scholarly journals Transmission dynamics of foot and mouth disease in selected outbreak areas of northwest Ethiopia

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Tadesse ◽  
W. Molla ◽  
A. Mengsitu ◽  
W. T. Jemberu
Keyword(s):  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Dairy Farms ◽  
Northwest Ethiopia ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Basic Reproduction Ratio ◽  
Sir Epidemic Model ◽  
Reproduction Ratio ◽  
Transmission Parameters ◽  
Foot And Mouth

AbstractFoot and mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious and economically important disease of cloven-hoofed animals, which is endemic in Ethiopia. An outbreak follow-up study was undertaken to quantify the transmission parameters of FMD in the crop–livestock mixed (CLM) system and commercial dairy farms in selected areas of northwest Ethiopia. The transmission parameters were quantified using a generalised linear model (GLM) based on a susceptible–infectious–recovered (SIR) epidemic model. The per day average transmission rate between animals was 0.26 (95% CI 0.22–0.32) and 0.33 (95% CI 0.21–0.57) in the CLM system and in the commercial dairy farms, respectively. The average basic reproduction ratio of FMD was 1.68 (95% CI 1.42–2.07) in the CLM system and 1.98 (95% CI 1.26–3.42) in the commercial dairy farms. The medium per day transmission rate and moderate basic reproduction ratio observed in this study indicated that a vaccination coverage needed to stop transmission of the disease in these populations might not be very high.

scholarly journals Transmission dynamics of lumpy skin disease in Ethiopia

2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (13) ◽  
pp. 2856-2863 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. MOLLA ◽  
K. FRANKENA ◽  
M. C. M. DE JONG
Keyword(s):  
Production System ◽  
Skin Disease ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Severe Disease ◽  
Livestock Production ◽  
Sir Epidemic Model ◽  
Reproduction Ratio ◽  
Lumpy Skin Disease ◽  
Transmission Parameters ◽  
Intensive Production

SUMMARYLumpy skin disease (LSD) is a severe disease of cattle caused by a Capripoxvirus and often caused epidemics in Ethiopia and many other countries. This study was undertaken to quantify the transmission between animals and to estimate the infection reproduction ratio in a predominantly mixed crop–livestock system and in intensive commercial herd types. The transmission parameters were based on a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) epidemic model with environmental transmission and estimated using generalized linear models. The transmission parameters were estimated using a survival rate of infectious virus in the environment equal to 0·325 per day, a value based on the best-fitting statistical model. The transmission rate parameter between animals was 0·072 (95% CI 0·068–0·076) per day in the crop–livestock production system, whereas this transmission rate in intensive production system was 0·076 (95% CI 0·068–0·085) per day. The reproduction ratio (R) of LSD between animals in the crop–livestock production system was 1·07, whereas it was 1·09 between animals in the intensive production system. The calculated R provides a baseline against which various control options can be assessed for efficacy.

scholarly journals Seroprevalence of foot-and-mouth disease in large ruminants in periurban dairy farms near Islamabad, Pakistan

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Umer Farooq ◽  
Aman Ullah ◽  
Hamid Irshad ◽  
Asma Latif ◽  
Khalid Naeem ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bos Taurus ◽  
Nonstructural Protein ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Dairy Farms ◽  
Viral Disease ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Serum Samples ◽  
Fmd Virus ◽  
Bos Taurus Indicus ◽  
Foot And Mouth

AbstractBackgroundFoot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is an enzootic viral disease affecting livestock in Pakistan.ObjectivesTo determine the seroprevalence of FMD in large ruminants in periurban dairy farms near Islamabad.MethodsSerum samples were collected from 636 large ruminants during 2011 to 2012; 584 (92%) were buffaloes (Bos bubalis bubalis) and 52 (18%) were cattle (Bos taurus indicus). The population sampled was mainly adult (n = 514) and female (n = 596). Sera were assayed for antibodies against a nonstructural protein of the FMD virus using a Chekit FMD-3ABC bo-ov enzyme immunoassay Kit (Idexx Laboratories). Data were analyzed using a χResultsThe seroprevalence of FMD in the ruminants was 46% (n = 293, 95% confidence interval (CI); 42.18- 49.95) and was significantly higher in buffaloes (285, 97%; χConclusionsLarge ruminants in periurban dairy farms near Islamabad have a high FMD virus seroprevalence and play a potential role in the persistence and transmission of FMD in Pakistan.

scholarly journals Failure of vaccination to prevent outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease

1996 ◽  
Vol 116 (3) ◽  
pp. 363-371 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. E. J. Woolhouse ◽  
D. T. Haydon ◽  
A. Pearson ◽  
R. P. Kitching
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Time Course ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Protective Antibodies ◽  
Cattle Herds

SUMMARYOutbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease persist in dairy cattle herds in Saudi Arabia despite revaccination at intervals of 4–6 months. Vaccine trials provide data on antibody responses following vaccination. Using this information we developed a mathematical model of the decay of protective antibodies with which we estimated the fraction of susceptible animals at a given time after vaccination. The model describes the data well, suggesting over 95% take with an antibody half-life of 43 days. Farm records provided data on the time course of five outbreaks. We applied a ‘SLIR’ epidemiological model to these data, fitting a single parameter representing disease transmission rate. The analysis provides estimates of the basic reproduction number,R0, which may exceed 70 in some cases. We conclude that the critical intervaccination interval which would provide herd immunity against FMDV is unrealistically short, especially for heterologous challenge. We suggest that it may not be possible to prevent foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks on these farms using currently available vaccines.

scholarly journals A realistic model for the periodic dynamics of the hand-foot-and-mouth disease

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 2585-2601
Author(s):  
I. A. Moneim ◽  
◽  
G. A. Mosa
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Vaccination Strategy ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Good Prediction ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Simulation Results

<abstract><p>In this paper, an SEIQRS model with a periodic vaccination strategy is studied for the dynamics of the Hand-Foot-and-Mouth Disease (HFMD). This model incorporates a seasonal variation in the disease transmission rate $ \beta (t) $. Our model has a unique disease free periodic solution (DFPS). The basic reproductive number $ R_{0} $ and its lower and upper bounds, $ R_{0}^{inf} $ and $ R_{0}^{sup} $ respectively, are defined. We show that the DFPS is globally asymptotically stable when $ R_{0}^{sup} &lt; 1 $ and unstable if $ R_{0}^{inf} &gt; 1 $. Computer simulations of our model have been conducted using a novel periodic function of the contact rate. This novel function imitates the seasonality in the observed, multi-peaks pattern, data. Clear and good matching between real data and the obtained simulation results are shown. The obtained simulation results give a good prediction and possible control of the disease dynamics.</p></abstract>

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