Forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election: Leading Economic Indicators, Polls, and the Vote

2020 ◽  
Vol 54 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-58
Author(s):  
Robert S. Erikson ◽  
Christopher Wlezien
2009 ◽  
Vol 42 (01) ◽  
pp. 22
Author(s):  
Robert S. Erikson ◽  
Christopher Wlezien

The October 2008 issue ofPSpublished a symposium of presidential and congressional forecasts made in the summer leading up to the election. This article is an assessment of the accuracy of their models.Prior to the 2008 presidential election we provided forecasts of the final vote relying on a model containing only two variables: (1) the cumulated weighted growth in leading economic indicators (LEI) through the thirteenth quarter of the sitting president's term; and (2) the incumbent party candidate's share in the most recent trial-heat polls. The novelty is the reliance on the advanced reading of the economy from the quarter ending in March of the election year. (The exact equation and the exact forecast change as the poll readings get closer to the election.) Our final forecast (Erikson and Wlezien 2008) based on trial-heat polls in August was that Barack Obama would win 52.2% of the two-party popular vote. This turned out to be quite close to the Election Day outcome of 53.5% (as of December 2), a little more than one percentage point above what we predicted.


1989 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 351-394 ◽  
Author(s):  
James H. Stock ◽  
Mark W. Watson

2018 ◽  
pp. 206-210
Author(s):  
LIA TOTLADZE

It is important to predict trends of economic development for any country. Researchers and practitioners use different ways for evaluation and forecasting economic activity. Identification of indicators, which change impact on the economy in general, is one of the widespread methods. The most appropriate tools to solve this problem are the leading indicators and indexes based on leading indicators. The selection of indicators depends on the specificity of the country’s economy. Among the leading economic indicators is the dynamics of applications for the Building permissions for private houses, and can also be successfully use residential transactions. Depending on the above, the paper deals the aspects of calculation of leading economic indicators. This paper analyses some aspects of the effectiveness of indicator for predicting economic activity and describes the methodological issues forward leading indicators. Particular attention is paid to analysis of residential transactions dynamics as a leading indicator as in theoretical as in practical terms. The article highlights the peculiarities of its implementation in Georgia.


2008 ◽  
Vol 41 (04) ◽  
pp. 703-707 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert S. Erikson ◽  
Christopher Wlezien

On the eve of the election, the impending result of the presidential vote can be seen fairly clearly from trial-heat polls. Earlier in the election year, the polls offer much less information about what will happen on Election Day (see Campbell 2008; Wlezien and Erikson 2002). The polls capture preferences to the moment and do not—because they cannot—anticipate how preferences will evolve in the future, as the campaign unfolds. Various things ultimately impact the final vote. The standing of the sitting president is important. The economy is too. Both can change as the election cycle evolves. To make matters worse, late-arriving economic shocks have a bigger impact on the electoral verdict than those that arrive earlier. This complicates accurately forecasting the vote well in advance.


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