Four New Horsemen of an Apocalypse? Solar Flares, Super-volcanoes, Pandemics, and Artificial Intelligence

If economists have largely failed to predict or prevent the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, and the more disastrous economic collapse associated with the pandemic of 2020, what else is the profession missing? This is the question that motivates this survey. Specifically, we want to highlight four catastrophic risks – i.e., risks that can potentially result in global catastrophes of a much larger magnitude than either of the 2008 or 2020 events. The four risks we examine here are: Space weather and solar flares, super-volcanic eruptions, high-mortality pandemics, and misaligned artificial intelligence. All four have a non-trivial probability of occurring and all four can lead to a catastrophe, possibly not very different from human extinction. Inevitably, and fortunately, these catastrophic events have not yet occurred, so the literature investigating them is by necessity more speculative and less grounded in empirical observations. Nevertheless, that does not make these risks any less real. This survey is motivated by the belief that economists can and should be thinking about these risks more systematically, so that we can devise the appropriate ways to prevent them or ameliorate their potential impacts.

M-Class Solar Flares in Solar Cycles 23 and 24: Properties and Space Weather Relevance

A comprehensive statistical analysis on the properties and accompanied phenomena of all M-class solar flares (as measured in soft X-rays) in the last two solar cycles (1996–2019) is presented here with a focus on their space weather potential. The information about the parent active region and the underlying sunspot (Hale) type is collected for each case, where possible, in order to identify photospheric precondition as precursors for the solar flare eruption or confinement. Associations with coronal mass ejections, solar energetic particles, and interplanetary radio emissions are also evaluated and discussed as possible proxies for flare eruption and subsequent space weather relevance. The results show that the majority (∼80%) of the analyzed M-class flares are of β, β-γ, and β-γ-δ magnetic field configuration. The M-class population of flares is accompanied by CMEs in 41% of the cases and about half of the flare sample has been associated with radio emission from electron beams. A much lower association (≲10%) is obtained with shock wave radio signatures and energetic particles. Furthermore, a parametric scheme is proposed in terms of occurrence rates between M-class flares and a variety of accompanied solar phenomena as a function of flare sub-classes or magnetic type. This study confirms the well-known reduced but inevitable space weather importance of M-class flares.

Response of the Earth’s Lower Ionosphere to Solar Flares and Lightning-Induced Electron Precipitation Events by Analysis of VLF Signals: Similarities and Differences

The lower ionosphere influences the propagation of electromagnetic (EM) waves, satellite and also terrestrial (anthropic) signals at the time of intense perturbations and disturbances. Therefore, data and modelling of the perturbed lower ionosphere are crucial in various technological areas. An analysis of the lower ionospheric response induced by sudden events during daytime-solar flares and during night-time-lightning-induced electron precipitation was carried out. A case study of the solar flare event recorded on 7 September 2017 and lightning-induced electron precipitation event recorded on 16 November 2004 were used in this work. Sudden events induced changes in the ionosphere and, consequently, the electron density height profile. All data are recorded by Belgrade (BEL) radio station system and the model computation is used to obtain the ionospheric parameters induced by these sudden events. According to perturbed conditions, variation of estimated parameters, sharpness and reflection height differ for analysed cases. Data and results are useful for Earth observation, telecommunication and other applications in modern society.

Long-term evolution of magnetic fields in flaring Active Region NOAA 12673

During the lifetime of AR 12673, its magnetic field evolved drastically and produced numerous large flares. In this study, using full maps of the Sun observed by the Solar Dynamics Observatory and the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory, we identified that AR 12673 emerged in decayed AR 12665, which had survived for two solar rotations. Although both ARs emerged at the same location, they possessed different characteristics and different flare productivities. Therefore, it is important to study the long-term magnetic evolution of both ARs to identify the distinguishing characteristics of an AR that can produce large solar flares. We used the Space-weather Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager Active Region Patch data to investigate the evolution of the photospheric magnetic field and other physical properties of the recurring ARs during five Carrington rotations. All these investigated parameters dynamically evolved through a series of solar rotations. We compared the long-term evolution of AR 12665 and AR 12673 to understand the differences in their flare-producing properties. We also studied the relation of the long-term evolution of these ARs with the presence of active longitude. We found that the magnetic flux and complexity of AR 12673 developed much faster than those of AR 12665. Our results confirmed that a strong emerging flux that emerged in the pre-existing AR near the active longitude created a very strong and complex AR that produced large flares.

Low-dimensional Convolutional Neural Network for Solar Flares GOES Time-series Classification

Space weather phenomena such as solar flares have a massive destructive power when they reach a certain magnitude. Here, we explore the deep-learning approach in order to build a solar flare-forecasting model, while examining its limitations and feature-extraction ability based on the available Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) X-ray time-series data. We present a multilayer 1D convolutional neural network to forecast the solar flare event probability occurrence of M- and X-class flares at 1, 3, 6, 12, 24, 48, 72, and 96 hr time frames. The forecasting models were trained and evaluated in two different scenarios: (1) random selection and (2) chronological selection, which were compared afterward in terms of common score metrics. Additionally, we also compared our results to state-of-the-art flare-forecasting models. The results indicates that (1) when X-ray time-series data are used alone, the suggested model achieves higher score results for X-class flares and similar scores for M-class as in previous studies. (2) The two different scenarios obtain opposite results for the X- and M-class flares. (3) The suggested model combined with solely X-ray time-series fails to distinguish between M- and X-class magnitude solar flare events. Furthermore, based on the suggested method, the achieved scores, obtained solely from X-ray time-series measurements, indicate that substantial information regarding the solar activity and physical processes are encapsulated in the data, and augmenting additional data sets, both spatial and temporal, may lead to better predictions, while gaining a comprehensive physical interpretation regarding solar activity. All source codes are available at https://github.com/vladlanda.

On the solar dynamics from radio signal communication by recent solar probes

The very inquisition of the humanity always remains about its parent star of this planetary system. Scientists across the world are always egger to investigate the details of the phenomenon of the solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). There are some fundamental mysteries related to the solar coronal heating along with the acceleration of the solar wind and energetic particles. In this context we have discussed on the solar radio signal data obtained from the Parker Solar Probe (PSP) mission of National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), USA in course of its journey towards the Sun and the very recent data of Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) space probe of European Space Agency (ESA) and NASA. In this work the simultaneous and periodical analysis of the data from the SOHO and PSP will light into the delicate features of the near and far Earth observations on the solar coronal mass ejections related dynamics and that reveals some interesting facts in relation to the solar magnetic field.

OPTICAL SYSTEM DESIGN OF THE DETECTOR FOR SOLAR TERAHERTZ EMISSION MEASUREMENTS

The objectives and scientific tasks of the planned space experiment “Solntse-Terahertz” to be performed onboard the ISS Russian Segment are briefly described in the paper. In particular, the aim of the experiment is to study uninvestigated solar electromagnetic emission in the terahertz domain, in ~ 1012 – 1013 Hz (300-30 µm) frequency range. It is expected to obtain new data on solar active region emission including solar flare emission. These data are necessary to clarify the nature of solar activity and construct physical model of charged particle acceleration in active regions during solar flares and other astrophysical objects. We focus on the telescope optical system design and evaluation of main characteristics of this system. Results of simulations and comparison with the experimental verification of obtained characteristics are presented. A close correlation of the estimations and experimental results was obtained. As a result, main parameters of the telescope optical system of experimental hardware “Solntse-Terahertz” were determined. Key words: Sun, solar flares, terahertz emission, optical system.

Evidence for Energetic Neutral Hydrogen Emission from Solar Particle Events

We report the probable detection of energetic neutral hydrogen atoms (ENAs) at >0.8 MeV in several large solar energetic particle events observed between 1997 and 2004. The low Earth orbiting SAMPEX satellite detected transient increases of quasi-trapped equatorial protons beginning typically ∼3 hr after the X-ray flare and lasting for up to several hours. Since the magnetic cutoff rigidity is >10 GV at the magnetic latitude where the particles were observed, we interpret the signal as due to ENAs that penetrate Earth’s magnetic field and charge exchange in the upper atmosphere, whereupon the charged particles may become trapped. One event outside our survey period (2006 December 5) had previously reported solar flare ENAs, the only example of this phenomenon of which we are aware. Although the statistics are limited, the events we report suggest that the ENAs are produced as the flare-associated coronal mass wjection moves through the corona, as concluded previously for the 2006 December 5 event. The finding of ENAs emitted in conjunction with large solar flares opens a new avenue to understanding these events.