Water Resources Policy Development Using Hydrologic and Systems Dynamics Modeling: A Case Study for East Africa

In their paper “Combining Systems Dynamics and Ethics: Towards More Science?” Erik Pruyt and Jan Kwakkel argue that ethics ought to play a larger role in systems dynamics and vice versa (2007). Including ethics, they contend, will add sensitivity to current systems models as well as provide guidance on how to achieve best outcomes; with respect to both efficiency and flourishing (Pruyt & Kwakkel, 2007). At first blush, such a cross pollination promises to add much needed depth of analysis to systems modeling and a higher degree of precision in ethical analyses. Not surprisingly, however, achieving such outcomes is more complex than it initially appears. Indeed, the quest for additional precision in ethical analysis is not a new one to philosophers and ethicists. The problem remains, in many ways, intractable. In Part I of this paper, the authors expand on Pruyt and Kwakkel’s thesis by examining specific insights and tools that can and should be incorporated into systems dynamics modeling. Emphasis will be placed on the mechanics of this inclusion and the resultant implications. Part II, then, focuses on how systems dynamics tools like causal loop modeling and behavior-over-time graphs can be incorporated into ethical analyses in a non-arbitrary manner. Finally, in Part III of the paper, the authors briefly discuss the ramifications of Parts I and II for engineering education; both among students and practicing engineers. The authors argue that both directions of the cross pollination have merit (especially the inclusion of ethical considerations in systems dynamics modeling) and ought to be developed further.

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Economic and Environmental Impacts of Cropping Pattern Elements Using Systems Dynamics

Civil Engineering Journal ◽

10.28991/cej-2019-03091308 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 5 (5) ◽

pp. 1020-1032 ◽

Cited By ~ 16

Author(s):

Masoumeh Hashemi ◽

Hamed Mazandarani Zadeh ◽

Peyman Daneshkare Arasteh ◽

Mehdi Zarghami

Keyword(s):

Water Resources ◽

System Dynamics ◽

Agricultural Sector ◽

Extreme Condition ◽

Groundwater Depletion ◽

Systems Dynamics ◽

Cropping Pattern ◽

Agricultural Water Management ◽

Cropping Patterns

Tragedies arising from poor water resources management and planning are significantly more relevant than climate change and frequent natural droughts, especially in arid and semi-arid areas. Nearly 92% of total water is allocated to the agricultural sector in Iran. In this situation, cultivation patterns play an important role in agricultural water management. Evaluating the effect of each crop would help the stakeholders make a rational decision in choosing appropriate cropping patterns to avoid groundwater depletion as well as maintain their livelihoods. The Qazvin plain in Iran, whose aquifer has had a drawdown of nearly 20m during the last 15 years, was used in this case study. It has been modeled using system dynamics, which includes two subsystems: hydrology, for calculating groundwater level, and economy, for defining farmer’s income in the years from 1997 to 2011. The system dynamics, which included 17 crops, was developed after calibration by simple genetic algorithm and verification under extreme condition tests. To identify the economic and environmental effect of each of the crops, the system dynamics was run 18 times, removing crops one by one. It has been found that wheat plays an important role in causing a negative water balance but does not affect the farmers’ incomes as significantly as grapes. Two indicators, which included sustainable water resources and water exploitation, were employed to assess the scenarios as well. According to the results, no scenarios are fully sustainable for maintaining a steady aquifer, but scenario 1, which removed wheat from the cropping pattern, is the most sustainable and puts the least pressure on the aquifer.

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