Estimating NOx LOTOS-EUROS CTM Emission Parameters over the Northwest of South America through 4DEnVar TROPOMI NO2 Assimilation

In this work, we present the development of a 4D-Ensemble-Variational (4DEnVar) data assimilation technique to estimate NOx top-down emissions using the regional chemical transport model LOTOS-EUROS with the NO2 observations from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI). The assimilation was performed for a domain in the northwest of South America centered over Colombia, and includes regions in Panama, Venezuela and Ecuador. In the 4DEnVar approach, the implementation of the linearized and adjoint model are avoided by generating an ensemble of model simulations and by using this ensemble to approximate the nonlinear model and observation operator. Emission correction parameters’ locations were defined for positions where the model simulations showed significant discrepancies with the satellite observations. Using the 4DEnVar data assimilation method, optimal emission parameters for the LOTOS-EUROS model were estimated, allowing for corrections in areas where ground observations are unavailable and the region’s emission inventories do not correctly reflect the current emissions activities. The analyzed 4DEnVar concentrations were compared with the ground measurements of one local air quality monitoring network and the data retrieved by the satellite instrument Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). The assimilation had a low impact on NO2 surface concentrations reducing the Mean Fractional Bias from 0.45 to 0.32, primordially enhancing the spatial and temporal variations in the simulated NO2 fields.

Changes in Power Plant NOx Emissions over Northwest Greece Using a Data Assimilation Technique

In this work, we investigate the ability of a data assimilation technique and space-borne observations to quantify and monitor changes in nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions over Northwestern Greece for the summers of 2018 and 2019. In this region, four lignite-burning power plants are located. The data assimilation technique, based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter method, is employed to combine space-borne atmospheric observations from the high spatial resolution Sentinel-5 Precursor (S5P) Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) and simulations using the LOTOS-EUROS Chemical Transport model. The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service-Regional European emissions (CAMS-REG, version 4.2) inventory based on the year 2015 is used as the a priori emissions in the simulations. Surface measurements of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) from air quality stations operating in the region are compared with the model surface NO2 output using either the a priori (base run) or the a posteriori (assimilated run) NOx emissions. Relative to the a priori emissions, the assimilation suggests a strong decrease in concentrations for the station located near the largest power plant, by 80% in 2019 and by 67% in 2018. Concerning the estimated annual a posteriori NOx emissions, it was found that, for the pixels hosting the two largest power plants, the assimilated run results in emissions decreased by ~40–50% for 2018 compared to 2015, whereas a larger decrease, of ~70% for both power plants, was found for 2019, after assimilating the space-born observations. For the same power plants, the European Pollutant Release and Transfer Register (E-PRTR) reports decreased emissions in 2018 and 2019 compared to 2015 (−35% and −38% in 2018, −62% and −72% in 2019), in good agreement with the estimated emissions. We further compare the a posteriori emissions to the reported energy production of the power plants during the summer of 2018 and 2019. Mean decreases of about −35% and−63% in NOx emissions are estimated for the two larger power plants in summer of 2018 and 2019, respectively, which are supported by similar decreases in the reported energy production of the power plants (~−30% and −70%, respectively).

Changes in Power Plant NOx Emissions over Northwest Greece Using a Data Assimilation Technique

In this work, we investigate the ability of a data assimilation technique and space-borne observations to quantify and monitor changes in nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions over North-Western Greece for the summers of 2018 and 2019. In this region, four lignite-burning power plants are located. The data assimilation technique, based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter method, is employed to combine space-borne atmospheric observations from the high spatial resolution Sentinel-5 Precursor (S5P) Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) and simulations using the LOTOS-EUROS Chemical Transport model. The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service-Regional European emissions (CAMS-REG, version 4.2) inventory based on year 2015 is used as the a priori in the simulations. Surface measurements of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) from air quality stations operating in the region are compared with the model surface NO2 output using either the a priori (base run) or the a posteriori (assimilated run) NOx emissions. The high biases found between the in situ NO2 measurements and the base run surface NO2 decrease in the assimilated run in most cases. The bias in the station near the largest power plant decreases to 2.0 μg/m3 (2.83 μg/m3) from 10.5 μg/m3 (8.46 μg/m3) in 2019 (2018 respectively). Concerning the estimated annual a posteriori NOx emissions it was found that, for the pixels hosting the two largest power plants, the assimilated run results in emissions decreased by ~40-50% for 2018 compared to 2015, whereas a larger decrease, of ~70% for both power plants, was found for 2019, after assimilating the space-born observations. For the same power plants, the European Pollutant Release and Transfer Register (E-PRTR) reports decreased emissions in 2018 and 2019 compared to 2015 (-35% and -38% in 2018, -62% and -72% in 2019), in good agreement with the estimated emissions. We further compare the a posteriori emissions to the reported energy production of the power plants during the summer of 2018 and 2019. Mean decreases of about -35% and-63% in NOx emissions are estimated for the two larger power plants in summer of 2018 and 2019, respectively, which are supported by similar decreases in the reported energy production of the power plants (~-30% and -70%, respectively).

FES2014 global ocean tides atlas: design and performances

Since the mid-1990’s, a series of Finite Element Solution (FES) global ocean tidal atlases has been produced and released with the primary objective to provide altimetry missions with tidal de-aliasing correction at the best possible accuracy. We describe the underlying hydrodynamic and data assimilation designs for the last FES2014 release (finalized in early 2016), and some accuracy assessments especially for the altimetry de-aliasing purposes. The FES2014 atlas shows extremely significant improvements compared to the FES2004 (Lyard et al. 2006) and (intermediary) FES2012 atlases, in all ocean regions, especially in shelf and coastal seas; these advances are due to the unstructured grid flexible resolution, recent progress in the (prior to assimilation) hydrodynamic tidal solutions and to the use of an ensemble data assimilation technique. Compared to earlier releases, the FES2014 available tidal constituents spectrum has been significantly extended, the overall resolution augmented; some new additional scientific by-products have been derived from the atlas and are available, including the loading and self-attraction effects, energy diagnostics or the lowest astronomical tides . Compared to the other available global ocean tidal atlases, FES2014 clearly shows improved de-aliasing performances in most of the global ocean areas. It has consequently been integrated in satellite altimetry and gravimetry data processing, and adopted in recently renewed ITRF standards. It also provides very accurate open boundary tidal conditions for regional and coastal modelling.

Numerical Modeling of Marine Circulation with 4D Variational Data Assimilation

The technology is presented for modeling and prediction of marine hydrophysical fields based on the 4D variational data assimilation technique developed at the Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences (INM RAS). The technology is based on solving equations of marine hydrodynamics using multicomponent splitting, thereby solving an optimality system that includes adjoint equations and covariance matrices of observation errors. The hydrodynamic model is described by primitive equations in the sigma-coordinate system, which is solved by finite-difference methods. The technology includes original algorithms for solving the problems of variational data assimilation using modern iterative processes with a special choice of iterative parameters. The methods and technology are illustrated by the example of solving the problem of circulation of the Baltic Sea with 4D variational data assimilation of sea surface temperature information.

Assimilation of Aerosol Observations in the NASA GEOS model

<p>In the GEOS near real-time system, as well as in MERRA-2 which is the latest reanalysis produced at NASA’s Global Modeling Assimilation Office (GMAO), the assimilation of aerosol observations is performed by means of a so-called analysis splitting method. The prognostic model is based on the GEOS model radiatively coupled to GOCART aerosol module and includes assimilation of bias-corrected Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) at 550 nm from various space-based remote sensing platforms.</p><p>Along with the progress made in the JCSDA-Joint Effort for Data Assimilation Integration (JEDI) framework, we have developed a prototype including GEOS aerosols as a component of the JEDI framework. Using members produced by the GEOS hybrid meteorological data assimilation system, we are updating the aerosol component of our assimilation system to a variational ensemble type of scheme. In this talk we will examine the impact of replacing the current analysis splitting scheme with this new approach. By including the assimilation of satellite-based single and multi-channel retrievals; we will discuss the impact of this aerosol data assimilation technique on the 3D aerosol distributions by means of innovation statistics and verification against independent datasets such as the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and surface PM<sub>2.5</sub>.</p>

OpenForecast: The First Open-Source Operational Runoff Forecasting System in Russia

The development and deployment of new operational runoff forecasting systems are a strong focus of the scientific community due to the crucial importance of reliable and timely runoff predictions for early warnings of floods and flashfloods for local businesses and communities. OpenForecast, the first operational runoff forecasting system in Russia, open for public use, is presented in this study. We developed OpenForecast based only on open-source software and data—GR4J hydrological model, ERA-Interim meteorological reanalysis, and ICON deterministic short-range meteorological forecasts. Daily forecasts were generated for two basins in the European part of Russia. Simulation results showed a limited efficiency in reproducing the spring flood of 2019. Although the simulations managed to capture the timing of flood peaks, they failed in estimating flood volume. However, further implementation of the parsimonious data assimilation technique significantly alleviates simulation errors. The revealed limitations of the proposed operational runoff forecasting system provided a foundation to outline its further development and improvement.

Development of a Practical River Water Level Prediction Method Using Data Assimilation Technique

With the aim of accurately predicting river water levels a few hours ahead in the event of a flood, we created a river water level prediction model consisting of a runoff model, a channel model, and data assimilation technique. We also developed a cascade assimilation method that allows us to calculate assimilations of water levels observed at multiple points using particle filters in real-time. As a result of applying the river water level prediction model to Arakawa Basin using the assimilation technique, it was confirmed that reproductive simulations that produce results very similar to the observed results could be achieved, and that we would be able to predict river water levels less affected by the predicted amount of rainfall.