scholarly journals Robust Inverse Modeling of Growing Season Net Ecosystem Exchange in a Mountainous Peatland: Influence of Distributional Assumptions on Estimated Parameters and Total Carbon Fluxes

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 1319-1336 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tobias K. D. Weber ◽  
Lars Gerling ◽  
Daniela Reineke ◽  
Stephan Weber ◽  
Wolfgang Durner ◽  
...  
2008 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 561-583 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Vetter ◽  
G. Churkina ◽  
M. Jung ◽  
M. Reichstein ◽  
S. Zaehle ◽  
...  

Abstract. Globally, the year 2003 is associated with one of the largest atmospheric CO2 rises on record. In the same year, Europe experienced an anomalously strong flux of CO2 from the land to the atmosphere associated with an exceptionally dry and hot summer in Western and Central Europe. In this study we analyze the magnitude of this carbon flux anomaly and key driving ecosystem processes using simulations of seven terrestrial ecosystem models of different complexity and types (process-oriented and diagnostic). We address the following questions: (1) how large were deviations in the net European carbon flux in 2003 relative to a short-term baseline (1998–2002) and to longer-term variations in annual fluxes (1980 to 2005), (2) which European regions exhibited the largest changes in carbon fluxes during the growing season 2003, and (3) which ecosystem processes controlled the carbon balance anomaly . In most models the prominence of 2003 anomaly in carbon fluxes declined with lengthening of the reference period from one year to 16 years. The 2003 anomaly for annual net carbon fluxes ranged between 0.35 and –0.63 Pg C for a reference period of one year and between 0.17 and –0.37 Pg C for a reference period of 16 years for the whole Europe. In Western and Central Europe, the anomaly in simulated net ecosystem productivity (NEP) over the growing season in 2003 was outside the 1σ variance bound of the carbon flux anomalies for 1980–2005 in all models. The estimated anomaly in net carbon flux ranged between –42 and –158 Tg C for Western Europe and between 24 and –129 Tg C for Central Europe depending on the model used. All models responded to a dipole pattern of the climate anomaly in 2003. In Western and Central Europe NEP was reduced due to heat and drought. In contrast, lower than normal temperatures and higher air humidity decreased NEP over Northeastern Europe. While models agree on the sign of changes in simulated NEP and gross primary productivity in 2003 over Western and Central Europe, models diverge in the estimates of anomalies in ecosystem respiration. Except for two process models which simulate respiration increase, most models simulated a decrease in ecosystem respiration in 2003. The diagnostic models showed a weaker decrease in ecosystem respiration than the process-oriented models. Based on the multi-model simulations we estimated the total carbon flux anomaly over the 2003 growing season in Europe to range between –0.02 and –0.27 Pg C relative to the net carbon flux in 1998–2002.


Author(s):  
Leila Taghizadeh ◽  
Ahmad Karimi ◽  
Clemens Heitzinger

AbstractThe main goal of this paper is to develop the forward and inverse modeling of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic using novel computational methodologies in order to accurately estimate and predict the pandemic. This leads to governmental decisions support in implementing effective protective measures and prevention of new outbreaks. To this end, we use the logistic equation and the SIR system of ordinary differential equations to model the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. For the inverse modeling, we propose Bayesian inversion techniques, which are robust and reliable approaches, in order to estimate the unknown parameters of the epidemiological models. We use an adaptive Markov-chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for the estimation of a posteriori probability distribution and confidence intervals for the unknown model parameters as well as for the reproduction number. Furthermore, we present a fatality analysis for COVID-19 in Austria, which is also of importance for governmental protective decision making. We perform our analyses on the publicly available data for Austria to estimate the main epidemiological model parameters and to study the effectiveness of the protective measures by the Austrian government. The estimated parameters and the analysis of fatalities provide useful information for decision makers and makes it possible to perform more realistic forecasts of future outbreaks.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karen Hei-Laan Yeung ◽  
Carole Helfter ◽  
Neil Mullinger ◽  
Mhairi Coyle ◽  
Eiko Nemitz

<p>Peatlands North of 45˚ represent one of the largest terrestrial carbon (C) stores. They play an important role in the global C-cycle, and their ability to sequester carbon is controlled by multiple, often competing, factors including precipitation, temperature and phenology. Land-atmosphere exchange of carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) is dynamic, and exhibits marked seasonal and inter-annual variations which can effect the overall carbon sink strength in both the short- and long-term.</p><p>Due to increased incidences of climate anomalies in recent years, long-term datasets are essential to disambiguate natural variability in Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) from shorter-term fluctuations. This is particularly important at high latitudes (>45˚N) where the majority of global peatlands are found. With increasing pressure from stressors such as climate and land-use change, it has been predicted that with a ca. 3<sup>o</sup>C global temperature rise by 2100, UK peatlands could become a net source of C.</p><p>NEE of CO<sub>2</sub> has been measured using the eddy-covariance (EC) method at Auchencorth Moss (55°47’32 N, 3°14’35 W, 267 m a.s.l.), a temperate, lowland, ombrotrophic peatland in central Scotland, continuously since 2002. Alongside EC data, we present a range of meteorological parameters measured at site including soil temperature, total solar and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), rainfall, and, since April 2007, half-hourly water table depth readings. The length of record and range of measurements make this dataset an important resource as one of the longest term records of CO<sub>2</sub> fluxes from a temperate peatland.</p><p>Although seasonal cycles of gross primary productivity (GPP) were highly variable between years, the site was a consistent CO<sub>2</sub> sink for the period 2002-2012. However, net annual losses of CO<sub>2</sub> have been recorded on several occasions since 2013. Whilst NEE tends to be positively correlated with the length of growing season, anomalies in winter weather also explain some of the variability in CO<sub>2</sub> sink strength the following summer.</p><p>Additionally, water table depth (WTD) plays a crucial role, affecting both GPP and ecosystem respiration (R<sub>eco</sub>). Relatively dry summers in recent years have contributed to shifting the balance between R<sub>eco</sub> and GPP: prolonged periods of low WTD were typically accompanied by an increase in R<sub>eco</sub>, and a decrease in GPP, hence weakening the overall CO<sub>2</sub> sink strength. Extreme events such as drought periods and cold winter temperatures can have significant and complex effects on NEE, particularly when such meteorological anomalies co-occur. For example, a positive annual NEE occurred in 2003 when Europe experienced heatwave and summer drought. More recently, an unusually long spell of snow lasting until the end of March delayed the onset of the 2018 growing season by up to 1.5 months compared to previous years. This was followed by a prolonged dry spell in summer 2018, which weakened GPP, increased R<sub>eco</sub> and led to a net annual loss of 47.4 ton CO<sub>2</sub>-C km<sup>-2</sup>. It is clear that the role of Northern peatlands within the carbon cycle is being modified, driven by changes in climate at both local and global scales.</p>


2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Eckhardt ◽  
Christian Knoblauch ◽  
Lars Kutzbach ◽  
Gillian Simpson ◽  
Evgeny Abakumov ◽  
...  

Abstract. Arctic tundra ecosystems are currently facing rates of amplified climate change. This is critical as these ecosystems store significant amounts of carbon in their soils, which can be mineralized to CO2 and CH4 and released to the atmosphere. To understand how the CO2 net ecosystem exchange (NEE) fluxes will react to changing climatic conditions, it is necessary to understand the individual responses of the physiological processes contributing to CO2 NEE. Therefore, this study aimed: (i) to partition NEE fluxes at the soil-plant-atmosphere interface in an arctic tundra ecosystem; and (ii) to identify the main environmental drivers of these fluxes. Hereby, the NEE fluxes were partitioned into gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco) and further into autotrophic (RA) and heterotrophic respiration (RH). The study examined flux data collected during the growing season in 2015 using closed chamber measurements in a polygonal tundra landscape in the Lena River Delta, northeastern Siberia. The measured fluxes on the microscale (1 m–10 m) were used to model the NEE, GPP, Reco, RH, RA and net ecosystem production (NPP) over the growing season. Here, for the first time, the differing response of in situ measured RA and RH fluxes from permafrost-affected soils to hydrological conditions have been examined. It was shown that low RA fluxes are associated to a high water table, most likely due to the submersion of mosses, while an effect of water table fluctuations on RH fluxes was not observed. Furthermore, this work found the polygonal tundra in the Lena River Delta to be a sink for atmospheric CO2 during the growing season. Spatial heterogeneity was apparent with the net CO2 uptake at a wet, depressed polygon center being more than twice as high as that measured at a drier polygon rim. In addition to higher GPP fluxes, the differences in NEE between the two microsites were caused by lower Reco fluxes at the center compared to the rim. Here, the contrasting hydrological conditions caused the CO2 flux differences between the microsites, where high water levels lad to lower decomposition rates due to anoxic conditions.


2004 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-146 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. J. Dolman ◽  
T. C. Maximov ◽  
E. J. Moors ◽  
A. P. Maximov ◽  
J. A. Elbers ◽  
...  

Abstract. Observations of the net ecosystem exchange of water and CO2 were made during two seasons in 2000 and 2001 above a Larch forest in Far East Siberia (Yakutsk). The measurements were obtained by eddy correlation. There is a very sharply pronounced growing season of 100 days when the forest is leaved. Maximum half hourly uptake rates are 18 µmol m-2 s-1; maximum respiration rates are 5 µmol m-2 s-1. Net annual sequestration of carbon was estimated at 160 gCm-2 in 2001. Applying no correction for low friction velocities added 60 g C m-2. The net carbon exchange of the forest was extremely sensitive to small changes in weather that may switch the forest easily from a sink to a source, even in summer. June was the month with highest uptake in 2001. The average evaporation rate of the forest approached 1.46 mm day-1 during the growing season, with peak values of 3 mm day-1 with an estimated annual evaporation of 213 mm, closely approaching the average annual rainfall amount. 2001 was a drier year than 2000 and this is reflected in lower evaporation rates in 2001 than in 2000. The surface conductance of the forest shows a marked response to increasing atmospheric humidity deficits. This affects the CO2 uptake and evaporation in a different manner, with the CO2 uptake being more affected. There appears to be no change in the relation between surface conductance and net ecosystem uptake normalized by the atmospheric humidity deficit at the monthly time scale. The response to atmospheric humidity deficit is an efficient mechanism to prevent severe water loss during the short intense growing season. The associated cost to the sequestration of carbon may be another explanation for the slow growth of these forests in this environment.


2005 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 1777-1787 ◽  
Author(s):  
Galina Churkina ◽  
David Schimel ◽  
Bobby H. Braswell ◽  
Xiangming Xiao

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lutz Beckebanze ◽  
Josefine Walz ◽  
Benjamin R.K. Runkle ◽  
David Holl ◽  
Irina V. Fedorova Fedorova ◽  
...  

<p>Permafrost-affected soils contain a large quantity of soil organic carbon (SOC). Two processes control the amount of carbon stored in soils. The photosynthetic activity of plants produces biomass that may accumulate in the soil, while microorganism’s respiration leads to a depletion of the soil carbon stocks through decomposition. The carbon balance defines whether a soil acts as a source or sink of carbon. In recent decades, many researchers observed and analyzed the carbon balance of permafrost soils. In most cases, the focus lays on observations of the vertical carbon flux (CO<sub>2</sub> and CH<sub>4</sub>) to estimate the carbon balance. However, there is lack of information regarding the lateral losses of carbon via dissolved organic carbon (DOC) or dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in ground- or rainwater.</p><p>In this study, we estimate the lateral carbon fluxes from a permafrost-affected site in north-eastern Siberia, Russia. Long-term measurements of vertical carbon fluxes have been conducted at this study site. By considering both, the vertical and the lateral carbon fluxes, we estimate the complete carbon balance for one growing season in 2014 and discuss the contribution of the lateral carbon flux to the overall carbon balance.</p><p>The results show that the vertical CO<sub>2</sub> fluxes dominate the carbon balance during the growing season from June 8<sup>th</sup> – September 8<sup>th</sup> (-19 ± 1.2 kg-C m<sup>-2</sup>). The lateral fluxes of DOC and DIC reached values of +0.1 ± 0.01 and +1.4 ± 0.09 kg-C m<sup>-2</sup>, respectively, whereas the vertical fluxes of CH<sub>4</sub> had values of +0.7 ± 0.02 kg-C m<sup>-2 </sup>integrated over this time. By considering the lateral carbon export, the net ecosystem carbon balance of the study area was reduced by 8%. On shorter time scales of days, the relationship between lateral and vertical flux changes within the growing season. Early in the growing season, the lateral carbon flux outpaces the weak vertical CO<sub>2</sub> uptake for a few days and converts the estimated carbon balance from a sink to a source.</p><p>We conclude that lateral carbon fluxes have a larger influence on the carbon balance of our study site on time scales of days (early and late growing season) and that this influence decreases with annual time scales. Therefore, the vertical carbon flux can be seen as a good approximation for the carbon balance of this study site on annual time scales.</p>


2008 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
pp. 1797-1808 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. L. Kutsch ◽  
N. Hanan ◽  
B. Scholes ◽  
I. McHugh ◽  
W. Kubheka ◽  
...  

Abstract. The principal mechanisms that connect carbon fluxes with water relations in savanna ecosystems were studied by using eddy covariance method in a savanna ecosystem at Kruger National Park, South Africa. Since the annual drought and rewetting cycle is a major factor influencing the function of savanna ecosystems, this work focused on the close inter-connection between water relations and carbon fluxes. Data from a nine-month measuring campaign lasting from the early wet season to the late dry season were used. Total ecosystem respiration showed highest values at the onset of the growing season, a slightly lower plateau during the main part of the growing season and a continuous decrease during the transition towards the dry season. The regulation of canopy conductance was changed in two ways: changes due to phenology during the course of the growing season and short-term acclimation to soil water conditions. The most constant parameter was water use efficiency that was influenced by VPD during the day but the VPD response curve of water usage did change only slightly during the course of the growing season and decreased by about 30% during the transition from wet to dry season. The regulation of canopy conductance and photosynthetic capacity were closely related. This observation meets recent leaf-level findings that stomatal closure triggers down-regulation of Rubisco during drought. Our results may show the effects of these processes on the ecosystem scale.


2013 ◽  
Vol 23 (8) ◽  
pp. 1798-1816 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masahito Ueyama ◽  
Hiroki Iwata ◽  
Yoshinobu Harazono ◽  
Eugénie S. Euskirchen ◽  
Walter C. Oechel ◽  
...  

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