scholarly journals Weakening mechanisms in a basalt‐hosted subduction megathrust fault segment, southern Alaska

Author(s):  
Zoe Braden ◽  
W. M. Behr
Keyword(s):  
2017 ◽  
Vol 50 (3) ◽  
pp. 1389
Author(s):  
P.M. Paradisopoulou ◽  
E.E. Papadimitriou ◽  
J. Mirek

Stress triggering must be incorporated into quantitative earthquake probability estimate, given that faults are interacted though their stress field. Using time dependent probability estimates this work aims at the evaluation of the occurrence probability of anticipated earthquakes near the city of Thessaloniki, an urban center of 1 million people located in northern Greece, conditional to the time elapsed since the last stronger event on each fault segment of the study area. A method that calculates the macroseismic epicenter and magnitude according to macroseismic intensities is used to improve the existing earthquake catalog (from AD 1600 - 2013 with M≥6.0) in order to compute new interevent and elapsed time values which form the basis for time-dependent probability estimates. To investigate the effects of stress transfer to seismic hazard, the probabilistic calculations presented here employ detailed models of coseismic stress associated with the 20 June 1978 M=6.5 Thessaloniki which is the latest destructive earthquake in the area in the instrumental era. The combined 2015-2045 regional Poisson probability of M≥6.0 earthquakes is ~35% the regional time-dependent probability varies from 0% to 15% and incorporation of stress transfer from 0% to 20% for each fault segment.


Geomorphology ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 250 ◽  
pp. 159-172 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shabir Ahmad ◽  
Akhtar Alam ◽  
Bashir Ahmad ◽  
M.I. Bhat ◽  
M. Sultan Bhat

Geology ◽  
2004 ◽  
Vol 32 (9) ◽  
pp. 813 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Micklethwaite ◽  
Stephen F. Cox
Keyword(s):  

2016 ◽  
Vol 439 (1) ◽  
pp. 79-107 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. S. Whipp ◽  
C. A.-L. Jackson ◽  
R. W. Schlische ◽  
M. O. Withjack ◽  
R. L. Gawthorpe

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eyup Sopaci ◽  
Atilla Arda Özacar

<p>The clock of an earthquake can be advanced due to dynamic and static changes when a triggering signal is applied to a stress-loading fault. While static effects decrease rapidly with distance, dynamic effects can reach thousands of kilometers away. Therefore, earthquake triggering is traditionally associated to static stress changes at local distances and to dynamic effects at greater scales. However, static and dynamic effects near the triggering signal are often nested, thus identifying which effect dominates, becomes unclear. So far, earthquake triggering has been tested using different rate-and-state friction (RSF) laws utilizing alternative views of friction without much comparison. In this study, the analogy of an earthquake is simulated using single degree of freedom spring-block systems governed with three different RSF laws, namely “Dieterich”, “Ruina” and “Perrin”. First, the fault systems are evolved until they reach a stable limit cycle and then static, dynamic and their combination are applied as triggering signals. During synthetic simulations, effects of the triggering signal parameters (onset time, size, duration and frequency) and the fault system parameters (fault stiffness, characteristic slip distance, direct velocity and time dependent state effects) are tested separately. Our results indicate that earthquake triggering is controlled mainly by the onset time, size and duration of the triggering signal but not much sensitive to the signal frequency. In terms of fault system parameters, the fault stiffness and the direct velocity effect are the critical parameters in triggering processes. Among the tested RSF laws, “Ruina” law is more sensitive than “Dieterich” law to both static and dynamic changes and “Perrin” is apparently the most sensitive law to dynamic changes. Especially, when the triggering onset time is close to an unperturbed failure time (future earthquake), dynamic changes result the largest clock advancement, otherwise, static stress changes are substantially more effective. In the next step, realistic models will be established to simulate the effect of the recent (26 September 2019) Marmara earthquake with Mw=5.7 on the locked Kumburgaz fault segment of the North Anatolian Fault Zone. The triggering earthquake will be simulated by combining the static stress change computed via Coulomb law and the dynamic effects using ground motions recorded at broadband seismic stations within similar distances. Outcomes will help us to better understand the effects of static and dynamic changes on the seismic cycle of the Kumburgaz fault segment, which is expected to break soon with a possibly big earthquake causing damage at the metropolitan area of Istanbul in Turkey.</p>


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