuracy, which is often taken as evidence that they are ill-equipped to hold politicians accountable. We develop a model of electoral accountability with voters as motivated reasoners. Directional motives have two effects: (1) divergence -- voters with different preferences hold different beliefs, and (2) desensitization -- the relationship between incumbent performance and voter beliefs is weakened. While motivated reasoning does harm accountability, this is generally driven by desensitized voters rather than polarized partisans with politically motivated divergent beliefs. We also analyze the relationship between government performance and vote shares, showing that while motivated reasoning always weakens this relationship we cannot infer that accountability is also harmed. Finally, we show that our model can be mapped to standard models in which voters are fully Bayesian but have difference preferences or information.

On the Relationship between Alonso's Theory of Movement and Wilson's Family of Spatial-Interaction Models

1981 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 217-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
J Ledent
Keyword(s):  
Input Data ◽  
Spatial Interaction ◽  
System Of Equations ◽  
Interaction Models ◽  
Spatial Interaction Models ◽  
Standard Family ◽  
Original Contribution ◽  
Standard Models ◽  
The Relationship

This paper compares the system of equations underlying Alonso's theory of movement with that of Wilson's standard family of spatial-interaction models. It is shown that the Alonso model is equivalent to one of Wilson's four standard models depending on the assumption at the outset about which of the total outflows and/or inflows are known. This result turns out to supersede earlier findings—inconsistent only in appearance—which were derived independently by Wilson and Ledent. In addition to this, an original contribution of this paper—obtained as a byproduct of the process leading to the aforementioned result—is to provide an exact methodology permitting one to solve the Alonso model for each possible choice of the input data.

Industrial districts and local governance in the Italian experience

1999 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 131-139
Author(s):  
Maurizio Mistri
Keyword(s):  
Political Behavior ◽  
Political Attitudes ◽  
Local Governance ◽  
Dynamic Processes ◽  
Industrial Districts ◽  
Small Enterprises ◽  
Local Growth ◽  
Italian Experience ◽  
The Law ◽  
The Relationship

This paper focuses on the problem of the governance of industrial districts in Italy. The analysis begins with an assessment of the dynamic processes that characterize the development of industrial districts, particularly as concerns the elements of a cultural nature. The relationship between local political attitudes and forms of local growth is considered, generally revealing how in the various practical examples there is a convergence between models of political behavior and the needs of the system of small enterprises. The paper ends with a brief discussion of the law 317/91, designed to establish the responsibilities and roles of the industrial districts.

scholarly journals The Relationship Between Alcohol Beverage Types and Violence

2018 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 183-200
Author(s):  
Aleksandra J. Snowden
Keyword(s):  
Regression Models ◽  
Neighborhood Characteristics ◽  
Substantial Evidence ◽  
Alcohol Outlets ◽  
Observation Instrument ◽  
Beverage Type ◽  
Social Observation ◽  
Ecological Association ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Relationship

There is substantial evidence of an ecological association between off-premise alcohol outlets and violence. We know less, however, about how specific beverage types that are sold in the outlets might explain the difference in violence rates across different alcohol outlets. Data on alcohol beverage types were collected for all off-premise alcohol outlets in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, using a systematic social observation instrument. Spatially lagged regression models were estimated to determine whether the variation in alcohol beverage types is related to robbery density net of important neighborhood predictors of crime rates. Availability of all alcohol beverage types (beer, wine, spirits, premixed, single beer, single spirits, single premixed) was positively associated with the density of robberies, net of neighborhood characteristics. Reducing alcohol beverages, regardless of the beverage type, sold at off-premise alcohol outlets may reduce violence in communities.

Community Interest Congruence

2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 384-395
Author(s):  
Samuel B. Rennebohm ◽  
Melissa Caris ◽  
Jyssica Seebeck ◽  
John W. Thoburn
Keyword(s):  
Romantic Relationships ◽  
Social Factors ◽  
Theoretical Foundation ◽  
Individual Therapy ◽  
Substantial Evidence ◽  
Community Values ◽  
Community Interest ◽  
Emotionally Focused ◽  
Interest Congruence ◽  
The Relationship

Attachment has been shown to play a significant role in adult romantic relationships, and there is substantial evidence supporting the use of attachment-based interventions with couples. Prevailing conceptualizations of dyadic functioning often incorporate biological and psychological factors, such as attachment, but often limit their scope of social factors to the dyad itself. Such conceptualizations do not attend to the relationship between couples and their wider community. Awareness of social and community values is much more common in individual therapy but has not been integrated into couple’s work. In this article, we propose a biopsychosocial foundation for viewing the relationship between couples and their wider community through the lens of attachment, in which securely attached couples are more likely to have community interest congruence and insecurely attached couples are more likely to experience incongruence. Translating this theoretical foundation into practice, we also propose a stepwise approach for integrating community interest work into the established framework of emotionally focused therapy with couples.

Insider or Outsider? Grand Corruption and Electoral Accountability

2017 ◽  
Vol 51 (4) ◽  
pp. 415-446 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monika Bauhr ◽  
Nicholas Charron
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Political Corruption ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Democratic Accountability ◽  
Electoral Accountability ◽  
Level Data

While democratic accountability is widely expected to reduce corruption, citizens to a surprisingly large extent opt to forgo their right to protest and voice complaints, and refrain from using their electoral right to punish corrupt politicians. This article examines how grand corruption and elite collusion influence electoral accountability, in particular citizens’ willingness to punish corrupt incumbents. Using new regional-level data across 21 European countries, we provide clear empirical evidence that the level of societal grand corruption in which a voter finds herself systematically affects how she responds to a political corruption scandal. Grand corruption increases loyalty to corrupt politicians, demobilizes the citizenry, and crafts a deep divide between insiders, or potential beneficiaries of the system, and outsiders, left on the sidelines of the distribution of benefits. This explains why outsiders fail to channel their discontent into effective electoral punishment, and thereby how corruption undermines democratic accountability.

scholarly journals The Impact of Autocratic Leadership on Disruptive Political Behavior, Moderating the Relationship of Abusive Supervisory Behavior and Mediating the Relationship of Employee’s Perception of Job Insecurity

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 57
Author(s):  
Asif Hussain ◽  
Xue Yang ◽  
Lu Yali ◽  
Asma Ibrahim ◽  
Samina Hussain
Keyword(s):  
Political Behavior ◽  
Job Insecurity ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Middle Level ◽  
Mediating Effect ◽  
Employee Perception ◽  
Autocratic Leadership ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

This study examines the impact of Autocratic leadership on Disruptive Political Behavior with the moderating effect of Abusive Supervisory Behavior and the mediating effect of Employee Perception of Job Insecurity. It examines the employee perception of job insecurity while working in an autocratic culture and the political strategies which an employee chooses to cope up with such insecurities. The data was collected through a structured questionnaire from a sample of 248 employees which include middle-level managers, front-line managers, and their employees. Pearson correlation test was used to establish the relationship between variables. Findings reveal the existence of a significant positive relationship between the variables. Result also prove that there is a significant positive moderation of abusive supervisory behavior between the relationship of autocratic leadership and employee perception of job insecurity, and shows partial significance with mediating effect of employee perception of job insecurity with the relation of autocratic leadership and disruptive political behavior. The study concludes with a discussion and future directions.

From on High: The Effect of Elite Polarization on Mass Attitudes and Behaviors, 1972–2012

2015 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua N. Zingher ◽  
Michael E. Flynn
Keyword(s):  
Political Behavior ◽  
Behavioral Changes ◽  
Political Elites ◽  
Policy Space ◽  
Attitudes And Behaviors ◽  
Party Elites ◽  
Elite Level ◽  
Mass Attitudes ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Mass Level

Though there is widespread scholarly consensus that American political elites have become increasingly ideologically polarized, there remains debate about how the mass electorate has responded to the increase in polarization at the elite level. This article shows that as party elites have become more polarized, individuals have become better able to identify the party that best matches their own ideological positions, thereby contributing to polarization at the mass level. Using forty years of ANES and DW-NOMINATE data to test this argument, it was found that the relationship between a voter’s position in policy space and their political behavior is indeed conditional upon polarization at the elite level. This finding demonstrates how changes in elite polarization translate to behavioral changes on the mass level.

scholarly journals Latent likelihood ratio tests for assessing spatial kernels in epidemic models

2020 ◽  
Vol 81 (3) ◽  
pp. 853-873
Author(s):  
David Thong ◽  
George Streftaris ◽  
Gavin J. Gibson
Keyword(s):  
Likelihood Ratio ◽  
Kernel Function ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Spatial Separation ◽  
Likelihood Ratio Tests ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Competing Models ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Fully Bayesian ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract One of the most important issues in the critical assessment of spatio-temporal stochastic models for epidemics is the selection of the transmission kernel used to represent the relationship between infectious challenge and spatial separation of infected and susceptible hosts. As the design of control strategies is often based on an assessment of the distance over which transmission can realistically occur and estimation of this distance is very sensitive to the choice of kernel function, it is important that models used to inform control strategies can be scrutinised in the light of observation in order to elicit possible evidence against the selected kernel function. While a range of approaches to model criticism is in existence, the field remains one in which the need for further research is recognised. In this paper, building on earlier contributions by the authors, we introduce a new approach to assessing the validity of spatial kernels—the latent likelihood ratio tests—which use likelihood-based discrepancy variables that can be used to compare the fit of competing models, and compare the capacity of this approach to detect model mis-specification with that of tests based on the use of infection-link residuals. We demonstrate that the new approach can be used to formulate tests with greater power than infection-link residuals to detect kernel mis-specification particularly when the degree of mis-specification is modest. This new tests avoid the use of a fully Bayesian approach which may introduce undesirable complications related to computational complexity and prior sensitivity.

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