Social Preferences for Redistribution in Central Eastern Europe and in the Baltic Countries

Author(s):  
David Aristei ◽  
Cristiano Perugini

Subject Prospects for Central-Eastern Europe in 2017. Significance In the absence of robust business confidence, Central Europe and the Baltic states (CEB) will implement short-term monetary and fiscal policies to support growth; GDP growth will suffer from global market vicissitudes and rising political tensions in key trading partners inside and outside the EU. The crisis in the EU will continue to bear down on South-Eastern Europe (SEE), bringing an effective end to the policy of enlargement.


Subject Prospects for Central-Eastern Europe to end-2019. Significance After a strong cyclical upswing in 2017-18, the outlook for GDP growth in Central Europe and the Baltic states (CEB) will be shaped by several political milestones, notably Poland’s general election and Brexit, while softer economic conditions in the euro-area will test the resilience of the region’s export-dependent economies.


Subject Trump’s effect on US-European relations. Significance Staff turnover and fragmented decision-making at the highest level in the White House and State Department are leaving mounting problems in Central-Eastern Europe (CEE) to the Defense Department and NATO. Along the Eastern frontier, concerns over Russian aggression have led to competition for more US attention from the Baltic to the Black Sea. Impacts Acceptance of the ‘America First’ doctrine will indirectly authorise nationalist politics in Europe. Trump’s admiration for their methods will empower East European ‘strongmen’. Turkey will further distance itself from core principles of NATO collaboration.


The article is devoted to clarifying the problem of the end of postcommunist transformations and the essence of the further development of the ex-postcommunist countries. The avalanche collapse of the communist regimes at the turn of the 1980s and 1990s led to the beginning of postcommunist transformations. Today it can be stated that this process is over. The author argues this conclusion with the following considerations: 1) any transformational process, the essence of which is to replace one quality of society or its political system with another, cannot go on indefinitely, it must end someday; 2) the end of the transformation process is due to the establishment of a new quality; 3) the totalitarian nature of the previous communist regimes presupposes the multivariate end of postcommunist transformations. Various postcommunist countries have achieved different results during transformations. In Central-Eastern Europe, the Baltic States, and a number of countries in South-Eastern Europe, postcommunist transformations have culminated in the establishment of democracy. The transformations of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan was over the establishment of authoritarian regimes. Neo-totalitarian regimes have emerged in Belarus, Russia, and Turkmenistan. In Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Armenia, Georgia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Moldova and Ukraine, political development fluctuates between democracy and authoritarianism for a long time. The author concludes that the period of postcommunism in all these countries finally over in the middle of 2010s. The end of postcommunism marked the beginning of a new stage in the socio-political development of the ex-communist countries. Its main tendencies are revealed in this paper. The author includes in such: 1) a fall the level of democracy in Central-Eastern and South-Eastern Europe; 2) a strengthening differentiation of political development of single regions and the countries; 3) a growth of nationalism; 4) a changes in relations with the EU; 4) a strengthening Russia's interference.


Subject Prospects for Central-Eastern Europe in 2018. Significance The economic outlook for Central Europe and the Baltic states (CEB) for the first half of next year, at least, looks bright. The consumption-led rebound in GDP across CEB in the second half of 2017 will continue to drive economic performance in early 2018. For the Western Balkans, the dominant international issue will be the future of the EU, but the most significant developments will be on the domestic front as peoples and governments react to the EU’s ongoing travails.


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