The Economic Impact of the Nigerian Civil War: a Comment

1973 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 460-463
Author(s):  
F. S. O'Brien
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Statistical Information ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Recent Issue ◽  
Nigerian Civil War ◽  
Product Series

In a recent issue of this Journal, x, 2, July 1972, pp. 223–45, Dr E. Wayne Nafziger assessed ‘The Economic Impact of the Nigerian Civil War’. The article is, in general, an excellent summary and analysis of the available statistical information on the Nigerian economy for the war period, June 1967 to January 1970, as well as the years leading up to and immediately following the hostilities. However, the author has made an error in his interpretation of the Nigerian gross domestic product series which has led him to seriously understate the decline in aggregate economic activity associated with the war.

The Economic Impact of the Nigerian Civil War: a Reply

1973 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 463-465
Author(s):  
E. Wayne Nafzier
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Slow Growth ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Nigerian Civil War

I am grateful to Dr F. S. O'Brien for pointing out my error in interpretation of Nigerian gross domestic product (G.D.P.) during the war. His correction also helps to resolve a contradiction between my treatment of Biafran territory and my statement that ‘Other factors accounting for the slow growth were the drop in oil and manufacturing output in the secessionist East.’

The Economic Impact of the Nigerian Civil War

1972 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 223-245 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Wayne Nafziger
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Economic Structure ◽  
The Political ◽  
Economic Variable ◽  
Political Variable ◽  
Political Upheaval ◽  
Nigerian Civil War ◽  
Coups D'etat

Few events alter the socio-economic structure of a country as radically as the convulsions and displacements concomitant with war and political upheaval. In Nigeria the two coups d'état of 1966 and the civil war of 1967–1970 have had a profound effect on economic activity, and in turn have been affected by economic variables. In this study the political variable will generally be treated as independent and the economic variable as dependent, despite the fact that in the period after independence in 1960, tendencies towards political and economic disintegration reinforced each other.1

scholarly journals Applying the ARIMA Model to the Process of Forecasting GDP and CPI in the Jordanian Economy

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 70
Author(s):  
Abdullah Ghazo
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Domestic Product

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and consumer price index (CPI) are significant indicators to describe and evaluate economic activity and levels of development. They are also often used by decision makers so as to plan economic policy. This paper aims at modeling and predicting GDP and CPI in Jordan. In order to achieve this goal, the study applied the Box- Jenkins (JB) methodology for the period 1976-2019. Based on the results, ARIMA (3,1,1) found to be the best model for the GDP. In addition, ARIMA (1,1,0) was the best model for forecasting the CPI. The results were supported with the findings of the stationarity and identification rules test of time series under using AIC and SIC criterion. The forecasted values of the GDP and the CPI for the next three years (2020-2022) were (29342.12, 32095.10, 35106.36 million JD) and (128.31, 133.28, 139.28) respectively. Compared with 2019, the GDP is forecasted to decrease in 2020, while the CPI is forecasted to increase in 2020. This implies that the Jordanian economy is tending toward stagflation. After 2020, both GDP and CPI increased, which indicates that Jordanian economy is tending toward cost-push inflation.

scholarly journals Oil Price Shocks and Economic Activity: The Asymmetric Cointegration Approach in South Africa

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 685-713 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ntokozo Nzimande ◽  
Simiso Msomi
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Asymmetric Response ◽  
Asymmetric Cointegration

This study examines the link between oil prices and economic activity proxied by gross domestic product in the context of South Africa. The study employs the asymmetric approach proposed by Schorderet (2004) and advanced by Lardic and Mignon (2008). Asymmetric cointegration is used because it is believed that increasing and decreasing oil prices do not have similar or equal impacts on economic activity. In this study we document evidence for an asymmetric response of economic activity to oil price shocks. Further, our findings suggest that negative oil price shocks are important relative to positive oil price shocks.

scholarly journals Цифровая синергетика взаимодействия внутригодовой активности экономической деятельности и годовой динамики валового внутреннего продукта

2020 ◽  
pp. 118-131
Author(s):  
Michail Novikov
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Dynamic Component ◽  
Cyclic Component ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Activity Energy

According to the results of the decomposition of the observed levels of quarterly GDP indicators statistically relevant components of its dynamics are identified: the dynamic component of seasonal cyclic nature, the trend-cyclic component, and that of short-term fluctuations. A methodology is suggested for studying the impact of within-year economic activity energy on the dynamics of annual GDP indicators. The research analytics was tested on the actual materials of annual and quarterly indicators of the Gross Domestic Product of the Republic of Belarus over the period of 2009–2017.

scholarly journals Islamic Responses to the Financial and Economic Crises

ICR Journal ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 255-257
Author(s):  
Abdul Karim Abdullah (Leslie Terebessy)
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
National Income ◽  
Standard Of Living ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
International Level ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Increase In Productivity

An economic crisis is the flip side of a financial crisis. A financial crisis, whether on a personal, national or international level, takes place when economic activity - the source of income - slows down or stops. Economic activity generates income. When production slows down income paid for the use of the factors of production also falls. As the gross domestic product declines so does national income. When there is a recession or a depression the economy needs to be revived - fast. An increase in efficiency or productivity contributes to higher profits, higher incomes, and a higher standard of living. Low productivity keeps income at low levels. When income increases without a proportionate increase in productivity, however, it is as if a car engine were running at a higher speed - but in the neutral gear. More income is being generated, but there is little corresponding increase in real wealth. Islam, in turn, appears to offer effective responses to a variety of crises - including financial and economic ones.

scholarly journals Economic legacy effects of armed conflict: Insights from the civil war in Aceh, Indonesia

2021 ◽  
pp. 073889422199450
Author(s):  
Martin Philipp Heger ◽  
Eric Neumayer
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
District Level ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Legacy Effects ◽  
Peace Dividend ◽  
Level Data

The province of Aceh in Indonesia provides a promising case for studying the economic legacy effects of conflict given subnational district-level data on violence and gross domestic product. We demonstrate specific negative economic legacy effects of armed conflict despite a general peace dividend: whilst all districts in Aceh grow faster after conflict ends in 2005 than during the conflict, the districts that suffered relatively more from violence during the war grow relatively more slowly during peacetime than districts that experienced relatively little violence. These negative legacy effects are relatively short-lived, however, and are no longer statistically significant from 2009 onwards. JEL classification: O40, O47, Q54

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