Structural safety and design under climate change

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pietro Croce ◽  
Paolo Formichi ◽  
Filippo Landi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Structural Safety ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

<p>The impact of climate change on climatic actions could significantly affect, in the mid-term future, the design of new structures as well as the reliability of existing ones designed in accordance to the provisions of present and past codes. Indeed, current climatic loads are defined under the assumption of stationary climate conditions but climate is not stationary and the current accelerated rate of changes imposes to consider its effects.</p><p>Increase of greenhouse gas emissions generally induces a global increase of the average temperature, but at local scale, the consequences of this phenomenon could be much more complex and even apparently not coherent with the global trend of main climatic parameters, like for example, temperature, rainfalls, snowfalls and wind velocity.</p><p>In the paper, a general methodology is presented, aiming to evaluate the impact of climate change on structural design, as the result of variations of characteristic values of the most relevant climatic actions over time. The proposed procedure is based on the analysis of an ensemble of climate projections provided according a medium and a high greenhouse gas emission scenario. Factor of change for extreme value distribution’s parameters and return values are thus estimated in subsequent time windows providing guidance for adaptation of the current definition of structural loads.</p><p>The methodology is illustrated together with the outcomes obtained for snow, wind and thermal actions in Italy. Finally, starting from the estimated changes in extreme value parameters, the influence on the long-term structural reliability can be investigated comparing the resulting time dependent reliability with the reference reliability levels adopted in modern Structural codes.</p>

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Chinese White Pine Beetle Dendroctonus armandi in China

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 544
Author(s):  
Hang Ning ◽  
Ming Tang ◽  
Hui Chen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Central China ◽  
Qinling Mountains ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Precipitation Seasonality ◽  
Suitable Area ◽  
The Impact

Dendroctonus armandi (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytidae) is a bark beetle native to China and is the most destructive forest pest in the Pinus armandii woodlands of central China. Due to ongoing climate warming, D. armandi outbreaks have become more frequent and severe. Here, we used Maxent to model its current and future potential distribution in China. Minimum temperature of the coldest month and precipitation seasonality are the two major factors constraining the current distribution of D. armandi. Currently, the suitable area of D. armandi falls within the Qinling Mountains and Daba Mountains. The total suitable area is 15.83 × 104 km2. Under future climate scenarios, the total suitable area is projected to increase slightly, while remaining within the Qinling Mountains and Daba Mountains. Among the climate scenarios, the distribution expanded the most under the maximum greenhouse gas emission scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5). Under all assumptions, the highly suitable area is expected to increase over time; the increase will occur in southern Shaanxi, northwest Hubei, and northeast Sichuan Provinces. By the 2050s, the highly suitable area is projected to increase by 0.82 × 104 km2. By the 2050s, the suitable climatic niche for D. armandi will increase along the Qinling Mountains and Daba Mountains, posing a major challenge for forest managers. Our findings provide information that can be used to monitor D. armandi populations, host health, and the impact of climate change, shedding light on the effectiveness of management responses.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on sediment yield in the Mekong River basin: a case study of the Nam Ou basin, Lao PDR

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Shrestha ◽  
M. S. Babel ◽  
S. Maskey ◽  
A. van Griensven ◽  
S. Uhlenbrook ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sediment Yield ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Sediment Flux ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This paper evaluates the impact of climate change on sediment yield in the Nam Ou basin located in northern Laos. Future climate (temperature and precipitation) from four general circulation models (GCMs) that are found to perform well in the Mekong region and a regional circulation model (PRECIS) are downscaled using a delta change approach. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to assess future changes in sediment flux attributable to climate change. Results indicate up to 3.0 °C shift in seasonal temperature and 27% (decrease) to 41% (increase) in seasonal precipitation. The largest increase in temperature is observed in the dry season while the largest change in precipitation is observed in the wet season. In general, temperature shows increasing trends but changes in precipitation are not unidirectional and vary depending on the greenhouse gas emission scenarios (GHGES), climate models, prediction period and season. The simulation results show that the changes in annual stream discharges are likely to range from a 17% decrease to 66% increase in the future, which will lead to predicted changes in annual sediment yield ranging from a 27% decrease to about 160% increase. Changes in intra-annual (monthly) discharge as well as sediment yield are even greater (−62 to 105% in discharge and −88 to 243% in sediment yield). A higher discharge and sediment flux are expected during the wet seasons, although the highest relative changes are observed during the dry months. The results indicate high uncertainties in the direction and magnitude of changes of discharge as well as sediment yields due to climate change. As the projected climate change impact on sediment varies remarkably between the different climate models, the uncertainty should be taken into account in both sediment management and climate change adaptation.

scholarly journals Perceptions of Food Retailers Regarding Climate Change and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 26-35
Author(s):  
Ayanda Pamella Deliwe ◽  
Shelley Beryl Beck ◽  
Elroy Eugene Smith
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Harmful Effect ◽  
Retail Sector ◽  
Food Retail ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Food Retailers ◽  
The Impact

Objective – This paper sets out to assess perceptions of food retailers regarding climate change, greenhouse gas emission and sustainability in the Nelson Mandela Bay region of South Africa. The primary objective of this study is to investigate the food retailers’ greenhouse gas emissions strategies. Climate change catastrophic potential and the harmful effect that it has had on the community and businesses has led to it being given attention from social media and in literature. Methodology/Technique – This paper covered a literature review that provided the theoretical framework. The empirical study that was carried out included self-administered questionnaires which were distributed to 120 food retailers who were selected from the population using convenience sampling. Findings - The results revealed that most of the respondents were neutral towards the impact of operational factors regarding GHG emission in the food retail sector. Novelty - There is limited research that has been conducted among food retailers from the designated population. The study provided guidelines that will be of assistance to food retailers when dealing with climate change and greenhouse gas emissions impact in the food retail sector. Type of Paper: Empirical. JEL Classification: L66, Q54, Q59. Keywords: Climate Change; Food Retailers; Greenhouse Gas Emissions; Perceptions; Strategies; Sustainability Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Deliwe, A.P; Beck, S.B; Smith, E.E. (2021). Perceptions of Food Retailers Regarding Climate Change and Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Journal of Business and Economics Review, 5(4) 26–35. https://doi.org/10.35609/jber.2021.5.4(3)

Climate Conditions and Biodiversity Decline

2022 ◽  
pp. 748-763
Author(s):  
Ashok K. Rathoure ◽  
Unnati Rajendrakumar Patel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Change ◽  
Biological Diversity ◽  
Convention On Biological Diversity ◽  
Natural Ecosystems ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Fragile Environment ◽  
Impact On Biodiversity ◽  
The Impact

Many studies in recent years have investigated the effects of climate change on the future of biodiversity. In this chapter, the authors first examined the different possible effects of climate change that can operate at individual, population, species, community, ecosystem, notably showing that species can respond to climate challenges by shifting their climatic change. Climate change is one of the most important global environmental challenges that affect all the natural ecosystems of the world. Due to the fragile environment, mountain ecosystems are the most vulnerable to the impact of climate change. Climatic change will affect vegetation, humans, animals, and ecosystem that will impact on biodiversity. Mountains have been recognized as important ecosystems by the Convention on Biological Diversity. Climate change will not only threaten the biodiversity, but also affect the socio-economic condition of the indigenous people of the state. Various activities like habitat loss, deforestation, and exploitation amplify the impact of climate change on biodiversity.

PESTICIDE AND GREENHOUSE GAS EXTERNALITIES FROM US AGRICULTURE — THE IMPACT OF THEIR INTERNALIZATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE

2013 ◽  
Vol 04 (03) ◽  
pp. 1350008 ◽  
Author(s):  
NIKOLINKA SHAKHRAMANYAN ◽  
UWE A. SCHNEIDER ◽  
BRUCE A. McCARL
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Production Costs ◽  
Net Income ◽  
Gas Emission ◽  
Emission Mitigation ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact

Climate change may affect the use of pesticides and their associated environmental and human health impacts. This study employs and modifies a partial equilibrium model of the US agricultural sector to examine the effects of alternative regulations of the pesticide and greenhouse gas emission externality. Simulation results indicate that without pesticide externality regulations and low greenhouse gas emission mitigation strategy, climate change benefits from increased agricultural production in the US are more than offset by increased environmental costs. Although the combined regulation of pesticide and greenhouse gas emission externalities increases farmers' production costs, their net income effects are positive because of price adjustments and associated welfare shifts from consumers to producers. The results also show heterogeneous impacts on preferred pest management intensities across major crops. While pesticide externality regulations lead to substantial increases in total water use, climate policies induce the opposite effect.

scholarly journals Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Akebia quinata

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun-Ming Zhang ◽  
Min-Li Song ◽  
Zhen-Jian Li ◽  
Xiang-Yong Peng ◽  
Shang Su ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Distribution Pattern ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Climate Factors ◽  
Gas Emission ◽  
Tropical Zone ◽  
Geometric Center ◽  
The Impact

Akebia quinata, also known as chocolate vine, is a creeping woody vine which is used as Chinese herbal medicine, and found widely distributed in East Asia. At present, its wild resources are being constantly destroyed. This study aims to provide a theoretical basis for the resource protection of this plant species by analyzing the possible changes in its geographic distribution pattern and its response to climate factors. It is the first time maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt) and ArcGIS software have been used to predict the distribution of A. quinata in the past, the present, and the future (four greenhouse gas emission scenarios, namely, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). Through the prediction results, the impact of climate change on the distribution of A. quinata and the response of A. quinata to climate factors were analyzed. The results showed that the most significant climatic factor affecting the distribution pattern of A. quinata was the annual precipitation. At present, the suitable distribution regions of A. quinata are mainly in the temperate zone, and a few suitable distribution regions are in the tropical zone. The medium and high suitable regions are mainly located in East Asia, accounting for 51.1 and 81.7% of the worldwide medium and high suitable regions, respectively. The migration of the geometric center of the distribution regions of A. quinata in East Asia is mainly affected by the change of distribution regions in China, and the average migration rate of the geometric center in each climate scenario is positively correlated with the level of greenhouse gas emission scenario.

Impact of climate change on pests of rice and cassava.

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (050) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
M Chaya ◽  
◽  
Xiang Tao ◽  
A Green ◽  
Gu BaoGen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Magnaporthe Grisea ◽  
Brown Planthopper ◽  
Blast Disease ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Pests And Diseases ◽  
Staple Crop ◽  
The Impact

Climate change is exacerbating food insecurity, and its negative impacts will worsen over time. This is happening via several pathways, among which plant pests are a leading cause. To contribute to more evidence-based decisions and policies, a team from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) carried out a comprehensive literature review on rice (Oryza sativa) and cassava (Manihot esculenta), the major pests and diseases affecting them, and the impact of climate change on the latter. Rice is the major staple crop for about half the world's population. Most studies conclude that pest pressure will increase on rice under future climate change. There are a lot of pests of rice, among which brown planthopper (Nilaparvata lugens) is the most important pest. Leaf blast disease caused by fungus Magnaporthe grisea is the most significant disease, with losses of up to USD 66 billion dollars per year that are equivalent to the amount needed to feed 60 million people. Cassava is the major staple crop and crucial for food security in many countries of the world. A study has shown that cassava production will vary from -3.5% to +17.5% within Africa under 2030 climate projections. Unfortunately, as other crops, cassava will be vulnerable to pests and diseases. Over a third of attainable cassava yield is lost every year to pests and disease alone.

THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE IN WEST AFRICA: A BIO-ECONOMIC MODELING APPROACH

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (04) ◽  
pp. 1950015
Author(s):  
BORIS O. K. LOKONON ◽  
AKLESSO Y. G. EGBENDEWE ◽  
NAGA COULIBALY ◽  
CALVIN ATEWAMBA
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Economic Modeling ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the impact of climate change on agriculture in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). To that end, a bio-economic model is built and calibrated on 2004 base year dataset and the potential impact is evaluated on land use and crop production under two representative concentration pathways coupled with three socio-economic scenarios. The findings suggest that land use change may depend on crop types and prevailing future conditions. As of crop production, the results show that paddy rice, oilseeds, sugarcane, cocoa, coffee, and sesame production could experience a decline under both moderate and harsh climate conditions in most cases. Also, doubling crop yields by 2050 could overall mitigate the negative impact of moderate climate change. The magnitude and the direction of the impacts may vary in space and time.

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