scholarly journals Simultaneous Underweighting and Overestimation of Rare Events: Unpacking a Paradox

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aba Szollosi ◽  
Garston Liang ◽  
Emmanouil Konstantinidis ◽  
Chris Donkin ◽  
Ben R Newell
Keyword(s):  
Detailed Analysis ◽  
Rare Events ◽  
Rare Event ◽  
Sequential Patterns ◽  
Response Patterns ◽  
Group Level ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Decisions Under Uncertainty ◽  
Mistaken Belief ◽  
Erroneous Interpretation

We investigated previous findings suggesting a paradoxical inconsistency of people’s beliefs and choices: When making decisions under uncertainty, people seem to both overestimate the probability of rare events in their judgments and underweight the probability of the same rare events in their choices. In our re-examination, we found that people’s beliefs are consistent with their decisions, but they do not necessarily correspond with the environment. Both overestimation and underweighting of the rare event seemed to result from (most, but not all) participants’ mistaken belief that they can infer and exploit sequential patterns in a static environment. In addition, we found that such inaccurate representations can be improved through incentives. Finally, detailed analysis suggested a mixture of individual level response patterns, which can give rise to an erroneous interpretation of group-level patterns. Our results offer an explanation for why beliefs and decisions can appear contradictory and present challenges to some current models of decisions under uncertainty.

Framework for rare event detection using Artificial Neural Network based context free grammar

2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (6) ◽  
pp. 8463-8475
Author(s):  
Palanivel Srinivasan ◽  
Manivannan Doraipandian
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Event Detection ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Rare Events ◽  
Rare Event ◽  
Video Stream ◽  
Context Free Grammar ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Context Free

Rare event detections are performed using spatial domain and frequency domain-based procedures. Omnipresent surveillance camera footages are increasing exponentially due course the time. Monitoring all the events manually is an insignificant and more time-consuming process. Therefore, an automated rare event detection contrivance is required to make this process manageable. In this work, a Context-Free Grammar (CFG) is developed for detecting rare events from a video stream and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is used to train CFG. A set of dedicated algorithms are used to perform frame split process, edge detection, background subtraction and convert the processed data into CFG. The developed CFG is converted into nodes and edges to form a graph. The graph is given to the input layer of an ANN to classify normal and rare event classes. Graph derived from CFG using input video stream is used to train ANN Further the performance of developed Artificial Neural Network Based Context-Free Grammar – Rare Event Detection (ACFG-RED) is compared with other existing techniques and performance metrics such as accuracy, precision, sensitivity, recall, average processing time and average processing power are used for performance estimation and analyzed. Better performance metrics values have been observed for the ANN-CFG model compared with other techniques. The developed model will provide a better solution in detecting rare events using video streams.

Reply to Connor and Evers (2020): Critique of the Bias of Crowds Model Simply Restates the Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keith Payne ◽  
Heidi A. Vuletich ◽  
Kristjen B. Lundberg
Keyword(s):  
Implicit Bias ◽  
Group Level ◽  
Systemic Racism ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Core ◽  
Psychological Science ◽  
Implicit Biases ◽  
The Individual

The Bias of Crowds model (Payne, Vuletich, & Lundberg, 2017) argues that implicit bias varies across individuals and across contexts. It is unreliable and weakly associated with behavior at the individual level. But when aggregated to measure context-level effects, the scores become stable and predictive of group-level outcomes. We concluded that the statistical benefits of aggregation are so powerful that researchers should reconceptualize implicit bias as a feature of contexts, and ask new questions about how implicit biases relate to systemic racism. Connor and Evers (2020) critiqued the model, but their critique simply restates the core claims of the model. They agreed that implicit bias varies across individuals and across contexts; that it is unreliable and weakly associated with behavior at the individual level; and that aggregating scores to measure context-level effects makes them more stable and predictive of group-level outcomes. Connor and Evers concluded that implicit bias should be considered to really be noisily measured individual construct because the effects of aggregation are merely statistical. We respond to their specific arguments and then discuss what it means to really be a feature of persons versus situations, and multilevel measurement and theory in psychological science more broadly.

scholarly journals Examining the Effects of Three Group-Level Metacognitive Scaffoldings on In-Service Teachers’ Knowledge Building

2021 ◽  
pp. 073563312110308
Author(s):  
Fan Ouyang ◽  
Si Chen ◽  
Yuqin Yang ◽  
Yunqing Chen
Keyword(s):  
Small Groups ◽  
Mixed Method ◽  
Peer Interactions ◽  
Knowledge Building ◽  
Group Level ◽  
Question Asking ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Task Oriented ◽  
Metacognitive Scaffolding

Group-level metacognitive scaffolding is critical for productive knowledge building. However, previous research mainly focuses on the individual-level metacognitive scaffoldings in helping learners improve knowledge building, and little effort has been made to develop group-level metacognitive scaffolding (GMS) for knowledge building. This research designed three group-level metacognitive scaffoldings of general, task-oriented, and idea-oriented scaffoldings to facilitate in-service teachers’ knowledge building in small groups. A mixed method is used to examine the effects of the GMSs on groups’ knowledge building processes, performances, and perceptions. Results indicate a complication of the effects of GMSs on knowledge building. The idea-oriented scaffolding has potential to facilitate question-asking and perspective-proposing inquiry through peer interactions; the general scaffolding does not necessarily lessen teachers’ idea-centered explanation and elaboration on the individual level; the task-oriented scaffolding has the worst effect. Pedagogical and research implications are discussed to foster knowledge building with the support of GMSs.

scholarly journals Interspecies Chromosome Mapping in Caprimulgiformes, Piciformes, Suliformes, and Trogoniformes (Aves): Cytogenomic Insight into Microchromosome Organization and Karyotype Evolution in Birds

Cells ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 826
Author(s):  
Rafael Kretschmer ◽  
Marcelo Santos de Souza ◽  
Ivanete de Oliveira Furo ◽  
Michael N. Romanov ◽  
Ricardo José Gunski ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Convergent Evolution ◽  
Karyotype Evolution ◽  
Rare Events ◽  
Rare Event ◽  
Chromosome Mapping ◽  
The Other ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
Interchromosomal Rearrangement ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Phalacrocorax Brasilianus

Interchromosomal rearrangements involving microchromosomes are rare events in birds. To date, they have been found mostly in Psittaciformes, Falconiformes, and Cuculiformes, although only a few orders have been analyzed. Hence, cytogenomic studies focusing on microchromosomes in species belonging to different bird orders are essential to shed more light on the avian chromosome and karyotype evolution. Based on this, we performed a comparative chromosome mapping for chicken microchromosomes 10 to 28 using interspecies BAC-based FISH hybridization in five species, representing four Neoaves orders (Caprimulgiformes, Piciformes, Suliformes, and Trogoniformes). Our results suggest that the ancestral microchromosomal syntenies are conserved in Pteroglossus inscriptus (Piciformes), Ramphastos tucanus tucanus (Piciformes), and Trogon surrucura surrucura (Trogoniformes). On the other hand, chromosome reorganization in Phalacrocorax brasilianus (Suliformes) and Hydropsalis torquata (Caprimulgiformes) included fusions involving both macro- and microchromosomes. Fissions in macrochromosomes were observed in P. brasilianus and H. torquata. Relevant hypothetical Neognathae and Neoaves ancestral karyotypes were reconstructed to trace these rearrangements. We found no interchromosomal rearrangement involving microchromosomes to be shared between avian orders where rearrangements were detected. Our findings suggest that convergent evolution involving microchromosomal change is a rare event in birds and may be appropriate in cytotaxonomic inferences in orders where these rearrangements occurred.

Pluralistic Ignorance Research in Psychology: A Scoping Review of Topic and Method Variation and Directions for Future Research

2021 ◽  
pp. 108926802199516
Author(s):  
Rikki H. Sargent ◽  
Leonard S. Newman
Keyword(s):  
Scoping Review ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Pluralistic Ignorance ◽  
Group Level ◽  
Conceptual Approach ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Group Members

Pluralistic ignorance occurs when group members mistakenly believe others’ cognitions and/or behaviors are systematically different from their own. More than 20 years have passed since the last review of pluralistic ignorance from a psychological framework, with more than 60 empirical articles assessing pluralistic ignorance published since then. Previous reviews took an almost entirely conceptual approach with minimal review of methodology, making existing reviews outdated and limited in the extent to which they can provide guidelines for researchers. The goal of this review is to evaluate and integrate the literature on pluralistic ignorance, clarify important conceptual issues, identify inconsistencies in the literature, and provide guidance for future research. We provide a comprehensive definition for the phenomenon, with a focus on its status as a group-level phenomenon. We highlight three areas of variation in particular in the current scoping review: variation in topics assessed, variation in measurement, and (especially) variation in methods for assessing the implications of individual-level misperceptions that, in aggregate, lead to pluralistic ignorance. By filling these gaps in the literature, we ultimately hope to motivate further analysis of the phenomenon.

scholarly journals Accepting the truth: A step toward reconciliation

Temida ◽  
2002 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 15-18
Author(s):  
Zoran Ilic
Keyword(s):  
National Identity ◽  
Defense Mechanism ◽  
Psychological Explanation ◽  
The Other ◽  
Group Level ◽  
Moral Norms ◽  
Extreme Form ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Psychological Mechanisms

The truth is not only about accepting the facts. The truth includes emotional components - longing for acknowledgment of mistakes and validation of painful losses and experiences. While one side in the conflict considers itself as the only victim and experiences determination and acknowledgment of the truth as a possibility for healing its own trauma through satisfaction of justice and compensation, the other side is not accepting the truth. For this other side, confrontation with the facts is a painful trauma, which endangers individual moral norms, threatens the national identity and requires, on individual level, plugging in the defense mechanism, in order to prevent penetration of painful emotions into the consciousness. Primitive psychological mechanisms of defense, focused around splitting (projection, denial), are the main obstacles in accepting the truth both on individual and group level. There is also another extreme form of reaction manifested through "hypertrophy" of the truth and one-sided self-accusation. In this paper the author presents psychological explanation of the process of accepting the truth as the prerequisite for reconciliation and transformation of the conflict.

scholarly journals Isolated individuals and groups show opposite preferences toward humidity

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariano Calvo Martín ◽  
Stamatios C. Nicolis ◽  
Isaac Planas-Sitjà ◽  
Jean-Christophe de Biseau ◽  
Jean-Louis Deneubourg
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Group Level ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Multi Level ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Shed Light ◽  
Selection Of

AbstractCockroaches, like most social arthropods, are led to choose collectively among different alternative resting places. These decisions are modulated by different factors, such as environmental conditions (temperature, relative humidity) and sociality (groups size, nature of communications). The aim of this study is to establish the interplay between environmental conditions and the modulation of the interactions between individuals within a group leading to an inversion of preferences. We show that the preferences of isolated cockroaches and groups of 16 individuals, on the selection of the relative humidity of a shelter are inversed and shed light on the mechanisms involved. We suggest that the relative humidity has a multi-level influence on cockroaches, manifested as an attractant effect at the individual level and as a negative effect at the group level, modulating the interactions.

scholarly journals The Online Elicitation of Personal Utility Functions (OPUF) tool: a new method for valuing health states

2022 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. 14
Author(s):  
Paul Schneider ◽  
Ben van Hout ◽  
Marike Heisen ◽  
John Brazier ◽  
Nancy Devlin
Keyword(s):  
Utility Functions ◽  
Health State ◽  
Group Level ◽  
Health States ◽  
Online Tool ◽  
Value Set ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Personal Utility ◽  
Value Sets ◽  
The Individual

Introduction Standard valuation methods, such as TTO and DCE are inefficient. They require data from hundreds if not thousands of participants to generate value sets. Here, we present the Online elicitation of Personal Utility Functions (OPUF) tool; a new type of online survey for valuing EQ-5D-5L health states using more efficient, compositional elicitation methods, which even allow estimating value sets on the individual level. The aims of this study are to report on the development of the tool, and to test the feasibility of using it to obtain individual-level value sets for the EQ-5D-5L. Methods We applied an iterative design approach to adapt the PUF method, previously developed by Devlin et al., for use as a standalone online tool. Five rounds of qualitative interviews, and one quantitative pre-pilot were conducted to get feedback on the different tasks. After each round, the tool was refined and re-evaluated. The final version was piloted in a sample of 50 participants from the UK. A demo of the EQ-5D-5L OPUF survey is available at: https://eq5d5l.me Results On average, it took participants about seven minutes to complete the OPUF Tool. Based on the responses, we were able to construct a personal EQ-5D-5L value set for each of the 50 participants. These value sets predicted a participants' choices in a discrete choice experiment with an accuracy of 80%. Overall, the results revealed that health state preferences vary considerably on the individual-level. Nevertheless, we were able to estimate a group-level value set for all 50 participants with reasonable precision. Discussion We successfully piloted the OPUF Tool and showed that it can be used to derive a group-level as well as personal value sets for the EQ-5D-5L. Although the development of the online tool is still in an early stage, there are multiple potential avenues for further research.

scholarly journals The closer to the Europe Union headquarters, the higher risk of COVID-19? Cautions regarding ecological studies of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuai Li ◽  
Xinyang Hua
Keyword(s):  
European Country ◽  
Ecological Study ◽  
Ecological Fallacy ◽  
Group Level ◽  
Ecological Studies ◽  
Public Concern ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Public ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Level Data

AbstractSeveral ecological studies of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have reported correlations between group-level aggregated exposures and COVID-19 outcomes. While some studies might be helpful in generating new hypotheses related to COVID-19, results of such type of studies should be interpreted with cautions. To illustrate how ecological studies and results could be biased, we conducted an ecological study of COVID-19 outcomes and the distance to Brussels using European country-level data. We found that, the distance was negatively correlated with COVID-19 outcomes; every 100 km away from Brussels was associated with approximately 6% to 17% reductions (all P<0.01) in COVID-19 cases and deaths in Europe. Without cautions, such results could be interpreted as the closer to the Europe Union headquarters, the higher risk of COVID-19 in Europe. However, these results are more likely to reflect the differences in the timing of and the responding to the outbreak, etc. between European countries, rather than the ‘effect’ of the distance to Brussels itself. Associations observed at the group level have limitations to reflect individual-level associations – the so-called ecological fallacy. Given the public concern over COVID-19, ecological studies should be conducted and interpreted with great cautions, in case the results would be mistakenly understood.

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