Validating a Traffic Conflict Prediction Technique for Motorways Using a Simulation Approach

With the ever-increasing advancements in the technology of driver assistant systems, there is a need for a comprehensive way to identify traffic conflicts to avoid collisions. Although significant research efforts have been devoted to traffic conflict techniques applied for junctions, there is dearth of research on these methods for motorways. This paper presents the validation of a traffic conflict prediction algorithm applied to a motorway scenario in a simulated environment. An automatic video analysis system was developed to identify lane change and rear-end conflicts as ground truth. Using these conflicts, the prediction ability of the traffic conflict technique was validated in an integrated simulation framework. This framework consisted of a sub-microscopic simulator, which provided an appropriate testbed to accurately simulate the components of an intelligent vehicle, and a microscopic traffic simulator able to generate the surrounding traffic. Results from this framework show that for a 10% false alarm rate, approximately 80% and 73% of rear-end and lane change conflicts were accurately predicted, respectively. Despite the fact that the algorithm was not trained using the virtual data, the sensitivity was high. This highlights the transferability of the algorithm to similar road networks, providing a benchmark for the identification of traffic conflict and a relevant step for developing safety management strategies for autonomous vehicles.

Real-Time Vehicle Trajectory Prediction for Traffic Conflict Detection at Unsignalized Intersections

Real-time prediction of vehicle trajectory at unsignalized intersections is important for real-time traffic conflict detection and early warning to improve traffic safety at unsignalized intersections. In this study, we propose a robust real-time prediction method for turning movements and vehicle trajectories using deep neural networks. Firstly, a vision-based vehicle trajectory extraction system is developed to collect vehicle trajectories and their left-turn, go straight, and right-turn labels to train turning recognition models and multilayer LSTM deep neural networks for the prediction task. Then, when performing vehicle trajectory prediction, we propose the vehicle heading angle change trend method to recognize the future move of the target vehicle to turn left, go straight, and turn right based on the trajectory data characteristics of the target vehicle before passing the stop line. Finally, we use the trained multilayer LSTM models of turning left, going straight, and turning right to predict the trajectory of the target vehicle through the intersection. Based on the TensorFlow-GPU platform, we use Yolov5-DeepSort to automatically extract vehicle trajectory data at unsignalized intersections. The experimental results show that the proposed method performs well and has a good performance in both speed and accuracy evaluation.

An Automatic Conflict Detection Framework for Urban Intersections Based on an Improved Time Difference to Collision Indicator

Urban road intersections are one of the key components of road networks. Due to complex and diverse traffic conditions, traffic conflicts occur frequently. Accurate traffic conflict detection allows improvement of the traffic conditions and decreases the probability of traffic accidents. Many time-based conflict indicators have been widely studied, but the sizes of the vehicles are ignored. This is a very important factor for conflict detection at urban intersections. Therefore, in this paper we propose a novel time difference conflict indicator by incorporating vehicle sizes instead of viewing vehicles as particles. Specially, we designed an automatic conflict recognition framework between vehicles at the urban intersections. The vehicle sizes are automatically extracted with the sparse recurrent convolutional neural network, and the vehicle trajectories are obtained with a fast-tracking algorithm based on the intersection-to-union ratio. Given tracking vehicles, we improved the time difference to the conflict metric by incorporating vehicle size information. We have conducted extensive experiments and demonstrated that the proposed framework can effectively recognize vehicle conflict accurately.

Kinetic and Kinematic Features of Pedestrian Avoidance Behavior in Motor Vehicle Conflicts

The active behaviors of pedestrians, such as avoidance motions, affect the resultant injury risk in vehicle–pedestrian collisions. However, the biomechanical features of these behaviors remain unquantified, leading to a gap in the development of biofidelic research tools and tailored protection for pedestrians in real-world traffic scenarios. In this study, we prompted subjects (“pedestrians”) to exhibit natural avoidance behaviors in well-controlled near-real traffic conflict scenarios using a previously developed virtual reality (VR)-based experimental platform. We quantified the pedestrian–vehicle interaction processes in the pre-crash phase and extracted the pedestrian postures immediately before collision with the vehicle; these were termed the “pre-crash postures.” We recorded the kinetic and kinematic features of the pedestrian avoidance responses—including the relative locations of the vehicle and pedestrian, pedestrian movement velocity and acceleration, pedestrian posture parameters (joint positions and angles), and pedestrian muscle activation levels—using a motion capture system and physiological signal system. The velocities in the avoidance behaviors were significantly different from those in a normal gait (p < 0.01). Based on the extracted natural reaction features of the pedestrians, this study provides data to support the analysis of pedestrian injury risk, development of biofidelic human body models (HBM), and design of advanced on-vehicle active safety systems.

A Safety Evaluation Model of Intersections under Mixed Traffic Conditions Using Traffic Conflicts and Cloud Model

Safety evaluation of traffic conflict is a very important and challenging issue in evaluating intersection safety under incomplete traffic accident data conditions and is also one of the main safety surrogate measures of analyzing accident data recently. It helps to analyze and solve intersection problems comprehensively and deeply. From there, it helps to improve traffic safety as well as reduce the risk of traffic accidents at intersections. Various evaluation methods based on traffic conflict have been proposed to make conflict safety levels at intersections more consistent and objective. However, a major concern is that many existing measurements are still subjective and are not easy to obtain uniformly. This study aimed to develop a model for safety evaluation at intersections in a comprehensive way that may be expected to directly link to the severity of the accident from different evaluation indicators. First, the three factors, including time to collision (TTC), conflicting speed (CS), and deceleration rate (DR) to avoid a crash, are introduced into safety evaluation of conflicts as the indicators. And then, as regards the fuzziness and randomness of the evaluation indicators, the qualitative concept has to be converted into a quantitative one utilizing cloud model, which implements the natural transformation between the qualitative concept of the safety level of traffic conflict and the membership degree of the evaluation indicators corresponding to the different safety levels. Finally, an indicator weight model is built based on the information entropy and the AHP method to determine the safety level. We illustrate the practical implementation of the proposed method using actual data of a typical signalized intersection from Hanoi City of Vietnam. The results indicate that traffic conflict analyzed by the proposed method was appropriate with actual state of the intersection, and the proposed method is simple, effective, and feasible, so it has a certain application value.

Intersection Safety Assessment Using Video-Based Traffic Conflict Analysis: The Case Study of Thailand

In the road transport network, intersections are among the most critical locations leading to a risk of death and serious injury. The traditional methods to assess the safety of intersections are based on statistical analyses that require crash data. However, such data may be under-reported and omit important crash-related factors. The conventional approaches, therefore, are not easily applied to making comparisons of intersection designs under different road classifications. This study developed a risk-based approach that incorporates video-based traffic conflict analysis to investigate vehicle conflicts under mixed traffic conditions including motorcycles and cars in Thailand. The study applied such conflict data to assess the risk of intersections in terms of time-to-collision and conflict speed. Five functional classes of intersections were investigated, including local-road/local-road, local-road/collector, collector/arterial, collector/collector, and arterial/arterial intersections. The results showed that intersection classes, characteristics, and control affect the behavior of motorists and the safety of intersections. The results found that the low-order intersections with stop/no control are high risks due to the short time-to-collision of motorcycle-related conflicts. They generate frequent conflicts with low chance of injury. The high-order intersections with signal control are high risks due to high conflicting speeds of motorcycle–car conflicts. They generate few conflicts but at a high chance of injury. The study presents the applicability of video-based traffic conflict analysis for systematically estimating the crash risk of intersections. The risk-based approach can be deemed as a supplement indicator in addition to limited crash data to evaluate the safety of intersections. However, future research is needed to explore the potential of other road infrastructure under different circumstances.

Zero Traffic Conflict (ZTC) Road Networks with Concentric Traffic Paths

U-turns and left turns are sometimes forbidden even though it increases travel distances. The greater travel distances are sometimes outweighed by the improved movement through intersections due to there being fewer conflicting lanes of traffic. One can, further, forbid straight-throughs. Restricting a sufficient number of turns can make intersections free from crossing lanes of traffic (``zero traffic conflict,'' ``ZTC"), though there may still be merging lanes of traffic. It's possible to make \begin{it}all\end{it} intersections in a road \begin{it}network\end{it} ZTC. However, keeping all destinations accessible and travel distances moderate requires careful selection of allowed driving directions and turning directions. We demonstrate through numerical microscopic and macroscopic simulations that there are road networks and ranges of traffic loads for which, in comparison with conventional schemes, ZTC road network can carry approximately $50$\% more vehicular traffic without incurring gridlock.