Potential impact of global warming on seed bank, dormancy and germination of three succulent species from the Chihuahuan Desert

2018 ◽  
Vol 28 (4) ◽  
pp. 312-318 ◽  
Author(s):  
José Luis Aragón-Gastélum ◽  
Joel Flores ◽  
Enrique Jurado ◽  
Hugo M. Ramírez-Tobías ◽  
Erika Robles-Díaz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Soil Temperature ◽  
Seed Bank ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Chihuahuan Desert ◽  
Physiological Mechanism ◽  
Seed Banks ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
High Germination

AbstractWe assessed inter-seasonal dynamics of seed banks, dormancy and seed germination in three endemic Chihuahuan Desert succulent species, under simulated soil warming conditions. Hexagonal open top-chambers (OTCs) were used to increase soil temperature. Seeds ofEchinocactus platyacanthus(Cactaceae),Yucca filiferaandAgave striata(Asparagaceae) were collected and buried within and outside OTCs. During the course of one year, at the end of each season, seed batches were exhumed to test viability and germination. Soil temperature in OTCs was higher than in control plots.Yucca filiferaseeds always had high germination independently of warming treatment and season.Agave striataseeds from OTCs had higher germination than those from control plots.Agave striataexhibited low germination in fresh seeds, but high germination in spring. Seeds from this species lost viability throughout the experimental timeframe, and had no viable seeds remaining in the soil.Echinocactus platyacanthusshowed high germination in fresh seeds and displayed dormancy cycling, leading to high germination in spring, low germination in summer and autumn, and high germination in winter. Germination of this species was also higher in seeds from OTCs than those from control plots.Echinocactus platyacanthusformed soil seed banks and its cycle of inter-seasonal dormancy/germination could be an efficient physiological mechanism in a climate change scenario. Under global warming projections, our results suggest that future temperatures may still fall within the three studied species’ thermal germination range. However, higher germination forA. striataandE. platyacanthusat warmer temperatures may reduce the number of seeds retained in the seed bank, and this could be interpreted as limiting their ability to spread risk over time. This is the first experimental study projecting an increase in soil temperature to assess population traits of succulent plants under a climate change scenario for American deserts.

scholarly journals Discussing Anthropogenic Global Warming from an Econometric Perspective: A Change in Forecasting Based on the ARIMA Paleoclimate Time Series Model

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gilmar Veriato Fluzer Santos ◽  
Lucas Gamalel Cordeiro ◽  
Claudio Antonio Rojo ◽  
Edison Luiz Leismann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Scientific Community ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Autoregressive Process ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Model Parameters

Abstract Global warming has divided the scientific community worldwide with predominance for anthropogenic alarmism. This article aims to project a climate change scenario using a stochastic model of paleotemperature time series and compare it with the dominant thesis. The ARIMA model – an integrated autoregressive process of moving averages, known as Box-Jenkins - was used for this purpose. The results showed that the estimates of the model parameters were below 1°C for a scenario of 100 years which suggests a period of temperature reduction and a probable cooling, contrary to the prediction of the IPCC and the anthropogenic current of an increase in 1.50° C to 2.0° C by the end of this century. Thus, we hope with this study to contribute to the discussion by adding a statistical element of paleoclimate in counterpoint to the current consensus and to placing the debate in a long-term historical dimension, in line with other research present in climate sciences and statistics.

scholarly journals Simulating Agroforestry Adoption in Rural Indonesia: The Potential of Trees on Farms for Livelihoods and Environment

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 385
Author(s):  
Beatrice Nöldeke ◽  
Etti Winter ◽  
Yves Laumonier ◽  
Trifosa Simamora
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Agroforestry System ◽  
Environmental Benefits ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Trees On Farms ◽  
Agroforestry Adoption ◽  
Mitigate Climate Change ◽  
Small Scale Farmers

In recent years, agroforestry has gained increasing attention as an option to simultaneously alleviate poverty, provide ecological benefits, and mitigate climate change. The present study simulates small-scale farmers’ agroforestry adoption decisions to investigate the consequences for livelihoods and the environment over time. To explore the interdependencies between agroforestry adoption, livelihoods, and the environment, an agent-based model adjusted to a case study area in rural Indonesia was implemented. Thereby, the model compares different scenarios, including a climate change scenario. The agroforestry system under investigation consists of an illipe (Shorea stenoptera) rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) mix, which are both locally valued tree species. The simulations reveal that farmers who adopt agroforestry diversify their livelihood portfolio while increasing income. Additionally, the model predicts environmental benefits: enhanced biodiversity and higher carbon sequestration in the landscape. The benefits of agroforestry for livelihoods and nature gain particular importance in the climate change scenario. The results therefore provide policy-makers and practitioners with insights into the dynamic economic and environmental advantages of promoting agroforestry.

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