scholarly journals Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Severe Wintertime Particulate Pollution Events in Beijing Using Extreme Value Theory

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 1824-1830 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. C. Pendergrass ◽  
L. Shen ◽  
D. J. Jacob ◽  
L. J. Mickley
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Value Theory ◽  
Value Theory ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Particulate Pollution ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pollution Events

Structural safety and design under climate change

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pietro Croce ◽  
Paolo Formichi ◽  
Filippo Landi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Structural Safety ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

<p>The impact of climate change on climatic actions could significantly affect, in the mid-term future, the design of new structures as well as the reliability of existing ones designed in accordance to the provisions of present and past codes. Indeed, current climatic loads are defined under the assumption of stationary climate conditions but climate is not stationary and the current accelerated rate of changes imposes to consider its effects.</p><p>Increase of greenhouse gas emissions generally induces a global increase of the average temperature, but at local scale, the consequences of this phenomenon could be much more complex and even apparently not coherent with the global trend of main climatic parameters, like for example, temperature, rainfalls, snowfalls and wind velocity.</p><p>In the paper, a general methodology is presented, aiming to evaluate the impact of climate change on structural design, as the result of variations of characteristic values of the most relevant climatic actions over time. The proposed procedure is based on the analysis of an ensemble of climate projections provided according a medium and a high greenhouse gas emission scenario. Factor of change for extreme value distribution’s parameters and return values are thus estimated in subsequent time windows providing guidance for adaptation of the current definition of structural loads.</p><p>The methodology is illustrated together with the outcomes obtained for snow, wind and thermal actions in Italy. Finally, starting from the estimated changes in extreme value parameters, the influence on the long-term structural reliability can be investigated comparing the resulting time dependent reliability with the reference reliability levels adopted in modern Structural codes.</p>

scholarly journals Risk Analysis of Gold Prices in Pakistan Using Extreme Value Theory

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Ghulam Raza Khan ◽  
Alanazi Talal Abdulrahman ◽  
Osama Alamri ◽  
Zahid Iqbal ◽  
Maqsood Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Value Theory ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Risk Measures ◽  
Value Theory ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Return Level ◽  
Extreme Stress ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Peak Over Threshold ◽  
The Impact

Extreme value theory (EVT) is useful for modeling the impact of crashes or situations of extreme stress on investor portfolios. EVT is mostly utilized in financial modeling, risk management, insurance, and hydrology. The price of gold fluctuates considerably over time, and this introduces a risk on its own. The goal of this study is to analyze the risk of gold investment by applying the EVT to historical daily data for extreme daily losses and gains in the price of gold. We used daily gold prices in the Pakistan Bullion Market from August 1, 2011 to July 30, 2021. This paper covers two methods such as Block Maxima (BM) and Peak Over Threshold (POT) modeling. The risk measures which are adopted in this paper are Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES). The point and interval estimates of VaR and ES are obtained by fitting the Generalized Pareto (GPA) distribution. Moreover, in this paper, return-level forecasting is also included for the next 5 and 10 years by analyzing the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution.

scholarly journals Assessing the Impact of Climate Change and Extreme Value Uncertainty to Extreme Flows across Great Britain

Water ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lila Collet ◽  
Lindsay Beevers ◽  
Christel Prudhomme
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Great Britain ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Flows ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Application of Extreme Value Theory in Predicting Climate Change Induced Extreme Rainfall in Kenya

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 85
Author(s):  
Faithful C. Onwuegbuche ◽  
Alpha B. Kenyatta ◽  
Steeven B. Affognon ◽  
Exavery P. Enock ◽  
Mary O. Akinade
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Value Theory ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Value Theory ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Generalized Extreme Value Distribution ◽  
Return Level ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Optimal Model ◽  
Return Levels

Climate change has brought about unprecedented new weather patterns, one of which is changes in extreme rainfall. In Kenya, heavy rains and severe flash floods have left people dead and displaced hundreds from their settlements. In order to build a resilient society and achieve sustainable development, it is paramount that adequate inference about extreme rainfall be made. To this end, this research modelled and predicted extreme rainfall events in Kenya using Extreme Value Theory for rainfall data from 1901-2016. Maximum Likelihood Estimation was used to estimate the model parameters and block maxima approach was used to fit the Generalized Extreme Value Distribution (GEVD) while the Peak Over Threshold method was used to fit the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The Gumbel distribution was found to be the optimal model from the GEVD while the Exponential distribution gave the optimal model over the threshold value. Furthermore, prediction for the return periods of 10, 20, 50 and 100 years were made using the return level estimates and their corresponding confidence intervals were presented. It was found that increase in return periods leads to a corresponding increase in return levels. However, the GPD gave higher return levels for 10 and 20 years compared to GEVD. While, for higher return periods 50 and 100 years, the GEVD gave higher return levels compared to the GPD. Model diagnostics using probability, density, quantile and return level plots indicated that the models provided were a good fit for the data.

Extreme Value Theory and Archimedean Copulas

2004 ◽  
Vol 2004 (3) ◽  
pp. 211-228 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mario V. Wüthrich
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Value Theory ◽  
Value Theory ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Archimedean Copulas

HOW CLIMATE CHANGE CAN INFLUENCE THE AGRICULTURE IN UKRAINE: A REVIEW

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Maidanovych ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Soil Surface ◽  
Winter Period ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Resource Saving ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Average Annual Temperature ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this work is to review and analyze the main results of modern research on the impact of climate change on the agro-sphere of Ukraine. Results. Analysis of research has shown that the effects of climate change on the agro-sphere are already being felt today and will continue in the future. The observed climate changes in recent decades have already significantly affected the shift in the northern direction of all agro-climatic zones of Europe, including Ukraine. From the point of view of productivity of the agro-sphere of Ukraine, climate change will have both positive and negative consequences. The positives include: improving the conditions of formation and reducing the harvesting time of crop yields; the possibility of effective introduction of late varieties (hybrids), which require more thermal resources; improving the conditions for overwintering crops; increase the efficiency of fertilizer application. Model estimates of the impact of climate change on wheat yields in Ukraine mainly indicate the positive effects of global warming on yields in the medium term, but with an increase in the average annual temperature by 2 ° C above normal, grain yields are expected to decrease. The negative consequences of the impact of climate change on the agrosphere include: increased drought during the growing season; acceleration of humus decomposition in soils; deterioration of soil moisture in the southern regions; deterioration of grain quality and failure to ensure full vernalization of grain; increase in the number of pests, the spread of pathogens of plants and weeds due to favorable conditions for their overwintering; increase in wind and water erosion of the soil caused by an increase in droughts and extreme rainfall; increasing risks of freezing of winter crops due to lack of stable snow cover. Conclusions. Resource-saving agricultural technologies are of particular importance in the context of climate change. They include technologies such as no-till, strip-till, ridge-till, which make it possible to partially store and accumulate mulch on the soil surface, reduce the speed of the surface layer of air and contribute to better preservation of moisture accumulated during the autumn-winter period. And in determining the most effective ways and mechanisms to reduce weather risks for Ukrainian farmers, it is necessary to take into account the world practice of climate-smart technologies.

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