scholarly journals Uncertainty in long-run forecasts of quantities such as per capita gross domestic product

2018 ◽  
Vol 115 (21) ◽  
pp. 5314-5316 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Granger Morgan
Circulation ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 129 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajesh Vedanthan ◽  
Mondira Ray ◽  
Valentin Fuster ◽  
Ellen Magenheim

Introduction: Hypertension is the leading global risk for mortality and its prevalence is increasing in many low- and middle-income countries. Hypertension treatment rates are low worldwide, potentially in part due to insufficient human resources. However, the relationship between health worker density and hypertension treatment rates is unknown. Objective: To conduct an econometric analysis of the relationship between health worker density and hypertension treatment rates worldwide. Methods: Hypertension treatment rates were collected from published reports between 1980 and 2010. Data on health worker (physician and nurse) density were obtained from the World Health Organization (WHO). Data for potential confounding variables--per capita gross domestic product, hospital bed density, burden of infectious diseases, land area and urban population--were obtained from WHO and World Bank databases. Potential interaction by per capita gross domestic product was evaluated. Multivariable logistic-logarithmic regression analysis was performed using Stata. Results: Full data were available from 146 countries spanning all World Bank income classification categories. Health worker density was significantly associated with hypertension treatment rate in the unadjusted model (beta = 0.23; p < 0.005). In the fully adjusted model, the association remained positive but was not statistically significant (beta = 0.30; p = 0.078) (Figure). Hypertension treatment rates were more strongly related to physician than nurse density (beta = 0.21 vs 0.08; p = 0.10 vs 0.49). Conclusion: Hypertension treatment rates across the world appear to be related to health worker density, although the relationship does not achieve strict statistical significance. Our results suggest that a 10% increase in health worker density is associated with a 2-3% increase in hypertension treatment rate. Given the global burden of hypertension and other chronic diseases, WHO guidelines for health workforce staffing may need to be reconsidered.


2021 ◽  
pp. 139156142110390
Author(s):  
Fahmida Khatun ◽  
Syed Yusuf Saadat

Inequality in the distribution of income can be beneficial or detrimental for economic growth depending on the level of inequality. This study advocates that when income inequality is low, increase in income inequality increases economic growth, whereas when income inequality is high, increase in income inequality decreases economic growth. The level of inequality that maximizes economic growth is defined as the optimum level of income inequality. This article attempts to determine the optimum level of income inequality for South Asia through an econometric analysis. It uses panel data from Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, over a 34-year period to undertake a systematic investigation using panel instrumental variables techniques. The results of this study confirm that an optimum level of income inequality does exist, and occurs at a Gini coefficient value of 0.4492. Thus, this research empirically confirms that the relationship between income inequality and economic growth is non-linear. Further calculations show that for an economy that is at the optimum level of income inequality, the per capita gross domestic product can be expected to double within approximately 13 years, provided all other factors are held constant. However, a change in the Gini coefficient by 0.10 units in either direction—higher or lower—away from the optimum level, can increase the number of years for the per capita gross domestic product to double by 55 to 57 years, depending on the method of approximation. JEL: D31, D63, O15, O40


2003 ◽  
Vol 92 (2) ◽  
pp. 426-426 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Lester

Individualism ratings for 27 nations were not associated with suicide or homicide rates after controls for per capita gross domestic product.


2020 ◽  
pp. 103530462097083
Author(s):  
Chung-Khain Wye ◽  
Elya Nabila Abdul Bahri

Under what circumstances can minimum wages increase without adverse effects on employment levels? In 31 Chinese provinces between 2004 and 2015, the employment effect of a minimum wage depended on the minimum wage level, foreign direct investment, per capita gross domestic product and labour productivity. A minimum wage increase reduced hiring as foreign direct investment inflow rose, regardless of the amount of investment. Any positive employment effect of a minimum wage increase was mitigated by per capita gross domestic product growth, except when per capita gross domestic product was above the average. Above-average labour productivity enhancement significantly mitigated the adverse employment effect of the minimum wage. Employers responded to a rising minimum wage by increasing hiring when the geometric growth rates of the minimum wage and foreign direct investment for a particular province within a period of time were above the overall average across provinces. However, they scrutinised both annual and overall economic growth within a time period when making hiring decisions in the face of minimum wage adjustments. An inverted U-shape relationship between minimum wages and employment suggest a maximum threshold value for the minimum wage. Thus, government policy measures should foster short-term and long-term economic growth, to facilitate employment creation when minimum wages increase. JEL Codes: J38, J21, F16, O40


2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 127
Author(s):  
Fong Kean Yan ◽  
Yap Lya Keng ◽  
Kwek Kien Teng

The main objective of this research is to investigate the relationship between house price with macroeconomics variables - Gross Domestic Product per capita, inflation rate, Base Lending Rate and amount of household loan disbursed for purchase of residential properties. We try to use these variables to examine if they could trigger a housing bubble to burst in Malaysia. Granger Causality results show that there is univariate relationship from house price to Gross Domestic Product per capita. Though house price and other macroeconomics variables do not Granger–cause each other in short run, but these variables are cointegrated in the long run, i.e. there is no evidence of house price bubble in Malaysia. We suggest that soaring house prices in Malaysia is being supported by the large inflow of foreign funds into the housing sector and the unresponsive supply of houses.


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