Inflammatory Bowel Disease Risk Variants Are Associated with an Increased Risk of Skin Cancer

Background Inflammatory bowel disease is associated with an increased risk of skin cancer. The aims of this study were to determine whether IBD susceptibility variants are also associated with skin cancer susceptibility and if such risk is augmented by use of immune-suppressive therapy. Methods The discovery cohort included participants in the UK Biobank. The validation cohort included participants in the Michigan Genomics Initiative. The primary outcome of interest was skin cancer, subgrouped into nonmelanoma skin cancers (NMSC) and melanoma skin cancers (MSC). Multivariable logistic regression with matched controls (3 controls:1 case) was performed to identify genomic predictors of skin malignancy in the discovery cohort. Variants with P < .05 were tested for replication in the validation cohort. Validated Single nucleotide polymorphisms were then evaluated for effect modification by immune-suppressive medications. Results The discovery cohort included 10,247 cases of NMSC and 1883 cases of MSC. The validation cohort included 7334 cases of NMSC and 3304 cases of MSC. Twenty-nine variants were associated with risk of NMSC in the discovery cohort, of which 5 replicated in the validation cohort (increased risk, rs7773324-A [DUSP22; IRF4], rs2476601-G [PTPN22], rs1847472-C [BACH2], rs72810983-A [CPEB4]; decreased risk, rs6088765-G [PROCR; MMP24]). Twelve variants were associated with risk of MSC in the discovery cohort, of which 4 were replicated in the validation cohort (increased risk, rs61839660-T [IL2RA]; decreased risk, rs17391694-C [GIPC2; MGC27382], rs6088765-G [PROCR; MMP24], and rs1728785-C [ZFP90]). No effect modification was observed. Conclusions The results of this study highlight shared genetic susceptibility across IBD and skin cancer, with increased risk of NMSC in those who carry risk variants in IRF4, PTPN22, CPEB4, and BACH2 and increased risk of MSC in those who carry a risk variant in IL2RA.

Modeling treatment effect modification in multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in an individual patientdata meta-analysis

Effect modification occurs while the effect of the treatment is not homogeneous across the different strata of patient characteristics. When the effect of treatment may vary from individual to individual, precision medicine can be improved by identifying patient covariates to estimate the size and direction of the effect at the individual level. However, this task is statistically challenging and typically requires large amounts of data. Investigators may be interested in using the individual patient data from multiple studies to estimate these treatment effect models. Our data arise from a systematic review of observational studies contrasting different treatments for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, where multiple antimicrobial agents are taken concurrently to cure the infection. We propose a marginal structural model for effect modification by different patient characteristics and co-medications in a meta-analysis of observational individual patient data. We develop, evaluate, and apply a targeted maximum likelihood estimator for the doubly robust estimation of the parameters of the proposed marginal structural model in this context. In particular, we allow for differential availability of treatments across studies, measured confounding within and across studies, and random effects by study.

Sensitivity analysis for unobserved confounding in causal mediation analysis allowing for effect modification, censoring and truncation

Causal mediation analysis is used to decompose the total effect of an exposure on an outcome into an indirect effect, taking the path through an intermediate variable, and a direct effect. To estimate these effects, strong assumptions are made about unconfoundedness of the relationships between the exposure, mediator and outcome. These assumptions are difficult to verify in a given situation and therefore a mediation analysis should be complemented with a sensitivity analysis to assess the possible impact of violations. In this paper we present a method for sensitivity analysis to not only unobserved mediator-outcome confounding, which has largely been the focus of previous literature, but also unobserved confounding involving the exposure. The setting is estimation of natural direct and indirect effects based on parametric regression models. We present results for combinations of binary and continuous mediators and outcomes and extend the sensitivity analysis for mediator-outcome confounding to cases where the continuous outcome variable is censored or truncated. The proposed methods perform well also in the presence of interactions between the exposure, mediator and observed confounders, allowing for modeling flexibility as well as exploration of effect modification. The performance of the method is illustrated through simulations and an empirical example.

Association of Night Shift Work With Chronic Spontaneous Urticaria and Effect Modification by Circadian Dysfunction Among Workers

Purpose: Night shift work is common in the current working environment and is a risk factor for many diseases. The study aimed to explore the relationship between night shift work with chronic spontaneous urticaria (CSU), and the modification effect of circadian dysfunction on it.Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted among Chinese workers. Exposure was measured by night work history and duration. Circadian dysfunction was characterized by excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS). The diagnosis of CSU was made by dermatologists who were investigating on the spot. The effect size was expressed as odds ratios (ORs).Results: A total of 8,057 participants were recruited, and 7,411 (92%) with complete information were included in the final analyses. The prevalence rates of CSU for workers without night shift and those with night shift history were 0.73 and 1.28%, respectively. Compared with workers who never worked night shifts, the risk of CSU increased with the length of night shift work: OR = 1.55 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.78–3.06) for duration <5 years and OR = 1.91 (95% CI: 1.12–3.26) for duration ≥5 years. EDS s EDS has been shown to modify this combination. Among workers without EDS, there was no association between night shift and CSU (OR = 0.94; 95% CI: 0.49–1.79). Whereas, in participants with EDS, the correlation was significant (OR = 3.58; 95% CI: 1.14–11.20). However, the effect modification by sleep disturbance was not observed.Conclusions: Night shift work is a risk factor for CSU, and there is a dose-response relationship between night shift work hours and the risk of CSU. This connection may be modified by circadian dysfunction.

Prenatal Exposure to Chemical Mixtures and Cognitive Flexibility among Adolescents

Cognitive flexibility, the ability to smoothly adapt to changing circumstances, is a skill that is vital to higher-level executive functions such as problem-solving, planning, and reasoning. As it undergoes substantial development during adolescence, decrements in cognitive flexibility may not become apparent until this time. There is evidence that prenatal exposure to individual chemicals may adversely impact executive functions in children, but few studies have explored the association of co-exposure to multiple chemicals with cognitive flexibility specifically among adolescents. We investigated this association among a diverse group of adolescents living near a Superfund site in New Bedford, Massachusetts. Specifically, using Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) and multivariable regression analyses, we investigated the association of biomarkers of prenatal exposure to organochlorines (DDE, HCB, PCBs) and metals (lead, manganese) with cognitive flexibility, measured with four subtests of the Delis-Kaplan Executive Function System. In BKMR models, we observed adverse joint associations of the chemical mixture with two of the four cognitive flexibility subtests. In covariate-adjusted linear regression models, a two-fold increase in cord blood Mn was associated with poorer performance on two of the subtests: Trail-Making (scaled score difference = −0.60; 95% CI: −1.16, −0.05 points) and Color-Word Interference (scaled score difference = −0.53; 95% CI: −1.08, 0.01 points). These adverse Mn-cognitive flexibility associations were supported by the results of the BKMR. There was little evidence of effect modification by sex and some evidence of effect modification by a measure of social disadvantage, particularly for the associations between HCB and cognitive flexibility. This study is among the first to provide evidence of an adverse association of prenatal exposure to a chemical mixture with cognitive flexibility in adolescence.

What Determines Vulnerability to Neighborhood Walkability in Older Adults?

Environmental influences are recognized as important predictors of walking behaviors in older adults. However, individuals may differ in vulnerability to low environmental walkability. We determined associations of a walkability index (factor analysis of 16 variables; range -1.65 to 2.23) from audits of online images with self-reported walking behaviors in 406 adults mean age=82 (44% male, 39% Black). Effect modification by 12 variables representing sociodemographics, physical and mental health, and neighborhood characteristics was tested in general linear models. Effect modification was evident for knee pain, marital status, and neighborhood socioeconomic status (nSES) (all p-interaction<0.05); associations were present only in those with knee pain, those who were unmarried, and those in the highest race-specific tertile of nSES. For example, a 1 point higher walkability score was associated with 1.06 (CI: 0.78, 1.44) higher odds of walking in those without knee pain compared to 1.91 (CI: 1.25, 2.90) in those with knee pain.