Future cost and performance of water electrolysis: An expert elicitation study

Forecasts of the future cost and performance of technologies are often used to support decision-making. However, retrospective reviews find that many forecasts made by experts are not very accurate and are often seriously overconfident, with realized values too frequently falling outside of forecasted ranges. Here, we outline a hybrid approach to expert elicitation that we believe might improve forecasts of future technologies. The proposed approach iteratively combines the judgments of technical domain experts with those of experts who are knowledgeable about broader issues of technology adoption and public policy. We motivate the approach with results from a pilot study designed to help forecasters think systematically about factors beyond the technology itself that may shape its future, such as policy, economic, and social factors. Forecasters who received briefings on these topics provided wider forecast intervals than those receiving no assistance.

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COVID-19-related absence among surgeons: development of an international surgical workforce prediction model

BJS Open ◽

10.1093/bjsopen/zraa021 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 5 (2) ◽

Author(s):

◽

Joana F F Simoes ◽

Elizabeth Li ◽

James C Glasbey ◽

Omar M Omar ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Elective Surgery ◽

Cross Sectional Study ◽

Service Planning ◽

Expert Elicitation ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Surgical Services ◽

Surgical Workforce ◽

Elicitation Study ◽

Absence Rate ◽

Surgical Teams

AbstractBackgroundDuring the initial COVID-19 outbreak up to 28.4 million elective operations were cancelled worldwide, in part owing to concerns that it would be unsustainable to maintain elective surgery capacity because of COVID-19-related surgeon absence. Although many hospitals are now recovering, surgical teams need strategies to prepare for future outbreaks. This study aimed to develop a framework to predict elective surgery capacity during future COVID-19 outbreaks.MethodsAn international cross-sectional study determined real-world COVID-19-related absence rates among surgeons. COVID-19-related absences included sickness, self-isolation, shielding, and caring for family. To estimate elective surgical capacity during future outbreaks, an expert elicitation study was undertaken with senior surgeons to determine the minimum surgical staff required to provide surgical services while maintaining a range of elective surgery volumes (0, 25, 50 or 75 per cent).ResultsBased on data from 364 hospitals across 65 countries, the COVID-19-related absence rate during the initial 6 weeks of the outbreak ranged from 20.5 to 24.7 per cent (mean average fortnightly). In weeks 7–12, this decreased to 9.2–13.8 per cent. At all times during the COVID-19 outbreak there was predicted to be sufficient surgical staff available to maintain at least 75 per cent of regular elective surgical volume. Overall, there was predicted capacity for surgeon redeployment to support the wider hospital response to COVID-19.ConclusionThis framework will inform elective surgical service planning during future COVID-19 outbreaks. In most settings, surgeon absence is unlikely to be the factor limiting elective surgery capacity.

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Cost Breakdown of 2.5D and 3D Packaging

Additional Conferences (Device Packaging HiTEC HiTEN & CICMT) ◽

10.4071/2016dpc-ta13 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 2016 (DPC) ◽

pp. 000324-000341 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Chet Palesko ◽

Amy Palesko

Keyword(s):

High Performance ◽

Cost Model ◽

High Price ◽

Future Cost ◽

The Future ◽

3D Packaging ◽

Long Time ◽

Design Characteristics ◽

And Performance ◽

The Cost

2.5D and 3D packaging can provide significant size and performance advantages over other packaging technologies. However, these advantages usually come at a high price. Since 2.5D and 3D packaging costs are significant, today they are only used if no other option can meet the product requirements, and most of these applications are relatively low volume. Products such as high end FPGAs, high performance GPUs, and high bandwidth memory are great applications but none have volume requirements close to mobile phones or tablets. Without the benefit of volume production, the cost of 2.5D and 3D packaging could stay high for a long time. In this paper, we will provide cost model results of a complete 2.5D and 3D manufacturing process. Each manufacturing activity will be included and the key cost drivers will be analyzed regarding future cost reductions. Expensive activities that are well down the learning curve (RDL creation, CMP, etc.) will probably not change much in the future. However, expensive activities that are new to this process (DRIE, temporary bond/debond, etc.) provide good opportunities for cost reduction. A variety of scenarios will be included to understand how design characteristics impact the cost. Understanding how and why the dominant cost components will change over time is critical to accurately predicting the future cost of 2.5D and 3D packaging.

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Alkali doped poly (2,5-benzimidazole) membrane for alkaline water electrolysis: Characterization and performance

Journal of Power Sources ◽

10.1016/j.jpowsour.2016.02.032 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 312 ◽

pp. 128-136 ◽

Cited By ~ 27

Author(s):

Liliana A. Diaz ◽

Jaromír Hnát ◽

Nayra Heredia ◽

Mariano M. Bruno ◽

Federico A. Viva ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Water Electrolysis ◽

Alkaline Water Electrolysis ◽

Alkaline Water ◽

And Performance

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Investigation of the stability of NiFe-(oxy)hydroxide anodes in alkaline water electrolysis under industrially relevant conditions

Catalysis Science & Technology ◽

10.1039/d0cy01179g ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (16) ◽

pp. 5593-5601 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Marco Etzi Coller Pascuzzi ◽

Alex J. W. Man ◽

Andrey Goryachev ◽

Jan P. Hofmann ◽

Emiel J. M. Hensen

Keyword(s):

Elevated Temperature ◽

Current Density ◽

Anodic Polarization ◽

High Current Density ◽

Water Electrolysis ◽

High Current ◽

Alkaline Water Electrolysis ◽

Alkaline Water ◽

And Performance ◽

The Stability

Anodic polarization conducted at high current density, elevated temperature, and high KOH concentration impacted the structure and performance of NiFeOxHy and NiOxHy anodes.

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Hydrogen Ironmaking: How It Works

Metals ◽

10.3390/met10070922 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (7) ◽

pp. 922 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Fabrice Patisson ◽

Olivier Mirgaux

Keyword(s):

Iron Ore ◽

Shaft Furnace ◽

Direct Reduction ◽

Water Electrolysis ◽

Current Standard ◽

Ore Pellets ◽

Production Of Hydrogen ◽

Produce Steel ◽

And Performance ◽

Direct Reduction Of Iron

A new route for making steel from iron ore based on the use of hydrogen to reduce iron oxides is presented, detailed and analyzed. The main advantage of this steelmaking route is the dramatic reduction (90% off) in CO2 emissions compared to those of the current standard blast-furnace route. The first process of the route is the production of hydrogen by water electrolysis using CO2-lean electricity. The challenge is to achieve massive production of H2 in acceptable economic conditions. The second process is the direct reduction of iron ore in a shaft furnace operated with hydrogen only. The third process is the melting of the carbon-free direct reduced iron in an electric arc furnace to produce steel. From mathematical modeling of the direct reduction furnace, we show that complete metallization can be achieved in a reactor smaller than the current shaft furnaces that use syngas made from natural gas. The reduction processes at the scale of the ore pellets are described and modeled using a specific structural kinetic pellet model. Finally, the differences between the reduction by hydrogen and by carbon monoxide are discussed, from the grain scale to the reactor scale. Regarding the kinetics, reduction with hydrogen is definitely faster. Several research and development and innovation projects have very recently been launched that should confirm the viability and performance of this breakthrough and environmentally friendly ironmaking process.

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