Modelling occurrence probability of the Endangered green peafowl Pavo muticus in mainland South-east Asia: applications for landscape conservation and management

The green peafowl Pavo muticus is a highly threatened galliform species that was historically distributed widely across South-east Asia. Evidence shows a recent population decline and range contraction for this species, linked with habitat degradation and over-exploitation. This study aimed to determine the current known distribution across mainland South-east Asia and investigate potential habitat that could host remaining viable populations and contribute to the long-term survival of the species. We used locations from historical and recent records and habitat variables from a geographical information system database to model the probability of occurrence and classify key localities according to their relative importance for the species. Our results showed that the green peafowl probably occurs in less than 16% of its historical range across mainland South-east Asia and that remaining locations are fragmented. Four confirmed and two potential stronghold populations were identified for the species, based on the localities with high capacity to contribute to its long-term survival in large contiguous patches. These were in central Myanmar, western and northern Thailand, eastern Cambodia/south-central Viet Nam and northern Cambodia/southern Lao. Threats vary amongst countries, with continued habitat loss and degradation in many areas and hunting particularly acute in Viet Nam, Cambodia and Lao. Most of the remaining populations are in protected areas but the protection level varies widely. We propose conservation actions for each stronghold population, in accordance with the nature of the threats and protection level in each area, to prevent the local extinction of this species.