scholarly journals Twenty-first century droughts have not increasingly exacerbated fire season severity in the Brazilian Amazon

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Libonati ◽  
J. M. C. Pereira ◽  
C. C. Da Camara ◽  
L. F. Peres ◽  
D. Oom ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Brazilian Amazon ◽  
First Century ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Amazon Forest ◽  
Active Fire ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
In Fire

AbstractBiomass burning in the Brazilian Amazon is modulated by climate factors, such as droughts, and by human factors, such as deforestation, and land management activities. The increase in forest fires during drought years has led to the hypothesis that fire activity decoupled from deforestation during the twenty-first century. However, assessment of the hypothesis relied on an incorrect active fire dataset, which led to an underestimation of the decreasing trend in fire activity and to an inflated rank for year 2015 in terms of active fire counts. The recent correction of that database warrants a reassessment of the relationships between deforestation and fire. Contrasting with earlier findings, we show that the exacerbating effect of drought on fire season severity did not increase from 2003 to 2015 and that the record-breaking dry conditions of 2015 had the least impact on fire season of all twenty-first century severe droughts. Overall, our results for the same period used in the study that originated the fire-deforestation decoupling hypothesis (2003–2015) show that decoupling was clearly weaker than initially proposed. Extension of the study period up to 2019, and novel analysis of trends in fire types and fire intensity strengthened this conclusion. Therefore, the role of deforestation as a driver of fire activity in the region should not be underestimated and must be taken into account when implementing measures to protect the Amazon forest.

Evaluation of critical atmospheric patterns for the occurrence of forest fires in a climate change context in the northwest of Argentine Patagonia.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Verónica Dankiewicz ◽  
Matilde M. Rusticucci ◽  
Soledad M. Collazo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire Hazard ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Argentine Patagonia ◽  
In Fire

<p>Forest fires are a global phenomenon and result from complex interactions between weather and climate conditions, ignition sources, and humans. Understanding these relationships will contribute to the development of management strategies for their mitigation and adaptation. In the context of climate change, fire hazard conditions are expected to increase in many regions of the world due to projected changes in climate, which include an increase in temperatures and the occurrence of more intense droughts. In Argentina, northwestern Patagonia is an area very sensitive to these changes because of its climate, vegetation, the urbanizations highly exposed to fires, and the proximity of two of the largest and oldest National Parks in the country. The main objective of this work is to analyze the possible influence of climate change on some atmospheric patterns related to fire danger in northwestern Argentine Patagonia. The data were obtained from two CMIP5 global climate models CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 and GFDL-ESM2G and the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble, in the historical experiment and two representative concentration pathways: RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The data used in this study cover the region's fire season (FS), from September to April, and were divided into five periods of 20 years each, a historical period (1986-2005), which was compared with four future periods: near (2021-2040), medium (2041-2060), far (2061-2080) and very far (2081-2100). The statistical distribution of the monthly composite fields of the FS was studied for some of the main fire drivers: sea surface temperature in the region of the index EN3.4 (SST EN3.4), sea level pressure anomalies ​​(SLP), surface air temperature anomalies (TAS), the Antarctic Oscillation Index (AOI) and monthly accumulated precipitation (PR). In addition, the partial correlation coefficient was calculated to determine the independent contribution of each atmospheric variable to the Fire Weather Index (FWI), used as a proxy for the mean FS danger. As a result, we observed that SST EN3.4 is the only one that could indicate a reduction in fire danger in the future, although no variable presented a significant contribution to the FWI with respect to the others. In the RCP8.5 scenario, greater fire danger is projected by the TAS, the PR, the SLP, and relative by the AOI, while in the RCP2.6 scenario, only the TAS shows influence leading to an increase, which would be offset by the opposite influence of SST EN3.4 for the same periods in this scenario. In conclusion, in RCP8.5 it could be assumed that there is a trend towards an increase in fire danger given the influence in this sense of most of the variables analyzed, but not in RCP2.6 where there would be no significant changes.</p>

Potential changes in monthly fire risk in the eastern Canadian boreal forest under future climate change

2009 ◽  
Vol 39 (12) ◽  
pp. 2369-2380 ◽  
Author(s):  
Héloïse Le Goff ◽  
Mike D. Flannigan ◽  
Yves Bergeron
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Fire Activity

The main objective of this paper is to evaluate whether future climate change would trigger an increase in the fire activity of the Waswanipi area, central Quebec. First, we used regression analyses to model the historical (1973–2002) link between weather conditions and fire activity. Then, we calculated Fire Weather Index system components using 1961–2100 daily weather variables from the Canadian Regional Climate Model for the A2 climate change scenario. We tested linear trends in 1961–2100 fire activity and calculated rates of change in fire activity between 1975–2005, 2030–2060, and 2070–2100. Our results suggest that the August fire risk would double (+110%) for 2100, while the May fire risk would slightly decrease (–20%), moving the fire season peak later in the season. Future climate change would trigger weather conditions more favourable to forest fires and a slight increase in regional fire activity (+7%). While considering this long-term increase, interannual variations of fire activity remain a major challenge for the development of sustainable forest management.

Fire effects on the spatial patterns of soil resources in a Nicaraguan wet tropical forest

2005 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 435-444 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brent C. Blair
Keyword(s):  
Leaf Litter ◽  
Tropical Forests ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Soil Heterogeneity ◽  
Fire Effects ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Vegetative Cover ◽  
Soil Resources ◽  
In Fire ◽  
The Impact

Anthropogenic wildfires are becoming increasingly frequent in wet tropical forests. This trend follows that of other anthropogenic disturbances, which are now acute and widespread. Fires pose a potentially serious threat to tropical forests. However, little is known about the impact of unintended forest fires on below-ground resources in these ecosystems. This study investigated the influence of fires on the distribution and variability of soil resources on two sets of 50×50-m burned and unburned plots in a Nicaraguan rain forest. Samples were collected at 5-m intervals throughout each plot as well as subsamples at 50-cm intervals. Geostatistical techniques as well as univariate statistics were used to quantify the spatial autocorrelation and variability of selected nutrients (N, P and K), carbon and standing leaf litter. Most variability in this forest was spatially dependent at a scale of 30 m or less. However the average range of autocorrelations varied greatly between properties and sites. Burning altered soil heterogeneity by decreasing the range over which soil properties were autocorrelated. Overall the average patch size (range) for nitrogen was reduced by 7%, phosphorus by 52%, potassium by 60% and carbon by 43%. While phosphorus and leaf litter increased in the burned plots compared to unburned plots, potassium was not different. Nitrogen and carbon did not display a consistent pattern between burning regimes and this may be explained by variation in fire intensity. Leaf litter measurements did not correlate with measured soil nutrients within plots. Observed changes in the burned forest were likely a result of both the intensity of burning and change in vegetative cover between the time of the fires and soil sampling.

Inter- and intra-annual profiles of fire regimes in the managed forests of Canada and implications for resource sharing

2012 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 328 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steen Magnussen ◽  
Stephen W. Taylor
Keyword(s):  
Resource Sharing ◽  
Joint Distribution ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Regional Synchrony

Year-to-year variation in fire activity in Canada constitutes a key challenge for fire management agencies. Interagency sharing of fire management resources has been ongoing on regional, national and international scales in Canada for several decades to better cope with peaks in resource demand. Inherent stressors on these schemes determined by the fire regimes in constituent jurisdictions are not well known, nor described by averages. We developed a statistical framework to examine the likelihood of regional synchrony of peaks in fire activity at a timescale of 1 week. Year-to-year variations in important fire regime variables and 48 regions in Canada are quantified by a joint distribution and profiled at the Provincial or Territorial level. The fire regime variables capture the timing of the fire season, the average number of fires, area burned, and the timing and extent of annual maxima. The onset of the fire season was strongly correlated with latitude and longitude. Regional synchrony in the timing of the maximum burned area within fire seasons delineates opportunities for and limitations to sharing of fire suppression resources during periods of stress that were quantified in Monte Carlo simulations from the joint distribution.

scholarly journals Precipitation–fire linkages in Indonesia (1997–2015)

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (18) ◽  
pp. 3995-4008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thierry Fanin ◽  
Guido R. van der Werf
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Rainfall Time Series ◽  
Fire Emissions ◽  
Active Fire

Abstract. Over the past decades, fires have burned annually in Indonesia, yet the strength of the fire season is for a large part modulated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The two most recent very strong El Niño years were 2015 and 1997. Both years involved high incidences of fire in Indonesia. At present, there is no consistent satellite data stream spanning the full 19-year record, thereby complicating a comparison between these two fire seasons. We have investigated how various fire and precipitation datasets can be merged to better compare the fire dynamics in 1997 and 2015 as well as in intermediary years. We combined nighttime active fire detections from the Along Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) World Fire Atlas (WFA) available from 1997 until 2012 and the nighttime subset of the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor from 2001 until now. For the overlapping period, MODIS detected about 4 times more fires than ATSR, but this ratio varied spatially. Although the reasons behind this spatial variability remain unclear, the coefficient of determination for the overlapping period was high (R2 = 0. 97, based on monthly data) and allowed for a consistent time series. We then constructed a rainfall time series based on the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP, 1997–2015) and the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Project (TRMM, 1998–2015). Relations between antecedent rainfall and fire activity were not uniform in Indonesia. In southern Sumatra and Kalimantan, we found that 120 days of rainfall accumulation had the highest coefficient of determination with annual fire intensity. In northern Sumatra, this period was only 30 days. Thresholds of 200 and 305 mm average rainfall accumulation before each active fire were identified to generate a high-incidence fire year in southern Sumatra and southern Kalimantan, respectively. The number of active fires detected in 1997 was 2.2 times higher than in 2015. Assuming the ratio between nighttime and total active fires did not change, the 1997 season was thus about twice as severe as the one in 2015. Although large, the difference is smaller than found in fire emission estimates from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED). Besides different rainfall amounts and patterns, the two-fold difference between 1997 and 2015 may be attributed to a weaker El Niño and neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions in the later year. The fraction of fires burning in peatlands was higher in 2015 compared to 1997 (61 and 45 %, respectively). Finally, we found that the non-linearity between rainfall and fire in Indonesia stems from longer periods without rain in extremely dry years.

scholarly journals Public Attention Reduced Forest Fires in the Brazilian Amazon

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafael Araujo ◽  
Francisco Costa ◽  
Teevrat Garg
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Environmental Issues ◽  
Brazilian Amazon ◽  
Environmental Damage ◽  
Public Attention ◽  
Environmental Disasters ◽  
Active Fire ◽  
International Pressure ◽  
Bolivian Amazon ◽  
Before And After

Abstract International frameworks and agreements to reduce anthropogenic environmental disasters rely on international pressure driving local action. Although environmental catastrophes can occasionally capture international attention, it is unclear if focused media and increased public outcry can reduce environmental damage. We study the unusual and concentrated increase in international scrutiny on forest fires in the Brazilian Amazon in August 2019. Comparing active fires in the Brazilian Amazon versus those in the Peruvian and Bolivian Amazon before and after a surge in public attention on the Brazilian Amazon, we find that increased public attention reduced fires by 22% (93,607 avoided pixel-days of active fire) avoiding 24.81 million MtCO2 in emissions. Our results highlight the power of international pressure to compel governments to act on pressing environmental issues, even in political contexts hostile to environmental priorities.

scholarly journals Limited effect of COVID-19 on the 2020 fire season in Mediterranean Europe

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Víctor Resco de Dios
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Limited Effect ◽  
Western Us ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Mediterranean Europe ◽  
In Fire ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Latin American Countries ◽  
Extreme Fire

In a recent study, Rodrigues et al. (2020) analyze the impact of COVID-19 on fire activity. During this year’s pandemic we have experienced extreme fire activity in many areas worldwide including Siberia (McCarty et al., 2020), western US (Pickrell and Pennisi, 2020), and different Latin American countries including Argentina, Bolivia or Paraguay. Interestingly, the authors argue that COVID-19 has led to a reduction in fire activity in EUMED countries (Portugal, Spain, France, Italy and Greece) because of the associated decrease in human activity.

scholarly journals OMI and MODIS observations of the anomalous 2008–2009 Southern Hemisphere biomass burning seasons

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 3505-3513 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Torres ◽  
Z. Chen ◽  
H. Jethva ◽  
C. Ahn ◽  
S. R. Freitas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
Biomass Burning ◽  
Atmospheric Aerosol ◽  
Meteorological Factor ◽  
Precipitation Anomaly ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Carbonaceous Aerosols ◽  
Precipitation Record ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
In Fire

Abstract. Significant inter-annual variability of biomass burning was observed in South America over the 2007–2009 period. The 2007 number of fires detected from space in South America, as well as the magnitude of the atmospheric aerosol load resulting from fire activity, was the largest over the last ten years. The huge 2007 increase in fire activity was followed by large reductions in the 2008 and 2009 burning seasons. Large drops of the atmospheric load of carbonaceous aerosols over the subcontinent, relative to previous years, was registered in 2008 and 2009 by the OMI sensor onboard the Aura platform, and the MODIS sensors on the Terra and Aqua satellites. The 2009 fire season in South America was the least active of the last ten years. Satellite observations of fire statistics, precipitation, and aerosol optical depth data were used to analyze the fire season over South America and Central Africa during the last ten years to understand the factors that led to the 2007 and 2009 extremes. An analysis of precipitation anomaly data shows that the largest 6-month (May–October) precipitation deficit of the last ten years in South America occurred during 2007. The same analysis indicates that in 2009, this region experienced the largest excess precipitation of the decade. Since precipitation is the most important meteorological factor controlling biomass burning activity, it can be concluded that the 2007 maximum and 2009 minimum in fire activity and aerosol load were driven by the observed levels of precipitation. Analysis of the precipitation record, however, does not explain the extremely low 2008 biomass burning activity. Although the 2008 precipitation deficit was similar in magnitude to the one that in 2005 contributed to the second most intense biomass burning season in the last ten years, the 2008 fire season was surprisingly weak. The combined analysis of satellite data on atmospheric aerosol load, fire counts and precipitation strongly suggests that the observed 2008 decline in aerosol load and fire activity in South America was heavily influenced by conditions other than meteorological factors.

scholarly journals Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yannick Le Page ◽  
Douglas Morton ◽  
Hartin Corinne ◽  
Bond-Lamberty Ben ◽  
José Miguel Cardoso Pereira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Amazon Basin ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Amazon Forest ◽  
Fire Activity

Abstract. Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, common under current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

scholarly journals Current Trend of Carbon Emissions from Wildfires in Siberia

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 559
Author(s):  
Evgenii Ponomarev ◽  
Nikita Yakimov ◽  
Tatiana Ponomareva ◽  
Oleg Yakubailik ◽  
Susan G. Conard
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Current Trend ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Fire Emissions ◽  
Active Fire ◽  
Radiative Power ◽  
Annual Carbon ◽  
Global Carbon ◽  
Fire Radiative Power

Smoke from wildfires in Siberia often affects air quality over vast territories of the Northern hemisphere during the summer. Increasing fire emissions also affect regional and global carbon balance. To estimate annual carbon emissions from wildfires in Siberia from 2002–2020, we categorized levels of fire intensity for individual active fire pixels based on fire radiative power data from the standard MODIS product (MOD14/MYD14). For the last two decades, estimated annual direct carbon emissions from wildfires varied greatly, ranging from 20–220 Tg C per year. Sporadic maxima were observed in 2003 (>150 Tg C/year), in 2012 (>220 Tg C/year), in 2019 (~180 Tg C/year). However, the 2020 fire season was extraordinary in terms of fire emissions (~350 Tg C/year). The estimated average annual level of fire emissions was 80 ± 20 Tg C/year when extreme years were excluded from the analysis. For the next decade the average level of fire emissions might increase to 250 ± 30 Tg C/year for extreme fire seasons, and to 110 ± 20 Tg C/year for moderate fire seasons. However, under the extreme IPCC RPC 8.5 scenario for Siberia, wildfire emissions might increase to 1200–1500 Tg C/year by 2050 if there were no significant changes in patterns of vegetation distribution and fuel loadings.

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