Leading Economic Indicators, the Polls, and the Presidential Vote

2008 ◽  
Vol 41 (04) ◽  
pp. 703-707 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert S. Erikson ◽  
Christopher Wlezien
Keyword(s):  
Economic Indicators ◽  
Economic Shocks ◽  
Election Cycle ◽  
The Future ◽  
Leading Economic Indicators ◽  
The Moment

On the eve of the election, the impending result of the presidential vote can be seen fairly clearly from trial-heat polls. Earlier in the election year, the polls offer much less information about what will happen on Election Day (see Campbell 2008; Wlezien and Erikson 2002). The polls capture preferences to the moment and do not—because they cannot—anticipate how preferences will evolve in the future, as the campaign unfolds. Various things ultimately impact the final vote. The standing of the sitting president is important. The economy is too. Both can change as the election cycle evolves. To make matters worse, late-arriving economic shocks have a bigger impact on the electoral verdict than those that arrive earlier. This complicates accurately forecasting the vote well in advance.

Chelovek.RU/Человек.RU

Chelovek RU ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 18-53
Author(s):  
Sergei Avanesov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Family History ◽  
Great Distance ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
The Past ◽  
Russian Philosopher ◽  
True Meaning ◽  
The Future ◽  
Pavel Florensky ◽  
The Moment

Abstract. The article analyzes the autobiography of the famous Russian philosopher, theologian and scientist Pavel Florensky, as well as those of his texts that retain traces of memories. According to Florensky, the personal biography is based on family history and continues in children. He addresses his own biography to his children. Memories based on diary entries are designed as a memory diary, that is, as material for future memories. The past becomes actual in autobiography, turns into a kind of present. The past, from the point of view of its realization in the present, gains meaning and significance. The au-thor is active in relation to his own past, transforming it from a collection of disparate facts into a se-quence of events. A person can only see the true meaning of such events from a great distance. Therefore, the philosopher remembers not so much the circumstances of his life as the inner impressions of the en-counter with reality. The most powerful personality-forming experiences are associated with childhood. Even the moment of birth can decisively affect the character of a person and the range of his interests. The foundations of a person's worldview are laid precisely in childhood. Florensky not only writes mem-oirs about himself, but also tries to analyze the problems of time and memory. A person is immersed in time, but he is able to move into the past through memory and into the future through faith. An autobi-ography can never be written to the end because its author lives on. However, reaching the depths of life, he is able to build his path in such a way that at the end of this path he will unite with the fullness of time, with eternity.

scholarly journals Agritourism—A Business Reality of the Moment for Romanian Rural Area’s Sustainability

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 6313
Author(s):  
Ramona Ciolac ◽  
Tiberiu Iancu ◽  
Ioan Brad ◽  
Tabita Adamov ◽  
Nicoleta Mateoc-Sîrb
Keyword(s):  
Rural Communities ◽  
Distribution Channels ◽  
Scientific Paper ◽  
Business Owners ◽  
The Future ◽  
Tourism Potential ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Managerial Experience ◽  
Over Time

The agritourism activity can be a characteristic reality of the present, considering rural area’s sustainability, being at the same time a business reality for rural entrepreneurs and a “must have” for rural communities that have tourism potential. It is a form of tourism, through which the tourist can receive a qualitative product at a reasonable price, but also a field that can ensure sustainable development over time, being at the same time environmentally friendly. The purpose of this scientific paper is to identify the aspects that make agritourism “a possible business reality of the moment”, for Romanian rural area’s sustainability. We take into account the following areas: Bran-Moieciu area—considered “the oldest” in terms of agritourism experience, and Apuseni Mountains area, with a great inclination and potential for this activity. The study conducted for these two areas is focused on several aspects: the degree of involvement in agritourism activities, considering the number of years and managerial experience, the analysis of the types of activities/experiences offered by agritourism structures, the identification of the main reasons/motivations for the orientation towards agritourism and the manner in which this field is perceived. Aspects related to the marketing-finance part of the agritourism business are also taken into account: customers, distribution channels, financial sources, shortcomings observed by agritourism business owners and possible action directions so as to improve the activity/agritourism product. Agritourism may be “a possible business reality of the moment” for the studied areas and not only, but in the future, the entrepreneur/farmer must be constantly updated because of the changing situations that appear on the market, be able to make sustainable decisions for his/her own business, which in the future will ensure its viability and obviously its long-term profitability and development, and in the same time rural area’s sustainability.

Instituting Europe: Germany, the Union, and the Legacy of the Short Century

2001 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
Michael Werz
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Democratic Legitimacy ◽  
Social Changes ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Institutional Reforms ◽  
Crucial Question ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Federal Structure

Recent debates about the future of the European Union have focusedin large part on institutional reforms, the deficit of democratic legitimacy,and the problem of economic and agrarian policies. As importantas these issues may be, the most crucial question at the momentis not whether Europe will prevail as a union of nations or as a thoroughlyintegrated federal structure. What is of much greater concernis the fact that political structures and their corresponding politicaldiscourses have lagged far behind the social changes occurring inEuropean societies. The pivotal transformation of 1989 has not beengrasped intellectually or politically, even though its results areincreasingly visible in both the east and west.

scholarly journals New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators

1989 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 351-394 ◽  
Author(s):  
James H. Stock ◽  
Mark W. Watson
Keyword(s):  
Economic Indicators ◽  
Leading Economic Indicators

Deadlock or new opening? Current state and prospects for development of Lithuanian-Belarusian relations

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 121-141
Author(s):  
Justyna Olędzka
Keyword(s):  
International Relations ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Future Prospects ◽  
Bilateral Relations ◽  
Current State ◽  
The Future ◽  
Multi Level ◽  
The Moment ◽  
The Eu

The purpose of this article is to discuss the trajectory of Belarusian-Lithuanian relations with a particular focus on the period after the 2020 Belarusian presidential election, which resulted in a change in international relations in the region. This was the moment that redefined the Lithuanian-Belarusian relations, which until 2020 were satisfactory for both sides (especially in the economic aspect). However, Lithuania began to pursue a reactive policy of promoting the democratisation of Belarus and provided multi-level support to Belarusian opposition forces. The current problems in bilateral relations (e.g., the future of Belarusian Nuclear Power Plant located in Astravyets) have been put on the agenda for discussion at the EU level, while the instruments of a hybrid conflict in the form of an influx of immigrants into Lithuania, controlled by the Belarusian regime, have become a key issue for the future prospects of relations between Belarus and Lithuania.

scholarly journals CATEGORY OF FUTURALITY WITHIN THE SYSTEM OF MODUS CATEGORIES

2019 ◽  
pp. 38-44
Author(s):  
Inga Kirkovs’ka
Keyword(s):  
Subject Matter ◽  
French Language ◽  
Communicative Function ◽  
Action Event ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Future 2

The aim of the investigation under consideration is to study the nature of the category of futurality within the system of modus categories in the French language. The object of the work is the category of futurality in contemporary French, the subject is the study of the category of futurality in contemporary French within the system of modus categories of evidentiality, modality and persuasiveness. In the course of the study, the distinctions between modality and modus have been outlined, the place of the category of futurality within the modus categories has been identified, the peculiarity of the category of futurality as a modus category has been analysed. Conclusions: the peculiarity of futurality as a modus category is that it belongs to the modus categories denoting action/event, real in the future “in the speaker’s view”. In this sense the category of futurality is closer to the categories of modality (real information stated by the speaker) and predicativity (confidence in the information stated by the speaker) in meaning, whereas differing from them by the semantics of the stated temporality denoting the relation of consequence in reference to the moment of speaking. The category of futurality is connected with other modus categories: category of assertion with semantics of neutral prospection, category of persuasiveness with the seme of assurance in reference to the future and category of modality with the seme of reality in reference to the future. The major types of modal meanings forming the modus category of futurality are: 1) speaker’s estimation of the subject matter of the utterance from the perspective of reality/irreality in the future; 2) estimation of the environment of the utterance from the perspective of probability/necessity/desirability in the future; 3) speaker’s estimation of the level of assurance (persuasiveness) of the subject matter of the utterance from the perspective of the future; 4) communicative function of the utterance defined by the purpose of the speaker from the perspective of the future (wish, intention, preference); 5) confirmation/negation of objective relations between objects, phenomena, events of the future. 

BAD RESULTS OF DRUNKEN COPULATION—REDISCOVERED?

PEDIATRICS ◽  
1979 ◽  
Vol 63 (2) ◽  
pp. 278-278
Author(s):  
Henry J. Berkely
Keyword(s):  
Normal Development ◽  
Practical Interest ◽  
Human Being ◽  
Good Service ◽  
Brand Marks ◽  
The Family ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Period Of Gestation ◽  
Deleterious Influence

The lession taught by the study is of much practical interest in demonstrating that drugs, particularly of the ethereal alcohol series, may exert an undoubtedly deleterious influence upon the embryo during the period of gestation—an influence that in the human being should be carefully shunned if the future of the race is to be regarded. The influences of alcohol upon the normal development of the foetus has been recognised and commented upon in various classic works (Plutarch et al). "A drunkard is unprofitable for any kind of good service," says Plato—and least of all in the begetting of children. Intemperance in pronounced degree on one side of the family usually results in mental feebleness of the children. When both parents are equally at fault, the progeny usually show well-defined brand-marks. It is a well-recognized fact that drunkenness at the moment of copulation is frequently responsible for the lowest forms of congenital idiocy.

‘Your memorials shall survive the grave’: elegy and remembrance

2018 ◽  
pp. 118-149
Author(s):  
Alison Morgan
Keyword(s):  
Central Feature ◽  
Self Awareness ◽  
The Public ◽  
Vernacular Culture ◽  
The Future ◽  
Broadside Ballads ◽  
The Dead ◽  
The Moment ◽  
The Way

The sixteen ballads and songs within this section fall into two camps: elegy and remembrance. Whilst a central feature of elegiac poetry is the way in which it remembers or memorialises the dead, the dead a poem which is one of remembrance is not necessarily an elegy. Several of the songs herein use the date of Peterloo as a temporal marker – with an eye both on the contemporaneous reader or audience and the future reader. Included in this section are broadside ballads by Michael Wilson and elegies by Samuel Bamford and Peter Pindar. These songs display a self-awareness in their significance in marking the moment for posterity and in their attempts to reach an audience beyond Manchester and ensure that the public knew what had happened on 16th August as well as preserving the event in English vernacular culture. It is also a quest for ownership of the narrative of the day; the speed with which so many of these songs were written and published not only suggests the ferocity of emotions surrounding events but also the need to exert some control over the way in which they were represented.

Anticipation Dialogue Method in Participatory Design

2014 ◽  
pp. 315-330
Author(s):  
Jari Laarni ◽  
Iina Aaltonen
Keyword(s):  
Participatory Design ◽  
Communication Process ◽  
Future Perspective ◽  
Mutual Understanding ◽  
Collaborative Communication ◽  
Dialogic Communication ◽  
Complex Information ◽  
Complex Process ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Moment

In the design of complex information systems and social practices for different domains a balance between theory-driven and practice-driven approaches is at best developed in a collaborative communication process between designers, researchers, and other actors. The authors have developed the Anticipation Design Dialogue method within the context of participatory design, which is based on dialogic communication between different stakeholders. A dialogic relationship between them takes place in future workshops in which experiences of different stakeholders are integrated in a way that makes it possible to illustrate the situation from different perspectives. The workshop participants develop in small groups a vision of the future state in which the situation is imagined from the future perspective by considering which kind of problems they have at the moment and by which way the problems could be managed in the future. Secondly, reflective thinking is promoted by letting each group at the time present their ideas while others are listening. The authors have found that the development of mutual understanding between different stakeholders in these kinds of workshops is a complex process that needs time, and therefore, an iterative series of workshops is recommended.

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