Potential Traffic Conflict Prediction Model Considering Interaction of Conflict Spots at an Unsignalized Intersection

CICTP 2017 ◽  
2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Wang
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Traffic Conflict ◽  
Conflict Prediction

scholarly journals Study on Traffic Conflict Prediction Model of Closed Lanes on the Outside of Expressway

Symmetry ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 926
Author(s):  
Huimin Ge ◽  
Mingyue Huang ◽  
Ying Lu ◽  
Yousen Yang
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Traffic Accidents ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Vehicle Speed ◽  
Time To Collision ◽  
Traffic Characteristics ◽  
Traffic Conflicts ◽  
Traffic Conflict ◽  
Conflict Prediction

Due to the randomness and weak symmetry of traffic accidents occurring in the expressway maintenance operation area, it is difficult to use the number of traffic accidents to evaluate the safety of maintenance operation areas. In this paper, the traffic characteristics and traffic conflicts of the maintenance operation area with the lane closed on the outside of the two-way four-lane expressway are studied. By using the statistical method, the distribution of vehicle speed and time headway in different areas of the maintenance operation area are analyzed, and the queuing characteristics of vehicles in the upstream transition zone of the expressway are determined. Based on improved time to collision (TTC) model, the traffic conflict severity of expressway maintenance operation area is divided. The negative binomial distribution is used to establish a traffic conflict prediction model for the enclosed maintenance area of the outer lane of the expressway, and the validity of the traffic conflict prediction model is verified based on the average absolute error percentage (MAPE). The research results show that: when the 0 < TTC < 1.3 s, the traffic conflict is serious conflict; when 1.3 s < TTC, the traffic conflict is non-serious conflict. Furthermore, the traffic conflict prediction model has high accuracy, the MAPE of the warning area and the upstream transition area are 10.8% and 5.0%, respectively.

Validation and Improvement of a Rear-End Conflict Prediction Model

2004 ◽  
Vol 1897 (1) ◽  
pp. 206-210
Author(s):  
Nedal T. Ratrout ◽  
Khalaf A. Al-Ofi ◽  
Shoukat Lyaz
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Conflict Prediction

scholarly journals Safety Performance Evaluation of a Three-Leg Unsignalized Intersection Using Traffic Conflict Analysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guoqiang Zhang ◽  
Jun Chen ◽  
Jingya Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Video Camera ◽  
Conflict Analysis ◽  
Safety Performance ◽  
Time To Collision ◽  
Time Headway ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Minor Road ◽  
Traffic Conflicts ◽  
Traffic Conflict

Traffic conflicts were used to evaluate safety performance of a three-leg unsignalized intersection. With the aid of a video camera, data were collected at the intersection and 15-second time span was used in each observation to overcome the drawbacks of traditional methods of traffic conflict analysis. Time to collision (TTC), a widely accepted indicator, was used to identify whether an interaction between two vehicles was a traffic conflict. By using Poisson regression, a prediction model for traffic conflicts at the intersection was developed. Based upon the model, assuming that other factors remain constant, when time headway or speed of eastbound traffic on major road, which is crossed by left-turning traffic from minor road, increases, the number of traffic conflicts at the intersection decreases. When volume of left-turning traffic on minor road or speed of left-turning vehicles on minor road increases, the number of traffic conflicts at the intersection increases if other factors remain constant. Explanations for the influence of the factors, which were represented by independent variables of the prediction model, were then analyzed in detail.

scholarly journals Conflict Prediction Model in a Dynamic State

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. O. Omwenga ◽  
◽  
C. B. Singh ◽  
M. M. Manene ◽  
G. P. Pokhariyal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Dynamic State ◽  
Conflict Prediction

scholarly journals Validating a Traffic Conflict Prediction Technique for Motorways Using a Simulation Approach

Sensors ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 566
Author(s):  
Nicolette Formosa ◽  
Mohammed Quddus ◽  
Alkis Papadoulis ◽  
Andrew Timmis
Keyword(s):  
Autonomous Vehicles ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Ground Truth ◽  
Prediction Algorithm ◽  
Lane Change ◽  
Prediction Ability ◽  
Integrated Simulation ◽  
Traffic Conflict ◽  
Conflict Prediction

With the ever-increasing advancements in the technology of driver assistant systems, there is a need for a comprehensive way to identify traffic conflicts to avoid collisions. Although significant research efforts have been devoted to traffic conflict techniques applied for junctions, there is dearth of research on these methods for motorways. This paper presents the validation of a traffic conflict prediction algorithm applied to a motorway scenario in a simulated environment. An automatic video analysis system was developed to identify lane change and rear-end conflicts as ground truth. Using these conflicts, the prediction ability of the traffic conflict technique was validated in an integrated simulation framework. This framework consisted of a sub-microscopic simulator, which provided an appropriate testbed to accurately simulate the components of an intelligent vehicle, and a microscopic traffic simulator able to generate the surrounding traffic. Results from this framework show that for a 10% false alarm rate, approximately 80% and 73% of rear-end and lane change conflicts were accurately predicted, respectively. Despite the fact that the algorithm was not trained using the virtual data, the sensitivity was high. This highlights the transferability of the algorithm to similar road networks, providing a benchmark for the identification of traffic conflict and a relevant step for developing safety management strategies for autonomous vehicles.

scholarly journals Modelling Collision Potentials in Port Anchorages: Application of the Navigational Traffic Conflict Technique (NTCT)

2015 ◽  
Vol 69 (1) ◽  
pp. 183-196 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashim Kumar Debnath ◽  
Hoong Chor Chin
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Close Agreement ◽  
Research Effort ◽  
Measurement Model ◽  
Confined Water ◽  
Potential Measurement ◽  
Movement Data ◽  
Traffic Conflict

Despite the extent of works done on modelling port water collisions, not much research effort has been devoted to modelling collisions at port anchorages. This paper aims to fill this important gap in the literature by applying the Navigation Traffic Conflict Technique (NTCT) to measuring the collision potentials in anchorages and for examining the factors contributing to collisions. Building on the principles of the NTCT, a collision potential measurement model and a collision potential prediction model were developed. These models were illustrated by using vessel movement data of the anchorages in Singapore port waters. Results showed that the measured collision potentials are in close agreement with those perceived by harbour pilots. Higher collision potentials were found in anchorages attached to the shoreline and international fairways, but not at those attached to confined water. Higher operating speeds, larger numbers of isolated danger marks and day conditions were associated with reduction in the collision potentials.

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