scholarly journals Measuring the scientific effectiveness of contact tracing: Evidence from a natural experiment

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (33) ◽  
pp. e2100814118
Author(s):  
Thiemo Fetzer ◽  
Thomas Graeber

Contact tracing has for decades been a cornerstone of the public health approach to epidemics, including Ebola, severe acute respiratory syndrome, and now COVID-19. It has not yet been possible, however, to causally assess the method’s effectiveness using a randomized controlled trial of the sort familiar throughout other areas of science. This study provides evidence that comes close to that ideal. It exploits a large-scale natural experiment that occurred by accident in England in late September 2020. Because of a coding error involving spreadsheet data used by the health authorities, a total of 15,841 COVID-19 cases (around 20% of all cases) failed to have timely contact tracing. By chance, some areas of England were much more severely affected than others. This study finds that the random breakdown of contact tracing led to more illness and death. Conservative causal estimates imply that, relative to cases that were initially missed by the contact tracing system, cases subject to proper contact tracing were associated with a reduction in subsequent new infections of 63% and a reduction insubsequent COVID-19–related deaths of 66% across the 6 wk following the data glitch.

Author(s):  
Dunja Said ◽  
Simon Brinkwirth ◽  
Angelina Taylor ◽  
Robby Markwart ◽  
Tim Eckmanns

The COVID-19 pandemic in Germany has demanded a substantially larger public health workforce to perform contact tracing and contact management of COVID-19 cases, in line with recommendations of the World Health Organization (WHO). In response, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) established the national “Containment Scout Initiative” (CSI) to support the local health authorities with a short-term workforce solution. It is part of a range of measures for strengthening the public health system in order to limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany. The CSI is an example of how solutions to address critical health system capacity issues can be implemented quickly. It also demonstrates that medical or health-related backgrounds may not be necessary to support health authorities with pandemic-specific tasks and fulfil accurate contact tracing. However, it is a short-term solution and cannot compensate for the lack of existing qualified staff as well as other deficits that exist within the public health sector in Germany. This article describes the structure and process of the first phase of this initiative in order to support health policymakers, public health practitioners, and researchers considering innovative and flexible approaches for addressing urgent workforce capacity issues.


2021 ◽  
Vol 104 (4) ◽  
pp. 1493-1494
Author(s):  
Esteban Ortiz-Prado ◽  
Aquiles R. Henriquez-Trujillo ◽  
Ismar A. Rivera-Olivero ◽  
Byron Freire-Paspuel ◽  
Alexander Paolo Vallejo-Janeta ◽  
...  

ABSTRACTRural communities from Latin America are particularly susceptible to develop serious outbreaks of infectious diseases. Inadequate diagnosis and poor health infrastructure jeopardize proper contact tracing and other actions to reduce the impact of COVID-19 in the region. We herein describe the preliminary data of our ongoing fieldwork of massive testing among nonhospitalized rural population in Manabi Province of the coastal region of Ecuador. A total of 1,479 people from six different rural communities were tested for SARS-CoV-2 by RT-qPCR following the CDC protocol; 350 individuals tested positive, resulting in an overall attack rate of 23.7% for SARS-CoV-2 infection. This ultrahigh prevalence must urge to the public health authorities from Ecuador to take immediate actions to counteract this dramatic scenario in Manabi Province and to improve SARS-CoV-2 testing countrywide.


2021 ◽  
Vol 149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan C. Semenza ◽  
Cornelia Adlhoch ◽  
Agoritsa Baka ◽  
Eeva Broberg ◽  
Orlando Cenciarelli ◽  
...  

Abstract Europe is in the midst of a COVID-19 epidemic and a number of non-pharmaceutical public health and social measures have been implemented, in order to contain the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. These measures are fundamental elements of the public health approach to controlling transmission but have proven not to be sufficiently effective. Therefore, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control has conducted an assessment of research gaps that can help inform policy decisions regarding the COVID-19 response. We have identified research gaps in the area of non-pharmaceutical measures, physical distancing, contact tracing, transmission, communication, mental health, seasonality and environment/climate, surveillance and behavioural aspects of COVID-19. This prioritisation exercise is a step towards the global efforts of developing a coherent research road map in coping with the current epidemic but also developing preparedness measures for the next unexpected epidemic.


2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 54-56
Author(s):  
Stelina Alkagiet ◽  
Konstantinos Tziomalos

Primary aldosteronism (PA) is not only a leading cause of secondary and resistant hypertension, but is also quite frequent in unselected hypertensive patients. Moreover, PA is associated with increased cardiovascular risk, which is disproportionate to BP levels. In addition, timely diagnosis of PA and prompt initiation of treatment attenuate this increased risk. On the other hand, there are limited data regarding the usefulness of screening for PA in all asymptomatic or normokalemic hypertensive patients. More importantly, until now, no well-organized, large-scale, prospective, randomized controlled trial has proved the effectiveness of screening for PA for improving clinical outcome. Accordingly, until more relevant data are available, screening for PA should be considered in hypertensive patients with spontaneous or diuretic-induced hypokalemia as well as in those with resistant hypertension. However, screening for PA in all hypertensive patients cannot be currently recommended.


Author(s):  
Thomas Plümper ◽  
Eric Neumayer

AbstractBackgroundThe Robert-Koch-Institute reports that during the summer holiday period a foreign country is stated as the most likely place of infection for an average of 27 and a maximum of 49% of new SARS-CoV-2 infections in Germany.MethodsCross-sectional study on observational data. In Germany, summer school holidays are coordinated between states and spread out over 13 weeks. Employing a dynamic model with district fixed effects, we analyze the association between these holidays and weekly incidence rates across 401 German districts.ResultsWe find effects of the holiday period of around 45% of the average district incidence rates in Germany during their respective final week of holidays and the 2 weeks after holidays end. Western states tend to experience stronger effects than Eastern states. We also find statistically significant interaction effects of school holidays with per capita taxable income and the share of foreign residents in a district’s population.ConclusionsOur results suggest that changed behavior during the holiday season accelerated the pandemic and made it considerably more difficult for public health authorities to contain the spread of the virus by means of contact tracing. Germany’s public health authorities did not prepare adequately for this acceleration.


2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Felix Gille ◽  
Caroline Brall

AbstractPublic trust is paramount for the well functioning of data driven healthcare activities such as digital health interventions, contact tracing or the build-up of electronic health records. As the use of personal data is the common denominator for these healthcare activities, healthcare actors have an interest to ensure privacy and anonymity of the personal data they depend on. Maintaining privacy and anonymity of personal data contribute to the trustworthiness of these healthcare activities and are associated with the public willingness to trust these activities with their personal data. An analysis of online news readership comments about the failed care.data programme in England revealed that parts of the public have a false understanding of anonymity in the context of privacy protection of personal data as used for healthcare management and medical research. Some of those commenting demanded complete anonymity of their data to be willing to trust the process of data collection and analysis. As this demand is impossible to fulfil and trust is built on a false understanding of anonymity, the inability to meet this demand risks undermining public trust. Since public concerns about anonymity and privacy of personal data appear to be increasing, a large-scale information campaign about the limits and possibilities of anonymity with respect to the various uses of personal health data is urgently needed to help the public to make better informed choices about providing personal data.


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