scholarly journals Using machine learning improves predictions of herd-level bovine tuberculosis breakdowns in Great Britain

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Stański ◽  
S. Lycett ◽  
T. Porphyre ◽  
B. M. de C. Bronsvoort

AbstractIn the United Kingdom, despite decades of control efforts, bovine tuberculosis (bTB) has not been controlled and currently costs ~ £100 m annually. Critical in the failure of control efforts has been the lack of a sufficiently sensitive diagnostic test. Here we use machine learning (ML) to predict herd-level bTB breakdowns in Great Britain (GB) with the aim of improving herd-level diagnostic sensitivity. The results of routinely-collected herd-level tests were correlated with risk factor data. Four ML methods were independently trained with data from 2012–2014 including ~ 4700 positive herd-level test results annually. The best model’s performance was compared to the observed sensitivity and specificity of the herd-level test calculated on the 2015 data resulting in an increased herd-level sensitivity from 61.3 to 67.6% (95% confidence interval (CI): 66.4–68.8%) and herd-level specificity from 90.5 to 92.3% (95% CI: 91.6–93.1%). This approach can improve predictive capability for herd-level bTB and support disease control.

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. e0247838
Author(s):  
Md. Nazimul Islam ◽  
Mohammad Kamruzzaman Khan ◽  
Mohammad Ferdousur Rahman Khan ◽  
Polychronis Kostoulas ◽  
A. K. M. Anisur Rahman ◽  
...  

Bovine tuberculosis (bTb) is endemic in Bangladesh but the true prevalence has not yet been reported. Our objectives for this study were to determine the true prevalence and identify risk factors for bTb at the animal- and herd-level in Bangladesh. A total of 510 cows were randomly selected during January 2018 to December 2018. Caudal fold (CFT) and comparative cervical tuberculin tests (CCT) were serially interpreted. Animal- and herd-level risk factor data were collected using a pre-tested questionnaire. The hierarchical true prevalence of bTb was estimated within a Bayesian framework. The herd- and animal-level risk factors were identified using mixed effects logistic regression. The apparent prevalence of bTb was 20.6% [95% Confidence Interval (CI): 17.3; 24.3] based on CFT. The animal-level true prevalence of bTb was 21.9 (13.0; 32.4). The herd-level true prevalence in different regions varied from 41.9% to 88.8%. The region-level true prevalence was 49.9 (13.8; 91.2). There is a 100% certainty that herds from Bhaluka and Mymensingh Sadar upazilas are not free from bTb. The odds of bTb were 3.9 times (1.2; 12.6) higher in herds having more than four cows than those with ≤ 4 cows. On the other hand, the risk of bTb was 3.3 times higher (1.0; 10.5) in non-grazing cows than grazing cows. Crossbred cows were 2.9 times (1.5; 5.9) more likely to be infected with bTb than indigenous cows. The risk of bTb in animals with cough was 2.3 times (1.2; 4.3) higher than those without cough. Crossbred, non-grazing cows with cough should be targeted for bTb surveillance. Herds of the Mymensingh, Sadar and Bhaluka regions should be emphasized for bTb control programs. Estimation of Bayesian hierarchical true prevalence facilitates identification of areas with higher prevalence and can be used to indicate regions that where true prevalence exceeds a pre-specified critical threshold.


2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 276-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
James V. Ray ◽  
Christopher J. Sullivan ◽  
Thomas A. Loughran ◽  
Shayne E. Jones

2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
S Probst ◽  
A Seitz ◽  
G Pirozzolo ◽  
A Becker ◽  
T Schaeufele ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Approximately 10% of patients with acute myocardial infarction do not have a culprit lesion. Such patients have been labelled as MINOCA (myocardial infarction with non-obstructive coronary arteries) and several pathophysiological etiologies have been described as potential explanations. This includes spontaneous coronary dissection, tako-tsubo-syndrome and coronary spasm. The latter can be diagnosed during invasive provocative testing. The aim of this study was to assess the frequency of coronary spasm and the safety of intracoronary provocation testing using acetylcholine in MINOCA patients compared to patients with stable angina and unobstructed coronary arteries. Methods Between 2007 and 2018 180 consecutive patients with either MINOCA or stable angina and unobstructed coronary arteries were enrolled. MINOCA was defined as acute onset of chest pain with either ST-segment elevation on the ECG or significant high sensitive troponin T elevation but no relevant epicardial stenosis (<50%) according to the current ESC guidelines. All patients underwent intracoronary acetylcholine provocation testing (ACH-test) in search of coronary spasm according to a standardized protocol immediately after diagnostic coronary angiography. Apart from systematic assessment of clinical, demographic and risk factor data, data regarding complications during the ACH-test were meticulously recorded. Results Eighty patients with MINOCA and 100 consecutive patients with stable angina were recruited (52% women, mean age 62±13 years). Overall, 59% had hypertension and 20% had diabetes. Comparison of clinical, demographic and risk factor data did not reveal any statistically significant differences except for a female preponderance in the stable patients (61% vs. 40%, p=0.007). The ACH-test revealed a coronary vasomotor disorder in 68% of cases. In 32% of cases the ACH-test was either inconclusive or negative. Epicardial spasm was found in 31% of patients with a higher prevalence among the MINOCA patients compared to the stable angina patients (41% vs. 23%, p=0.002). Microvascular spasm was found in 37% with a higher prevalence among the stable angina patients compared to the MINOCA cohort (49% vs. 23%, p=0.002). Assessment of complications during the ACH-test revealed that 13 MINOCA patients and 15 stable angina patients had minor complications such as intermittent atrioventricular block, sinusbradycardia, paroxysmal atrial fibrillation, ventricular ectopic beats or transient hypotension. Comparison of minor complications between the two groups did not reveal statistically significant differences (16% vs. 15%, p=0.839). None of the patients experienced any irreversible complications. Conclusion Coronary spasm is a frequent cause for MINOCA. Intracoronary spasm provocation testing using acetylcholine is feasible in such patients. The complication rate during ACH-testing in MINOCA patients is low and comparable to patients with stable angina. Acknowledgement/Funding Berthold-Leibinger-Foundation, Ditzingen, Germany


Author(s):  
Carolyn Smith

The following article on juvenile delinquency has three major objectives: First, it defines delinquency and discusses its measurement and extent; second, it reviews theory and risk factor data on causes of delinquency; third, it discusses current trends in juvenile justice intervention and delinquency prevention, including social worker involvement.


2011 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 225-232 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Dalton ◽  
Alex Bottle ◽  
Michael Soljak ◽  
Cyprian Okoro ◽  
Azeem Majeed ◽  
...  

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