Heat waves in South Korea: differences of heat wave characteristics by thermal indices

2018 ◽  
Vol 29 (6) ◽  
pp. 790-805 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seulkee Heo ◽  
Michelle L. Bell
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Thermal Indices ◽  
Wave Characteristics

scholarly journals Probabilistic Heat Wave Forecast Based on a Large-Scale Circulation Pattern Using the TIGGE Data

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 367-377
Author(s):  
Hyun-Ju Lee ◽  
Woo-Seop Lee ◽  
Jong Ahn Chun ◽  
Hwa Woon Lee
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Multimodel Ensemble ◽  
Large Scale Circulation ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Wave Forecast ◽  
Prediction Systems

Abstract Forecasting extreme events is important for having more time to prepare and mitigate high-impact events because those are expected to become more frequent, intense, and persistent around the globe in the future under the warming atmosphere. This study evaluates the probabilistic predictability of the heat wave index (HWI) associated with large-scale circulation patterns for predicting heat waves over South Korea. The HWI, reflecting heat waves over South Korea, was defined as the vorticity difference at 200 hPa between the South China Sea and northeast Asia. The forecast of up to 15 days from five ensemble prediction systems and the multimodel ensemble has been used to predict the probabilistic HWI during the summers of 2011–15. The ensemble prediction systems consist of different five operational centers, and the forecast skill of the probability of heat waves occurrence was assessed using the Brier skill score (BSS), relative operating characteristics (ROC), and reliability diagram. It was found that the multimodel ensemble is capable of better predicting the large-scale circulation patterns leading to heat waves over South Korea than any other single ensemble system through all forecast lead times. We concluded that the probabilistic forecast of the HWI has promise as a tool to take appropriate and timely actions to minimize the loss of lives and properties from imminent heat waves.

scholarly journals Regional Climate Model Projections and Uncertainties of U.S. Summer Heat Waves

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (16) ◽  
pp. 4447-4458 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth E. Kunkel ◽  
Xin-Zhong Liang ◽  
Jinhong Zhu
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Threshold Temperature ◽  
Wave Characteristics

Abstract Regional climate model (RCM) simulations, driven by low and high climate-sensitivity coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) under various future emissions scenarios, were compared to projected changes in heat wave characteristics. The RCM downscaling reduces the CGCM biases in heat wave threshold temperature by a factor of 2, suggesting a higher credibility in the future projections. All of the RCM simulations suggest that there is a high probability of heat waves of unprecedented severity by the end of the twenty-first century if a high emissions path is followed. In particular, the annual 3-day heat wave temperature increases generally by 3°–8°C; the number of heat wave days increases by 30–60 day yr−1 over much of the western and southern United States with slightly smaller increases elsewhere; the variance spectra for intermediate, 3–7 days (prolonged, 7–14 days), temperature extremes increase (decrease) in the central (western) United States. If a lower emissions path is followed, then the outcomes range from quite small changes to substantial increases. In all cases, the mean temperature climatological shift is the dominant change in heat wave characteristics, suggesting that adaptation and acclimatization could reduce effects.

scholarly journals Occurrence of heat wave in Korea by the displacement of South Asian High

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yumi Cha ◽  
JaeWon Choi ◽  
Eung-Sup Kim ◽  
Joong-Bae Ahn
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Indian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
South Asian High ◽  
Iranian Plateau ◽  
The North

Abstract The South Asian high (SAH) index was defined using the 200 hPa geopotential height for 1973–2019. Of movements of the SAH center in the north-south, east-west, northwest-southeast, and southwest-northeast directions, movement in the northwest-southeast direction showed the highest positive correlation with heat wave days (HWDs) in South Korea. Thirteen years with the highest SAH values (positive SAH years) and 13 years with the lowest SAH values (negative SAH years) were selected from a time series of SAH indices from which the linear trend was removed, and differences between these two groups were analyzed. An analysis of vertical meridional circulation averaged along 120°-130°E showed that in latitude zones containing Korea, anomalous downward flows with anomalous high pressures formed in the entire troposphere and coincided with positive air temperature and specific humidity. An analysis of stream flows and geopotential heights showed that in positive SAH years, anomalous anticyclones developed in Korea, the North Pacific, North America, western Europe, and the Iranian Plateau. These anticyclones had the wavenumber-5 pattern and showed more distinct barotropic vertical structures at higher altitudes, which resembled the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) pattern. The maintenance of CGT depends on the interaction between CGT circulation and the Indian summer monsoon (ISM), which has a major influence on the mid-latitude atmosphere. Strengthening of the ISM results in the formation of upper-level anomalous anticyclones in the northwestern Iranian Plateau and creates continuous downstream cells along the waveguide due to Rossby wave dispersion. When diabetic heating by Indian summer monsoon precipitation is strengthened, the SAH is strengthened to the northwest of India, and a positive CGT pattern is formed. As a result, anomalous anticyclones were formed in all layers of the Korean troposphere resulting in heat waves, tropical nights, and droughts exacerbated in South Korea.

scholarly journals The Record-Breaking Heat Wave in 2016 over South Korea and Its Physical Mechanism

2018 ◽  
Vol 146 (5) ◽  
pp. 1463-1474 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sang-Wook Yeh ◽  
You-Jin Won ◽  
Jin-Sil Hong ◽  
Kang-Jin Lee ◽  
MinHo Kwon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Korean Peninsula ◽  
Geopotential Height ◽  
Physical Mechanism ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
Kamchatka Peninsula ◽  
Teleconnection Pattern ◽  
Strong Convection

Abstract It is important to understand the dynamical processes that cause heat waves at regional scales. This study examined the physical mechanism that was responsible for a heat wave in South Korea in August 2016. Unlike previous August heat waves over the Korean Peninsula, the intensity of the geopotential height over the Kamchatka Peninsula in August 2016 was the strongest since 1979, which acted as an atmospheric blocking in the downstream region of the Korean Peninsula. Therefore, the anomalous high geopotential height in Mongolia, where the surface temperature was quite high, was observed persistently in August 2016. This anomalous high in Mongolia induced northerly winds with warm temperatures onto the Korean Peninsula, which contributed to a heat wave in August 2016. We further showed that the anomalous high geopotential height over the Kamchatka Peninsula in August 2016 was triggered by strong convection in the western-to-central subtropical Pacific through atmospheric teleconnections, which was quite different from a typical heat wave over the Korean Peninsula, in which convective forcing around the South China Sea is strong. This implies that convective forcing in the subtropical Pacific should also be monitored to predict heat wave events in East Asia, including South Korea. On the other hand, the zonal wave train associated with the circumglobal teleconnection pattern is also associated with the anomalous high geopotential height around Mongolia and the Kamchatka Peninsula, which may have contributed to the heat wave in August 2016.

scholarly journals Heat wave characteristics, mortality and effect modification by temperature zones: a time-series study in 130 counties of China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhiying Sun ◽  
Chen Chen ◽  
Meilin Yan ◽  
Wanying Shi ◽  
Jiaonan Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Effect Of Temperature ◽  
Accidental Death ◽  
Wave Characteristics ◽  
Disease Mortality ◽  
Maximum Temperatures ◽  
Daily Total

Abstract Background The substantial disease burden attributed to heat waves, and their increasing frequency and intensity due to climate change, highlight the importance of understanding the health consequences of heat waves. We explore the mortality risk due to heat wave characteristics, including the timing in the seasons, the day of the heat wave, the intensity and the duration, and the modifying effect of temperature zones. Methods Heat waves were defined as ≥ 2 days with a temperature ≥99th percentile for the county from 1 May through 30 September. Heat waves were characterized by their intensity, duration, timing in the season, and day of the heat wave. Within each county, we estimated the total non-accidental death and cardiovascular disease mortality during each heat wave compared with non-heat wave days by controlling for potential confounders in summer. We combined individual heat wave effect estimates using a random-effects model to calculate overall effects at the temperature zone and national levels. Results The average daily total number of non-accidental deaths was nine in the warm season (across all the counties). Approximately half of the daily total number of non-accidental deaths were cardiovascular-related deaths (approximately four persons per day). The average and maximum temperatures across the study area were 23.1 °C (range: -1.2–35.9 °C) and 28.3 °C (range: 5.4–42.8 °C), respectively. The average relative humidity during the study was 68.9% (range: 8.0–100.0%). Heat waves increase the risk of total non-accidental death by 15.7% [95% confidence interval (CI): 12.5, 18.9] compared with non-heat wave periods, and the risk of cardiovascular-related death increases by 22.0% (95% CI: 16.9, 27.4). The risk of non-accidental death during the first heat wave of the season increases by 16.3% (95% CI: 12.6, 20.2), the risk during the second heat wave increases by 6.3% (95% CI: 2.8, 9.9) and during subsequent heat waves increases by -2.1% (95% CI: -4.6, 0.4). The first day and the second to third days of heat waves increase the risk of total non-accidental death by 11.7% (95% CI: 7.6, 15.9) and 17.0% (95% CI: 13.1, 21.0), respectively. Effects of heat waves on mortality lasted more than 4 days (6.3%, 95% CI: 2.4, 10.5) and are non-significantly different from the first day of heat waves. We found non-significant differences of the heat wave-associated mortality risks across mid-, Warm and subtropical temperature zones. Conclusions In China, the effect of heat waves on mortality is acute, and varies by certain characteristics of heat waves. Given these results, national heat wave early warning systems should be developed, as well as precautions and protection warranted according to characteristics of heat waves.

Heat wave characteristics over India during ENSO events

2021 ◽  
Vol 130 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
N Naveena ◽  
G Ch Satyanarayana ◽  
K Koteswara Rao ◽  
N Umakanth ◽  
D Srinivas
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Wave Characteristics

Changes of western European heat wave characteristics projected by the CMIP5 ensemble

2014 ◽  
Vol 45 (5-6) ◽  
pp. 1601-1616 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Schoetter ◽  
Julien Cattiaux ◽  
Hervé Douville
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Wave Characteristics ◽  
Western European
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