Metabolic Score for Visceral Fat: a Novel Predictor for the Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus
Abstract To investigate the association between the Metabolic Score for Visceral Fat (METS-VF) and risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and compare the predictive value of the METS-VF for T2DM incidence with other obesity indices in Chinese people. A total of 12,237 non-T2DM participants aged over 18 from the Rural Chinese Cohort Study of 2007-2008 were included at baseline and followed up during 2013-2014. The cox proportional hazards regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between baseline METS-VF and T2DM risk. Restricted cubic splines were used to model the association between METS-VF and T2DM risk. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) analysis was used to evaluate the ability of METS-VF to predict T2DM incidence. During a median follow-up of 6.01 (5.09-6.06) years, 837 cases developed T2DM. After adjusting for potential confounding factors, the adjusted HR (95% CI) for the highest versus lowest METS-VF quartile was 5.97 (4.28-8.32), with a per 1-standard deviation increase in METS-VF positively associated with T2DM risk. Positive associations were also found in the sensitivity and subgroup analyses, respectively. A significant nonlinear dose–response association was observed between METS-VF and T2DM risk for all participants (Pnonlinearity = 0.0347). Finally, the AUC value of METS-VF for predicting T2DM was largest among six indices. The METS-VF may be a reliable and applicable predictor of T2DM incidence in Chinese people regardless of sex, age, or body mass index.