scholarly journals Predicting large solar flares with data assimilation

2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (A29B) ◽  
pp. 734-734
Author(s):  
Antoine Strugarek ◽  
Paul Charbonneau
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Solar Flares ◽  
Self Organized ◽  
Self Organized Criticality ◽  
Sandpile Models

AbstractWe propose to use a deterministically-driven class of self-organized criticality sandpile models to carry out predictions of the largest, most dangerous, and hardest to predict solar flares.

Sandpile Models and Solar Flares: Eigenfunction Decomposition for Data Assimilation

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (S335) ◽  
pp. 250-253
Author(s):  
Antoine Strugarek ◽  
Allan S. Brun ◽  
Paul Charbonneau ◽  
Nicole Vilmer
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Solar Flares ◽  
Similar Distribution ◽  
Significant Challenge ◽  
Self Organized ◽  
Self Organized Criticality ◽  
Model Independent ◽  
Self Similar ◽  
Sandpile Models ◽  
Data Assimilation Technique

AbstractThe largest solar flares, of class X and above, are often associated with strong energetic particle acceleration. Based on the self-similar distribution of solar flares, self-organized criticality models such as sandpiles can be used to successfully reproduce their statistics. However, predicting strong (and rare) solar flares turns out to be a significant challenge. We build here on an original idea based on the combination of minimalistic flare models (sandpiles) and modern data assimilation techniques (4DVar) to predict large solar flares. We discuss how to represent a sandpile model over a reduced set of eigenfunctions to improve the efficiency of the data assimilation technique. This improvement is model-independent and continues to pave the way towards efficient near real-time solutions for predicting solar flares.

scholarly journals Renormalization scheme for self-organized criticality in sandpile models

1994 ◽  
Vol 72 (11) ◽  
pp. 1690-1693 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Pietronero ◽  
A. Vespignani ◽  
S. Zapperi
Keyword(s):  
Renormalization Scheme ◽  
Self Organized ◽  
Self Organized Criticality ◽  
Sandpile Models

STATISTICAL PROPERTIES OF SOLAR FLARES AND COMPARISON TO OTHER IMPULSIVE ENERGY RELEASE EVENTS

2009 ◽  
Vol 23 (28n29) ◽  
pp. 5609-5618 ◽  
Author(s):  
FABIO LEPRETI ◽  
VLADIMIR G. KOSSOBOKOV ◽  
VINCENZO CARBONE
Keyword(s):  
Solar Flare ◽  
Energy Release ◽  
Solar Flares ◽  
Statistical Properties ◽  
Universal Curve ◽  
Mhd Turbulence ◽  
Natural Systems ◽  
Self Organized ◽  
Self Organized Criticality ◽  
Impulsive Processes

Impulsive energy release events are observed in many natural systems. Solar flares are certainly among the most remarkable examples of such processes. In the last years the study of solar flare statistical properties has received considerable attention in the context of solar flare models based on different approaches, such as Self Organized Criticality (SOC) or magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence. In this talk the main statistical properties of solar flares will be presented and compared to those of other well known impulsive processes, such as earthquakes and soft γ-ray flashes occurring on neutron stars. It is shown that the these phenomena are characterized by different statistics that cannot be rescaled onto a single, universal curve and that this holds even for the same phenomenon, when observed in different periods or at different locations. Our results indicate apparent complexity of impulsive energy release processes, which neither follow a common behavior nor could be attributed to a universal physical mechanism.

Self‐organized Criticality from Separator Reconnection in Solar Flares

2000 ◽  
Vol 542 (2) ◽  
pp. 1088-1099 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. W. Longcope ◽  
E. J. Noonan
Keyword(s):  
Solar Flares ◽  
Self Organized ◽  
Self Organized Criticality

Reail Space Renormalization Group for Self Organized Criticality in Sandpile Models

1994 ◽  
Vol 367 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Zapperi ◽  
A. Vespignanit ◽  
L. Pietronero
Keyword(s):  
Renormalization Group ◽  
Stationary State ◽  
Group Approach ◽  
Self Organized ◽  
Change Of Scale ◽  
Renormalization Group Approach ◽  
Self Organized Criticality ◽  
Sandpile Models ◽  
Good Agreement

AbstractWe have introduced a new renormalization group approach that allows us to describe the critical stationary state of sandpile models (Phys. Rev. Lett. 72, 1690 (1994)). We define a characterization of the phase space in order to study the evolution of the dynamics under a change of scale. We obtain a non trivial actractive fixed point for the parameters of the model that clarifys the self organized critical nature of these models. We are able to compute the values of the critical exponents and the results are in good agreement with computer simulations. The method can be naturally extended to several other problems with non equilibrium stationary state.

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