Why rare events can cause a risky shift in decisions under uncertainty

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susanne Haberstroh ◽  
Dorothee Korner
2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aba Szollosi ◽  
Garston Liang ◽  
Emmanouil Konstantinidis ◽  
Chris Donkin ◽  
Ben R Newell

We investigated previous findings suggesting a paradoxical inconsistency of people’s beliefs and choices: When making decisions under uncertainty, people seem to both overestimate the probability of rare events in their judgments and underweight the probability of the same rare events in their choices. In our re-examination, we found that people’s beliefs are consistent with their decisions, but they do not necessarily correspond with the environment. Both overestimation and underweighting of the rare event seemed to result from (most, but not all) participants’ mistaken belief that they can infer and exploit sequential patterns in a static environment. In addition, we found that such inaccurate representations can be improved through incentives. Finally, detailed analysis suggested a mixture of individual level response patterns, which can give rise to an erroneous interpretation of group-level patterns. Our results offer an explanation for why beliefs and decisions can appear contradictory and present challenges to some current models of decisions under uncertainty.


1973 ◽  
Vol 28 (12) ◽  
pp. 1141-1141
Author(s):  
Robert R. Rodgers
Keyword(s):  

1972 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 365-365
Author(s):  
Eugene Burnstein ◽  
Harold Miller ◽  
Amiram Vinokur ◽  
Stuart Katz ◽  
Joan Crowley
Keyword(s):  

2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (6) ◽  
pp. 8463-8475
Author(s):  
Palanivel Srinivasan ◽  
Manivannan Doraipandian

Rare event detections are performed using spatial domain and frequency domain-based procedures. Omnipresent surveillance camera footages are increasing exponentially due course the time. Monitoring all the events manually is an insignificant and more time-consuming process. Therefore, an automated rare event detection contrivance is required to make this process manageable. In this work, a Context-Free Grammar (CFG) is developed for detecting rare events from a video stream and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is used to train CFG. A set of dedicated algorithms are used to perform frame split process, edge detection, background subtraction and convert the processed data into CFG. The developed CFG is converted into nodes and edges to form a graph. The graph is given to the input layer of an ANN to classify normal and rare event classes. Graph derived from CFG using input video stream is used to train ANN Further the performance of developed Artificial Neural Network Based Context-Free Grammar – Rare Event Detection (ACFG-RED) is compared with other existing techniques and performance metrics such as accuracy, precision, sensitivity, recall, average processing time and average processing power are used for performance estimation and analyzed. Better performance metrics values have been observed for the ANN-CFG model compared with other techniques. The developed model will provide a better solution in detecting rare events using video streams.


ACS Omega ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (49) ◽  
pp. 31608-31623
Author(s):  
Samuel D. Lotz ◽  
Alex Dickson

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