Episodic Change Analysis of the Annual Flood Peak Time Series for a Flood Insurance Study

2013 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-91 ◽  
Author(s):  
Momcilo Markus ◽  
H. Vernon Knapp ◽  
Amanda Flegel ◽  
Sally McConkey ◽  
Wilbert O. Thomas
Author(s):  
Thu Trang Lê ◽  
Abdourrahmane M. Atto ◽  
Emmanuel Trouvé ◽  
Akhmad Solikhin ◽  
Virginie Pinel

Abstract Karst basins are prone to rapid flooding because of their geomorphic complexity and exposed karst landforms with low infiltration rates. Accordingly, simulating and forecasting floods in karst regions can provide important technical support for local flood control. The study area, the Liujiang karst river basin, is the most well-developed karst area in South China, and its many mountainous areas lack rainfall gauges, limiting the availability of precipitation information. Quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) from the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) and quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) from remote sensing information by an artificial neural network cloud classification system (PERSIANN-CCS) can offer reliable precipitation estimates. Here, the distributed Karst-Liuxihe (KL) model was successfully developed from the terrestrial Liuxihe model, as reflected in improvements to its underground structure and confluence algorithm. Compared with other karst distributed models, the KL model has a relatively simple structure and small modeling data requirements, which are advantageous for flood prediction in karst areas lacking hydrogeological data. Our flood process simulation results suggested that the KL model agrees well with observations and outperforms the Liuxihe model. The average Nash coefficient, correlation coefficient, and water balance coefficient increased by 0.24, 0.19, and 0.20, respectively, and the average flood process error, flood peak error, and peak time error decreased by 13%, 11%, and 2 hours, respectively. Coupling the WRF model and PERSIANN-CCS with the KL model yielded a good performance in karst flood simulation and prediction. Notably, coupling the WRF and KL models effectively predicted the karst flood processes and provided flood prediction results with a lead time of 96 hours, which is important for flood warning and control.


2015 ◽  
Vol 146 ◽  
pp. 337-346 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carmela Cappelli ◽  
Pierpaolo D'Urso ◽  
Francesca Di Iorio

Author(s):  
K. Anders ◽  
L. Winiwarter ◽  
H. Mara ◽  
R. C. Lindenbergh ◽  
S. E. Vos ◽  
...  

Abstract. Near-continuously acquired terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) data contains valuable information on natural surface dynamics. An important step in geographic analyses is to detect different types of changes that can be observed in a scene. For this, spatiotemporal segmentation is a time series-based method of surface change analysis that removes the need to select analysis periods, providing so-called 4D objects-by-change (4D-OBCs). This involves higher computational effort than pairwise change detection, and efforts scale with (i) the temporal density of input data and (ii) the (variable) spatial extent of delineated changes. These two factors determine the cost and number of Dynamic Time Warping distance calculations to be performed for deriving the metric of time series similarity. We investigate how a reduction of the spatial and temporal resolution of input data influences the delineation of twelve erosion and accumulation forms, using an hourly five-month TLS time series of a sandy beach. We compare the spatial extent of 4D-OBCs obtained at reduced spatial (1.0 m to 15.0 m with 0.5 m steps) and temporal (2 h to 96 h with 2 h steps) resolution to the result from highest-resolution data. Many change delineations achieve acceptable performance with ranges of ±10 % to ±100 % in delineated object area, depending on the spatial extent of the respective change form. We suggest a locally adaptive approach to identify poor performance at certain resolution levels for the integration in a hierarchical approach. Consequently, the spatial delineation could be performed at high accuracy for specific target changes in a second iteration. This will allow more efficient 3D change analysis towards near-realtime, online TLS-based observation of natural surface changes.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 197
Author(s):  
Debbie Chamberlain ◽  
Stuart Phinn ◽  
Hugh Possingham

Great Barrier Reef catchments are under pressure from the effects of climate change, landscape modifications, and hydrology alterations. With the use of remote sensing datasets covering large areas, conventional methods of change detection can expose broad transitions, whereas workflows that excerpt data for time-series trends divulge more subtle transformations of land cover modification. Here, we combine both these approaches to investigate change and trends in a large estuarine region of Central Queensland, Australia, that encompasses a national park and is adjacent to the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage site. Nine information classes were compiled in a maximum likelihood post classification change analysis in 2004–2017. Mangroves decreased (1146 hectares), as was the case with estuarine wetland (1495 hectares), and saltmarsh grass (1546 hectares). The overall classification accuracies and Kappa coefficient for 2004, 2006, 2009, 2013, 2015, and 2017 land cover maps were 85%, 88%, 88%, 89%, 81%, and 92%, respectively. The cumulative area of open forest, estuarine wetland, and saltmarsh grass (1628 hectares) was converted to pasture in a thematic change analysis showing the “from–to” change. We generated linear regression relationships to examine trends in pixel values across the time series. Our findings from a trend analysis showed a decreasing trend (p value range = 0.001–0.099) in the vegetation extent of open forest, fringing mangroves, estuarine wetlands, saltmarsh grass, and grazing areas, but this was inconsistent across the study site. Similar to reports from tropical regions elsewhere, saltmarsh grass is poorly represented in the national park. A severe tropical cyclone preceding the capture of the 2017 Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) image was likely the main driver for reduced areas of shoreline and stream vegetation. Our research contributes to the body of knowledge on coastal ecosystem dynamics to enable planning to achieve more effective conservation outcomes.


2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (19) ◽  
pp. 5325-5331 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Toreti ◽  
Franz G. Kuglitsch ◽  
Elena Xoplaki ◽  
Jürg Luterbacher ◽  
Heinz Wanner

Abstract Instrumental daily series of temperature are often affected by inhomogeneities. Several methods are available for their correction at monthly and annual scales, whereas few exist for daily data. Here, an improved version of the higher-order moments (HOM) method, the higher-order moments for autocorrelated data (HOMAD), is proposed. HOMAD addresses the main weaknesses of HOM, namely, data autocorrelation and the subjective choice of regression parameters. Simulated series are used for the comparison of both methodologies. The results highlight and reveal that HOMAD outperforms HOM for small samples. Additionally, three daily temperature time series from stations in the eastern Mediterranean are used to show the impact of homogenization procedures on trend estimation and the assessment of extremes. HOMAD provides an improved correction of daily temperature time series and further supports the use of corrected daily temperature time series prior to climate change assessment.


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