Belief Systems as Causal Mechanisms in World Politics: An Overview of Operational Code Analysis

2006 ◽  
pp. 3-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen G. Walker ◽  
Mark Schafer
Keyword(s):  
Belief Systems ◽  
World Politics ◽  
Code Analysis ◽  
Operational Code ◽  
Causal Mechanisms

Operational Code Theory: Beliefs and Foreign Policy Decisions

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen G. Walker ◽  
Mark Schafer
Keyword(s):  
Game Theory ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Strategic Interaction ◽  
World Politics ◽  
Policy Decisions ◽  
Code Theory ◽  
Code Analysis ◽  
Operational Code

The process of foreign policy decision making is influenced in large part by beliefs, along with the strategic interaction between actors engendered by their decisions and the resulting political outcomes. In this context, beliefs encompass three kinds of effects: the mirroring effects associated with the decision making situation, the steering effects that arise from this situation, and the learning effects of feedback. These effects are modeled using operational code analysis, although “operational code theory” more accurately describes an alliance of attribution and schema theories from psychology and game theory from economics applied to the domain of politics. This “theory complex” specifies belief-based solutions to the puzzles posed by diagnostic, decision making, and learning processes in world politics. The major social and intellectual dimensions of operational code theory can be traced to Nathan Leites’s seminal research on the Bolshevik operational code, The Operational Code of the Politburo. In the last half of the twentieth century, applications of operational code analysis have emphasized different cognitive, emotional, and motivational mechanisms as intellectual dimensions in explaining foreign policy decisions. The literature on operational code theory may be divided into four general waves of research: idiographic-interpretive studies, nomothetic-typological studies, quantitative-statistical studies, and formal modeling studies. The present trajectory of studies on operational code points to a number of important trends that straddle political psychology and game theory. For example, the psychological processes of mirroring, steering, and learning associated with operational code analysis have the potential to enrich our understanding of game-theoretic models of strategic interaction.

scholarly journals Understanding New Middle Eastern Leadership: An Operational Code Approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 71 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Özgür Özdamar ◽  
Sercan Canbolat
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Belief Systems ◽  
Middle Eastern ◽  
Foreign Affairs ◽  
Post Cold War ◽  
Operational Code ◽  
Arab Uprisings ◽  
Study Results ◽  
The Muslim Brotherhood

Political Islam and Islamist organizations have broadly gained strength across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the post-Cold War era. Following the Arab uprisings, the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), generally viewed as the world’s largest and most influential Islamist organization, has shaped the wider landscape of MENA politics. This study examines MB leadership by comparing M. Morsi of Egypt, R. Ghannouchi of Tunisia, and K. Meshaal of Gaza as examples of Islamist leaders to explain their political belief systems and predict their foreign-policy behavior. We use the operational code approach, a content-analysis software and statistical tests to conduct the study. Results show that the three leaders’ foreign policy beliefs are analogous to the averages of world leaders. Results also partially support the hypothesis that their foreign-policy propensities are similar to each other. We conclude that despite the conventional portrayal of MB leadership, these leaders use negotiation and cooperation to settle their differences in foreign affairs, and the best way to approach them is to engage in a Rousseauvian assurance game that emphasizes international social cooperation. Results also suggest important implications in terms of mainstream international relations theories.

scholarly journals Realism, empiricism and causal inquiry in International Relations: What is at stake?

2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 562-587 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam R C Humphreys
Keyword(s):  
International Relations ◽  
Scientific Realism ◽  
Scientific Practice ◽  
World Politics ◽  
Constructive Empiricism ◽  
Van Fraassen ◽  
Scientific Realist ◽  
Bas Van Fraassen ◽  
Causal Mechanisms ◽  
Everyday World

Discussions of causal inquiry in International Relations are increasingly framed in terms of a contrast between rival philosophical positions, each with a putative methodological corollary — empiricism is associated with a search for patterns of covariation, while scientific realism is associated with a search for causal mechanisms. Scientific realism is, on this basis, claimed to open up avenues of causal inquiry that are unavailable to empiricists. This is misleading. Empiricism appears inferior only if its reformulation by contemporary philosophers of science, such as Bas van Fraassen, is ignored. I therefore develop a fuller account than has previously been provided in International Relations of Van Fraassen’s ‘constructive empiricism’ and how it differs from scientific realism. In light of that, I consider what is at stake in calls for the reconstitution of causal inquiry along scientific realist, rather than empiricist, lines. I argue that scientific realists have failed to make a compelling case that what matters is whether researchers are realists. Constructive empiricism and scientific realism differ only on narrow epistemological and metaphysical grounds that carry no clear implications for the conduct of causal inquiry. Yet, insofar as Van Fraassen has reformed empiricism to meet the scientific realist challenge, this has created a striking disjunction between mainstream practices of causal inquiry in International Relations and the vision of scientific practice that scientific realists and contemporary empiricists share, especially regarding the significance of regularities observed in everyday world politics. Although scientific realist calls for a philosophical revolution in International Relations are overstated, this disjunction demands further consideration.

Culture and Foreign Policy Analysis

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Grove
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Cold War ◽  
Policy Analysis ◽  
Theoretical Explanation ◽  
Foreign Policy Analysis ◽  
Post Cold War ◽  
Code Analysis ◽  
Operational Code ◽  
Systemic Constraints

There are several conceptions of culture which have become dominant in foreign policy analysis (FPA) in particular: culture as the organization of meaning, culture as value preferences, and culture as templates for human strategy. Prior to the 1990s, the Cold War constraints of bipolarity had left little room for idiosyncratic domestic-level variables such as culture to affect FP. However, once systemic constraints lessened and the decision making milieu became more ambiguous, scholars increasingly turned to questions about culture and identity. Using classic frameworks as a jumping off point, early work on national role conception and operational code analysis incorporated culture as a significant filter for decision making. Operational code analysis is another early approach that had elements of culture as part of the decision making context. In addition, there are a few works that investigate culture and FP with a different focus than FPA. But perhaps one of the most notable elements of FPA studies exploring culture is the idea that it need not be viewed as explaining whatever cannot be explained by anything else. Instead of merely an alternative theoretical explanation of state behavior, use of culture in the post-Cold War revival and today reflects an effort not so much to refute neorealism but to look at different questions.

scholarly journals I am the Ocean – arts and sciences to move from ocean literacy to passion for the ocean

2017 ◽  
Vol 97 (6) ◽  
pp. 1211-1213 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sam Dupont
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Science Communication ◽  
Belief Systems ◽  
Field Trips ◽  
World Politics ◽  
Global Changes ◽  
Environmental Challenges ◽  
Arts And Sciences ◽  
Ocean Literacy ◽  
Global Environmental

Recent events in world politics demonstrate that a part of society has lost faith in their institutions. The importance of facts and evidence in citizens’ decision making is weakened by opinions and belief systems. This post-fact or alternate facts era is a new challenge in the field of science communication as we urgently need to tackle global environmental challenges. Not only do scientists need to better communicate their work, they also need to explore alternative ways of transferring knowledge to help citizens reconnect with nature and actively take responsible decisions to protect it. The activity ‘I am the Ocean’ has been developed by an artist and a scientist with the goal to help students understand, connect and be equipped to take actions on marine global changes. The activity was a mix of field trips, open discussions and sensory immersion. It illustrates how art and metaphors can add an emotional and physical dimension to science communication, allowing a better understanding of otherwise invisible threats, and move from knowledge to passion.

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