Local effects of climate change over the Alpine region: A study with a high resolution regional climate model with a surrogate climate change scenario

Abstract A mosaic-type parameterization of subgrid-scale topography and land use (SubBATS) is applied for a high-resolution regional climate simulation over the Alpine region with a regional climate model (RegCM3). The model coarse-gridcell size in the control simulation is 15 km while the subgridcell size is 3 km. The parameterization requires disaggregation of atmospheric variables from the coarse grid to the subgrid and aggregation of surface fluxes from the subgrid to the coarse grid. Two 10-yr simulations (1983–92) are intercompared, one without (CONT) and one with (SUB) the subgrid scheme. The authors first validate the CONT simulation, showing that it produces good quality temperature and precipitation statistics, showing in particular a good performance compared to previous runs of this region. The subgrid scheme produces much finer detail of temperature and snow distribution following the topographic disaggregation. It also tends to form and melt snow more accurately in response to the heterogeneous characteristics of topography. In particular, validation against station observations shows that the SUB simulation improves the model simulation of the surface hydrologic cycle, in particular snow and runoff, especially at high-elevation sites. Finally, two experiments explore the model sensitivity to different subgrid disaggregation assumptions, namely, the temperature lapse rate and an empirical elevation-based disaggregation of precipitation.

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High Resolution Sensitivity Studies with the Regional Climate Model CCLM in the Alpine Region

Meteorologische Zeitschrift ◽

10.1127/0941-2948/2008/0308 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 17 (4) ◽

pp. 467-476 ◽

Cited By ~ 44

Author(s):

Martin Suklitsch ◽

Andreas Gobiet ◽

Armin Leuprecht ◽

Christoph Frei

Keyword(s):

High Resolution ◽

Regional Climate Model ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Alpine Region ◽

Sensitivity Studies

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Projected climate change over Kuwait simulated using a WRF high resolution regional climate model

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-1867 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Hussain Alsarraf

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

High Resolution ◽

Regional Climate Model ◽

Arabian Peninsula ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Dynamic Downscaling ◽

Model Simulations ◽

Average Maximum ◽

The Impact

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of climate change on the changes on summer surface temperatures between present (2000-2010) and future (2050-2060) over the Arabian Peninsula and Kuwait. In this study, the influence of climate change in the Arabian Peninsula and especially in Kuwait was investigated by high resolution (36, 12, and 4 km grid spacing) dynamic downscaling from the Community Climate System Model CCSM4 using the WRF Weather Research and Forecasting model. The downscaling results were first validated by comparing National Centers for Environmental Prediction NCEP model outputs with the observational data. The global climate change dynamic downscaling model was run using WRF regional climate model simulations (2000-2010) and future projections (2050-2060). The influence of climate change in the Arabian Peninsula can be projected from the differences between the two period&#8217;s model simulations. The regional model simulations of the average maximum surface temperature in summertime predicted an increase from 1&#9702;C to 3 &#9702;C over the summertime in Kuwait by midcentury.&#160;

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Climate change in China in the 21st century as simulated by a high resolution regional climate model

Chinese Science Bulletin ◽

10.1007/s11434-011-4935-8 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 57 (10) ◽

pp. 1188-1195 ◽

Cited By ~ 109

Author(s):

XueJie Gao ◽

Ying Shi ◽

DongFeng Zhang ◽

Filippo Giorgi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

High Resolution ◽

Regional Climate Model ◽

21St Century ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate

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High-resolution Med-CORDEX regional climate model simulations for hydrological impact studies: a first evaluation in Morocco

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/hessd-10-5687-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 10 (5) ◽

pp. 5687-5737 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Y. Tramblay ◽

D. Ruelland ◽

S. Somot ◽

R. Bouaicha ◽

E. Servat

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

High Resolution ◽

Regional Climate Model ◽

Bias Correction ◽

Hydrological Model ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Impact Studies ◽

Hydrological Impact ◽

Split Sample

Abstract. In the framework of the international CORDEX program, new regional climate model (RCM) simulations at high spatial resolutions are becoming available for the Mediterranean region (Med-CORDEX initiative). This study provides the first evaluation for hydrological impact studies of these high-resolution simulations. Different approaches are compared to analyze the climate change impacts on the hydrology of a catchment located in North Morocco, using a high-resolution RCM (ALADIN-Climate) from the Med-CORDEX initiative at two different spatial resolutions (50 km and 12 km) and for two different Radiative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The main issues addressed in the present study are: (i) what is the impact of increased RCM resolution on present-climate hydrological simulations and on future projections? (ii) Are the bias-correction of the RCM model and the parameters of the hydrological model stationary and transferable to different climatic conditions? (iii) What is the climate and hydrological change signal based on the new Radiative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)? Results indicate that high resolution simulations at 12 km better reproduce the seasonal patterns, the seasonal distributions and the extreme events of precipitation. The parameters of the hydrological model, calibrated to reproduce runoff at the monthly time step over the 1984–2010 period, do not show a strong variability between dry and wet calibration periods in a differential split-sample test. However the bias correction of precipitation by quantile-matching does not give satisfactory results in validation using the same differential split-sample testing method. Therefore a quantile-perturbation method that does not rely on any stationarity assumption and produces ensembles of perturbed series of precipitation was introduced. The climate change signal under scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 indicates a decrease of respectively −30% to −57% in surface runoff for the mid-term (2041–2062), when for the same period the projections for precipitation are ranging between −15% and −19% and for temperature between +1.28°C and +1.87°C.

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