In praise of Ecumenical Bayes

2011 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 206-207 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael D. Lee

AbstractJones & Love (J&L) should have given more attention to Agnostic uses of Bayesian methods for the statistical analysis of models and data. Reliance on the frequentist analysis of Bayesian models has retarded their development and prevented their full evaluation. The Ecumenical integration of Bayesian statistics to analyze Bayesian models offers a better way to test their inferential and predictive capabilities.

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Koen Derks ◽  
Jacques de Swart ◽  
Eric-Jan Wagenmakers ◽  
Jan Wille ◽  
ruud wetzels

Statistical theory is fundamental to many auditing guidelines and procedures. In order to assist auditors with the required statistical analyses, and to advocate state-of-the-art Bayesian methods, we introduce JASP for Audit (JfA). JfA is easy-to-use, free-of-charge software that automatically follows the standard audit workflow, selects the appropriate statistical analysis, interprets the results, and produces a readable report. This approach reduces the potential for statistical errors and therefore increases audit quality. Next to the frequentist methods that currently dominate audit practice, JfA incorporates Bayesian counterparts of these methods that come with several advantages. For example, Bayesian statistics allows incorporation of expert knowledge directly into the statistical analyses, allowing for a decrease in sample size, and an increase in efficiency. In sum, JfA is designed with the auditor in mind, it guides the auditor through the statistical aspects of an audit, and therefore has the potential to increase audit efficiency and quality.


2021 ◽  
Vol 66 ◽  
pp. 126762
Author(s):  
Emma Shardlow ◽  
Caroline Linhart ◽  
Sameerah Connor ◽  
Erin Softely ◽  
Christopher Exley

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustafa A Al Ibrahim ◽  
Vladislav Torlov ◽  
Mokhles M Mezghani

Abstract Sidewall coring is a cost-effective process to complement conventional fullbore coring. Because sidewall cores target exact depth points, verification of the sidewall core recovery depth is required. We present an automated, fast workflow to perform the depth verification using borehole images, thereby providing consistent results. An application example using a typical dataset is used to showcase the workflow. A novel automated approach based on image analysis techniques and Bayesian statistical analysis is developed to verify sidewall core recovery depth using borehole image logs. A complete workflow is presented covering: 1) utilization of reference logs, e.g., gamma ray, to correct image log depth using cross correlation and/or dynamic time warping, 2) automated identification of sidewall core cavity in borehole image log using the circle Hough transform, and 3) estimation of confidence in the identification using Bayesian statistics and specialized metrics. The workflow is applied on a typical dataset containing tens of sidewall core cavities with varying quality. Results are comparable to the manual interpretation from an experienced engineer. A number of observations are made. First, the use of reference logs to correct the image log allows for determining the exact well logs values where the sidewall core was sampled, which is then compared to the initial target well logs values. This increases the confidence that the target lithofacies was sampled as planned. Second, the circle Hough Transform is suitable for this problem because it provides stable solutions for partially imaged sidewall core cavities typical in pad-based borehole images. Third, the use of Bayesian statistics and specialized metrics for the problem, such as average and standard deviation borehole image intensity in the cavity, provides customizability to work with multiple types of borehole images and with varying initial depth guess uncertainties. Overall, the use of fast and automated methodology for depth verification opens up avenues for near real-time combined sidewall coring, imaging, and verification workflows. The novelty in this study lies in using a combination of image processing techniques and statistical analysis to automate an established manual workflow. The automated workflow provides consistent results in minutes rather than hours. Results also incorporate a confidence index estimation.


2021 ◽  
pp. 165-180
Author(s):  
Timothy E. Essington

The chapter “Bayesian Statistics” gives a brief overview of the Bayesian approach to statistical analysis. It starts off by examining the difference between frequentist statistics and Bayesian statistics. Next, it introduces Bayes’ theorem and explains how the theorem is used in statistics and model selection, with the prosecutor’s fallacy given as a practice example. The chapter then goes on to discuss priors and Bayesian parameter estimation. It concludes with some final thoughts on Bayesian approaches. The chapter does not answer the question “Should ecologists become Bayesian?” However, to the extent that alternative models can be posed as alternative values of parameters, Bayesian parameter estimation can help assign probabilities to those hypotheses.


2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 289-312
Author(s):  
Edgar Santos-Fernandez ◽  
Paul Wu ◽  
Kerrie L. Mengersen

AbstractBayesian methods are becoming increasingly popular in sports analytics. Identified advantages of the Bayesian approach include the ability to model complex problems, obtain probabilistic estimates and predictions that account for uncertainty, combine information sources and update learning as new data become available. The volume and variety of data produced in sports activities over recent years and the availability of software packages for Bayesian computation have contributed significantly to this growth. This comprehensive survey reviews and characterizes the latest advances in Bayesian statistics in sports, including methods and applications. We found that a large proportion of these articles focus on modeling/predicting the outcome of sports games and on the development of statistics that provides a better picture of athletes’ performance. We provide a description of some of the advances in basketball, football and baseball. We also summarise the sources of data used for the analysis and the most commonly used software for Bayesian computation. We found a similar number of publications between 2013 and 2018 as compared to those published in the three previous decades, which is an indication of the growing adoption rate of Bayesian methods in sports.


1998 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 215-216 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Rindskopf

Unfortunately, reading Chow's work is likely to leave the reader more confused than enlightened. My preferred solutions to the “controversy” about null- hypothesis testing are: (1) recognize that we really want to test the hypothesis that an effect is “small,” not null, and (2) use Bayesian methods, which are much more in keeping with the way humans naturally think than are classical statistical methods.


Author(s):  
Bradley E. Alger

This chapter covers the basics of Bayesian statistics, emphasizing the conceptual framework for Bayes’ Theorem. It works through several iterations of the theorem to demonstrate how the same equation is applied in different circumstances, from constructing and updating models to parameter evaluation, to try to establish an intuitive feel for it. The chapter also covers the philosophical underpinnings of Bayesianism and compares them with the frequentist perspective described in Chapter 5. It addresses the question of whether Bayesians are inductivists. Finally, the chapter shows how the Bayesian procedures of model selection and comparison can be pressed into service to allow Bayesian methods to be used in hypothesis testing in essentially the same way that various p-tests are used in the frequentist hypothesis testing framework.


2018 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
pp. 435-453 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erik Otárola-Castillo ◽  
Melissa G. Torquato

Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is the most common statistical framework used by scientists, including archaeologists. Owing to increasing dissatisfaction, however, Bayesian inference has become an alternative to these methods. In this article, we review the application of Bayesian statistics to archaeology. We begin with a simple example to demonstrate the differences in applying NHST and Bayesian inference to an archaeological problem. Next, we formally define NHST and Bayesian inference, provide a brief historical overview of their development, and discuss the advantages and limitations of each method. A review of Bayesian inference and archaeology follows, highlighting the applications of Bayesian methods to chronological, bioarchaeological, zooarchaeological, ceramic, lithic, and spatial analyses. We close by considering the future applications of Bayesian statistics to archaeological research.


2019 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott M. Lynch ◽  
Bryce Bartlett

Although Bayes’ theorem has been around for more than 250 years, widespread application of the Bayesian approach only began in statistics in 1990. By 2000, Bayesian statistics had made considerable headway into social science, but even now its direct use is rare in articles in top sociology journals, perhaps because of a lack of knowledge about the topic. In this review, we provide an overview of the key ideas and terminology of Bayesian statistics, and we discuss articles in the top journals that have used or developed Bayesian methods over the last decade. In this process, we elucidate some of the advantages of the Bayesian approach. We highlight that many sociologists are, in fact, using Bayesian methods, even if they do not realize it, because techniques deployed by popular software packages often involve Bayesian logic and/or computation. Finally, we conclude by briefly discussing the future of Bayesian statistics in sociology.


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