Experimental simulations with an ecosystem model of the Baltic Sea: A nutrient load reduction experiment

Abstract Riverine nutrient loads are among the major causes of eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. This study applied the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in three catchments flowing to the Baltic Sea, namely Vantaanjoki (Finland), Fyrisån (Sweden), and Słupia (Poland), to simulate the effectiveness of nutrient control measures included in the EU’s Water Framework Directive River Basin Management Plans (RBMPs). Moreover, we identified similar, coastal, middle-sized catchments to which conclusions from this study could be applicable. The first modelling scenario based on extrapolation of the existing trends affected the modelled nutrient loads by less than 5%. In the second scenario, measures included in RBMPs showed variable effectiveness, ranging from negligible for Słupia to 28% total P load reduction in Vantaanjoki. Adding spatially targeted measures to RBMPs (third scenario) would considerably improve their effectiveness in all three catchments for both total N and P, suggesting a need to adopt targeting more widely in the Baltic Sea countries.

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An ecosystem model of the environmental transport and fate of carbon-14 in a bay of the Baltic Sea, Sweden

Ecological Modelling ◽

10.1016/s0304-3800(03)00135-2 ◽

2003 ◽

Vol 166 (3) ◽

pp. 193-210 ◽

Cited By ~ 23

Author(s):

Linda Kumblad ◽

Michael Gilek ◽

Björn Næslund ◽

Ulrik Kautsky

Keyword(s):

Baltic Sea ◽

Ecosystem Model ◽

The Baltic Sea ◽

Carbon 14 ◽

Environmental Transport ◽

The Baltic

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Anthropogenic nutrient load of the Baltic Sea

Limnologica ◽

10.1016/s0075-9511(99)80007-3 ◽

1999 ◽

Vol 29 (3) ◽

pp. 233-241 ◽

Cited By ~ 42

Author(s):

Günther Nausch ◽

Dietwart Nehring ◽

Gunni Aertebjerg

Keyword(s):

Baltic Sea ◽

Nutrient Load ◽

The Baltic Sea ◽

The Baltic

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The Use of Satellite Data in the Operational 3D Coupled Ecosystem Model of the Baltic Sea (3D Cembs)

Polish Maritime Research ◽

10.1515/pomr-2016-0003 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 23 (1) ◽

pp. 20-24 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Artur Nowicki ◽

Maciej Janecki ◽

Mirosław Darecki ◽

Piotr Piotrowski ◽

Lidia Dzierzbicka-Głowacka

Keyword(s):

Baltic Sea ◽

Satellite Data ◽

Computational Modelling ◽

Automatic Monitoring ◽

Ecosystem Model ◽

Operational Mode ◽

The Baltic Sea ◽

Automatic Monitoring System ◽

Wide Range ◽

The Baltic

Abstract The objective of this paper is to present an automatic monitoring system for the 3D CEMBS model in the operational version. This predictive, eco hydrodynamic model is used as a tool to control the conditions and bio productivity of the Baltic sea environment and to forecast physical and ecological changes in the studied basin. Satellite-measured data assimilation is used to constrain the model and achieve higher accuracy of its results. 3D CEMBS is a version of the Community Earth System Model, adapted for the Baltic Sea. It consists of coupled ocean and ice models, working in active mode together with the ecosystem module. Atmospheric forecast from the UM model (Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling of the Warsaw University) are used as a forcing fields feed through atmospheric data model. In addition, river inflow of freshwater and nutrient deposition from 71 main rivers is processed by land model. At present, satellite data from AQUA MODIS, processed by the SatBałtyk project Operational System are used for the assimilation of sea surface temperature and chlorophyll a concentration. In the operational mode, 48-hour forecasts are produced at six-hour intervals, providing a wide range of hydrodynamic and biochemical parameters.

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Numerical Simulations of Sea Ice Conditions in the Baltic Sea for 2010–2016 Winters Using the 3D CEMBS Model

Polish Maritime Research ◽

10.2478/pomr-2018-0094 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 25 (3) ◽

pp. 35-43 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Maciej Janecki ◽

Artur Nowicki ◽

Alicja Kańska ◽

Maria Golenko ◽

Lidia Dzierzbicka-Głowacka

Keyword(s):

Sea Ice ◽

Baltic Sea ◽

Ecosystem Model ◽

Ice Thickness ◽

The Baltic Sea ◽

Current State ◽

Ice Concentration ◽

Ice Conditions ◽

The Baltic ◽

Modelling Approach

Abstract Sea ice conditions in the Baltic Sea during six latest winters – 2010/2011 to 2015/2016 are analysed using coupled ice–ocean numerical model 3D CEMBS (3D Coupled Ecosystem Model of the Baltic Sea). Simulation results are compared with observations from monitoring stations, ice charts and satellite data. High correlation between model results and observations has been confirmed both in terms of spatial and temporal approach. The analysed period has a high interannual variability of ice extent, the number of ice days and ice thickness. Increasing number of relatively mild winters in the Northern Europe directly associated with climate change results in reduced ice concentration in the Baltic Sea. In this perspective, the implementation and development of the sea ice modelling approach (in addition to standard monitoring techniques) is critical to assess current state of the Baltic Sea environment and predict possible climate related changes in the ecosystem and their influence for human marine–related activities, such as fishery or transportation.

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