Priors for Macroeconomic Time Series and Their Application

This paper takes up Bayesian inference in a general trend stationary model for macroeconomic time series with independent Student-t disturbances. The model is linear in the data, but nonlinear in parameters. An informative but nonconjugate family of prior distributions for the parameters is introduced, indexed by a single parameter that can be readily elicited. The main technical contribution is the construction of posterior moments, densities, and odd ratios by using a six-step Gibbs sampler. Mappings from the index parameter of the family of prior distribution to posterior moments, densities, and odds ratios are developed for several of the Nelson–Plosser time series. These mappings show that the posterior distribution is not even approximately Gaussian, and they indicate the sensitivity of the posterior odds ratio in favor of difference stationarity to the choice of the prior distribution.

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Jeffreys-Bayes posterior odds ratio and the Akaike information criterion for discriminating between models

Economics Letters ◽

10.1016/0165-1765(78)90008-3 ◽

1978 ◽

Vol 1 (4) ◽

pp. 337-342 ◽

Cited By ~ 17

Author(s):

Arnold Zellner

Keyword(s):

Akaike Information Criterion ◽

Odds Ratio ◽

Information Criterion ◽

Posterior Odds ◽

Posterior Odds Ratio

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A Bayesian Analysis Of The Unit Root Hypothesis Within An Unobserved Components Model

Econometric Theory ◽

10.1017/s0266466600008665 ◽

1994 ◽

Vol 10 (3-4) ◽

pp. 552-578 ◽

Cited By ~ 24

Author(s):

Eric Zivot

Keyword(s):

Bayesian Analysis ◽

Unit Root ◽

Odds Ratio ◽

Unit Roots ◽

Ratio Test ◽

Structural Representation ◽

Unobserved Components ◽

Posterior Odds ◽

Posterior Odds Ratio ◽

Unobserved Components Model

In this paper we extend some of Phillips's [4] results to nonlinear unobserved components models and develop a posterior odds ratio test of the unit root hypothesis based on flat and Jeffreys priors. In contrast to the analysis presented by Schotman and van Dijk [9], we utilize a nondegenerate structural representation of the components model that allows us to determine well-behaved Jeffreys priors, posterior densities under flat priors and Jeffreys priors, and posterior odds ratios for the unit root hypothesis without a proper prior for the level parameter. The analysis highlights the importance of the treatment of initial values for inference concerning stationarity and unit roots.

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Contribution to the discussion of A. Zellner and A. Siow “Posterior odds ratio for selected regression hypotheses”

Trabajos de Estadistica y de Investigacion Operativa ◽

10.1007/bf02890846 ◽

1981 ◽

Vol 32 (3) ◽

pp. 149-150 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

I. J. Good

Keyword(s):

Odds Ratio ◽

Posterior Odds ◽

Posterior Odds Ratio

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Salud oral y déficit nutricional en adultos mayores no institucionalizados en Londrina, Paraná, Brasil

Revista Brasileira de Epidemiologia ◽

10.1590/s1415-790x2010000300007 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 13 (3) ◽

pp. 434-445 ◽

Cited By ~ 16

Author(s):

Arthur Eumann Mesas ◽

Selma Maffei de Andrade ◽

Marcos Aparecido Sarria Cabrera ◽

Vera Lúcia Ribeiro de Carvalho Bueno

Keyword(s):

Oral Health ◽

Odds Ratio ◽

Health Assessment ◽

Posterior Odds ◽

Assessment Index ◽

Posterior Odds Ratio

OBJETIVO: Examinar la asociación entre el déficit nutricional y problemas de salud oral en adultos mayores no institucionalizados de una comunidad en Brasil. MÉTODOS: En este estudio transversal fueron obtenidos datos de 267 adultos mayores (160 mujeres y 107 hombres) con edad entre los 60 y 74 años provenientes del censo del área de cobertura de un Equipo del Programa Salud de la Familia de Londrina, Brasil. El déficit nutricional fue identificado con la Mini Evaluación Nutricional (< 24 puntos). La valoración odontológica incluyó exploración bucodental, medición del flujo salivar estimulado y aplicación del Geriatric Oral Health Assessment Index para la percepción oral. Los análisis multivariantes fueron ajustados por variables sociodemográficas, depresión y consumo de medicamentos. RESULTADOS: El déficit nutricional fue detectado en 58 ancianos (21,7%). Entre las variables odontológicas, la ausencia de oclusión posterior (Odds Ratio, OR: 2,18; Intervalo de Confianza, IC95%: 1,06 - 4,45), el flujo salivar estimulado < 0,7 ml/minuto (OR: 2,18, IC95%: 1,06 - 4,50), la enfermedad periodontal avanzada (OR: 6,54; IC95%: 2,03 -21,00) y la percepción negativa de la salud oral (OR: 3,41; IC95%: 1,59 - 7,33) se asociaron al déficit nutricional de modo independiente del sexo, edad, clase económica, escolaridad, consumo de tabaco, depresión y uso de medicamentos. CONCLUSIONES: El deterioro de la salud oral se asoció al déficit nutricional, y por lo tanto se requiere mayor integración entre odontología y nutrición en la promoción de salud en adultos mayores, especialmente en la prevención de la pérdida dental y en la rehabilitación oclusal posterior, evitándose obstáculos para una dieta adecuada.

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Forecasting Financial Time Series using a Hybrid Non-stationary Model with ANN

International Journal of Computer Sciences and Engineering ◽

10.26438/ijcse/v7i1.323326 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 7 (1) ◽

pp. 323-326

Author(s):

D.K.Shetty . ◽

B.Ismail .

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Financial Time Series ◽

Stationary Model ◽

Financial Time

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The Association of Familial Hypertension and Risk of Gestational Hypertension and Preeclampsia

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph18137045 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 18 (13) ◽

pp. 7045

Author(s):

Małgorzata Lewandowska

Keyword(s):

Risk Factor ◽

Pregnant Women ◽

Odds Ratio ◽

Independent Risk Factor ◽

Gestational Hypertension ◽

First Trimester ◽

Chronic Hypertension ◽

Modifiable Factors ◽

The Family ◽

Maternal Hypertension

It has not been established how history of hypertension in the father or mother of pregnant women, combined with obesity or smoking, affects the risk of main forms of pregnancy-induced hypertension. A cohort of 912 pregnant women, recruited in the first trimester, was assessed; 113 (12.4%) women developed gestational hypertension (GH), 24 (2.6%) developed preeclampsia (PE) and 775 women remained normotensive (a control group). Multiple logistic regression was used to calculate adjusted odds ratios (AOR) (and 95% confidence intervals) of GH and PE for chronic hypertension in the father or mother of pregnant women. Some differences were discovered. (1) Paternal hypertension (vs. absence of hypertension in the family) was an independent risk factor for GH (AOR-a = 1.98 (1.2–3.28), p = 0.008). This odds ratio increased in pregnant women who smoked in the first trimester (AOR-a = 4.71 (1.01–21.96); p = 0.048) or smoked before pregnancy (AOR-a = 3.15 (1.16–8.54); p = 0.024), or had pre-pregnancy overweight (AOR-a = 2.67 (1.02–7.02); p = 0.046). (2) Maternal hypertension (vs. absence of hypertension in the family) was an independent risk factor for preeclampsia (PE) (AOR-a = 3.26 (1.3–8.16); p = 0.012). This odds ratio increased in the obese women (AOR-a = 6.51 (1.05–40.25); p = 0.044) and (paradoxically) in women who had never smoked (AOR-a = 5.31 (1.91–14.8); p = 0.001). Conclusions: Chronic hypertension in the father or mother affected the risk of preeclampsia and gestational hypertension in different ways. Modifiable factors (overweight/obesity and smoking) may exacerbate the relationships in question, however, paradoxically, beneficial effects of smoking for preeclampsia risk are also possible. Importantly, paternal and maternal hypertension were not independent risk factors for GH/PE in a subgroup of women with normal body mass index (BMI).

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