homicide rates
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2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Briggs Depew ◽  
Isaac Swensen

Abstract The 1911 NY State Sullivan Act (SA) outlawed carrying concealable firearms without a licence, established strict licencing rules, and regulated the sale and possession of handguns. We analyse the effects of the SA using historical data on mortality rates, pistol permits, and citations for illegal carrying. Our analysis of pistol permits and citations reveal clear initial effects of the SA on gun-related behaviours. Using synthetic control and difference-in-differences methodologies, our main analyses show no effects on overall homicide rates, evidence of a reduction in overall suicide rates, and strong evidence of a large and sustained decrease in gun-related suicide rates.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nádia Cristina Pinheiro Rodrigues ◽  
Valéria Teresa Saraiva Lino ◽  
Leonardo Soares Bastos ◽  
Gisele O'Dwyer ◽  
Denise Leite Maia Monteiro ◽  
...  

Purpose This study aims to improve our understanding of violence, focusing on the analysis of the relation between socioeconomic factors and homicide rates from 2005 to 2019 in Brazilian capitals. Design/methodology/approach Multilevel Poisson models were used to estimate the homicide risk in men and women. The response variable was the homicide rate. Fixed effects were estimated for age group, year and gross domestic product (GDP). Findings The average homicide rate over the 2005–2019 period was 5.83/100,000 and 83.72/100,000 for women and men, respectively. In both sexes, the homicide rates increased over the period. The highest mortality rates were observed in North and Northeastern capitals. The peak homicide rates were 2010–2014, the risk of homicide decreased as age increased, and the capitals with GDP lower than US$5,000 showed a greater homicide rate. Originality/value Brazil remains among the countries with the highest risk of homicide, especially in the north and northeast regions, where socioeconomic conditions are more unfavorable. The improvement of socioeconomic conditions may contribute to changing this situation.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfredo Behrens ◽  
Kaizô Beltrão ◽  
Agostinho Leite d'Almeida

Background: Homicides are the leading cause of death among young males. Conventional approaches to interpreting variations in criminality over time and across countries have failed to explain it.Methods: We applied ordinary least squared regressions on yearly homicide rates to identify the planetary drivers for homicides in Germany, the UK, and the USA over the past three solar cycles (22 to 24) between 1987 and 2018. We used the number of sunspots (solar activity), Kp and Ap indices (geomagnetic activity) from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the German Research Centre for Geosciences DFZ-Potsdam, and weather variables from the countries’ meteorological organizations. Results: Our study revealed that lagged Kp NOAA index as a parameter of solar-driven geomagnetic disturbances (GMD) was the most important predictor to explain homicide rates in all three countries. Our results showed that over half the variance in homicide rates of all three countries could be attributed to GMD, not so by weather variables. We also predicted homicide rates peaking for 2025 and 2026 during the current 25th solar cycle, suggesting the current solar cycle could prove to be one of the most intense in a century, which would signal a concomitant increase in homicide rates. Based on the Italian experience in curbing homicides, we also suggest that collective agency may break what appears to be a deadly association between GMD and homicides.Conclusions: Our study suggests GMD may be involved in shaping human behavior and may help public and medical authorities prepare for eventual surges in homicides as the 25th solar cycle may induce stronger GMD.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ariana N Gobaud ◽  
Christina A. Mehranbod ◽  
Beidi Dong ◽  
James Dodington ◽  
Christopher N. Morrison

Abstract Background: Homicide is a major cause of death and a determinant of health disparities in the United States. This burden overwhelmingly affects people from racial and ethnic minority populations as homicide occurs more often in neighborhoods with high proportions of racial and ethnic minority residents. Research has identified that social and physical environmental conditions contribute to variation in homicide rates between neighborhoods; however, it is not clear why some neighborhoods with high concentrations of racial and ethnic minority residents have high homicide rates while neighborhoods with similar demographic compositions do not. The aim of this study was to assess whether relative socioeconomic disadvantage, (i.e., income inequality), or absolute socioeconomic disadvantage (i.e., income) measured at the ZIP code- and state-levels, is associated with high homicide rates in US neighborhoods, independent of racial and ethnic composition.Methods: This ecological case-control study compared median household income and income inequality in 250 ZIP codes with the highest homicide rate in 2017 (cases) to 250 ZIP codes that did not experience any homicide deaths in 2017 (controls). Cases were matched to controls 1:1 based on demographic composition. Variables were measured at both the ZIP code- and state-levels.Results: Lower median household income at the ZIP code-level contributed most substantially to the homicide rate. Income inequality at the state-level, however, was additionally significant when controlling for both ZIP code- and state-level factors.Conclusions: Area-based interventions that improve absolute measures of neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage may reduce gaps in homicide rates.


2021 ◽  
pp. 108876792110544
Author(s):  
Richard Rosenfeld ◽  
Randolph Roth ◽  
Joel Wallman

Recent cross-sectional research has disclosed a positive relationship between opioid-related death rates and homicide rates. The current study adds a longitudinal dimension to this research. We estimate fixed effects panel models of the temporal relationship between race-specific homicide rates and opioid-related death rates within U.S. counties and county clusters between 1999 and 2015. The results reveal a positive association between change over time in homicide and opioid-related deaths, net of multiple socioeconomic and demographic controls, in both the Non-Hispanic White and Black population. The association is stronger in the Appalachian counties, where the opioid epidemic has been particularly severe.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. I. M. Dunbar

In hunter-gatherer societies, social friction can be alleviated by families moving between bands. However, the transition to a settled village lifestyle (usually associated with the adoption of agriculture) removes this possibility. Living in large communities necessitates the development of behavioral mechanisms for defusing these stresses. I use data on the proportion of deaths that are due to violence in contemporary small-scale societies to show that these stresses increase linearly with living-group size in hunter-gatherers, but not in horticulturalists living in permanent settlements, where instead there appear to be a series of ‘glass ceilings’ below which homicide rates oscillate. These glass ceilings correlate with the adoption of behavioral mechanisms that allow social friction to be managed. These results suggest that the transition to a settled lifestyle may be more challenging than previously assumed and that the increases in settlement size that followed the first villages necessitated what amounts to a series of structural rearrangements so as to manage inter-individual discord.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-45
Author(s):  
Christoph Koenig ◽  
David Schindler

Abstract Do firearm purchase delay laws reduce aggregate homicide levels? Using variation from a 6-month countrywide gun demand shock in 2012/2013, we show that U.S. states with legislation preventing immediate handgun purchases experienced smaller increases in handgun sales. Our findings indicate that this is likely driven by comparatively lower purchases among impulsive consumers. We then demonstrate that states with purchase delays also witnessed comparatively 2% lower homicide rates during the same period. Further evidence shows that lower handgun sales coincided primarily with fewer impulsive assaults and points towards reduced acts of domestic violence.


2021 ◽  
pp. 073401682110390
Author(s):  
Talita Egevardt de Castro ◽  
Marcelo Justus ◽  
Ana Lúcia Kassouf

The current study evaluates the impact of the National Public Security with Citizenship Program (PRONASCI) on the homicide rate in Brazilian municipalities. PRONASCI program was implemented in Brazilian metropolitan regions and urban territories with high violent crime rates in 2007. In this study, we have applied a spatial difference-in-differences model with matching approaches. Municipalities that did not receive funds from the program made up the control group. We found that the program was inefficient to reduce the homicide rate in all of the municipalities that had received funds from it, compared to those that had not, even considering their potential spatial spillover effects. This result was expected due to the program complexity, in particular due to its ineffective management and the resistance from municipalities to change with the program.


2021 ◽  
pp. 001391652110450
Author(s):  
Jonnell C. Sanciangco ◽  
Gregory D. Breetzke ◽  
Zihan Lin ◽  
Yuhao Wang ◽  
Kimberly A. Clevenger ◽  
...  

Residents in US cities are exposed to high levels of stress and violent crime. At the same time, a number of cities have put forward “greening” efforts which may promote nature’s calming effects and reduce stressful stimuli. Previous research has shown that greening may lower aggressive behaviors and violent crime. In this study we examined, for the first time, the longitudinal effects over a 30-year period of average city greenness on homicide rates across 290 major cities in the US, using multilevel linear growth curve modeling. Overall, homicide rates in US cities decreased over this time-period (52.1–33.5 per 100,000 population) while the average greenness increased slightly (0.41–0.43 NDVI). Change in average city greenness was negatively associated with homicide, controlling for a range of variables (β = −.30, p-value = .02). The results of this study suggest that efforts to increase urban greenness may have small but significant violence-reduction benefits.


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