Age-specific Contribution of Contacts to Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany

Introduction: Current estimates of pandemic spread using infectious disease models in Germany for SARS-CoV-2 often do not use age-specific infection parameters and are not always based on known contact matrices of the population. They also do not usually include setting-based information of reported cases and do not account for age-specific underdetection of reported cases. Here, we report likely pandemic spread using an age-structured model to understand the age- and setting-specific contribution of contacts to transmission during all phases of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany. Methods: We developed a deterministic SEIRS model using a pre-pandemic contact matrix. The model is optimized to fit reported age-specific SARS-CoV-2 incidences from the Robert Koch Institute, includes information on setting-specific reported cases in schools and integrates age and pandemic period-specific parameters for underdetection of reported cases deduced from a large population-based seroprevalence study. Results: We showed that taking underreporting into account, younger adults and teenagers are the main contributors to infections during the first three pandemic waves in Germany. Overall, the contribution of contacts in schools to the total cases in the population was below 10% during the third wave. Discussion: Accounting for the pandemic phase and age-specific underreporting seems important to correctly identify those parts of the population where quarantine, testing, vaccination, and contact-reduction measures are likely to be most effective and efficient. In the future, we will aim to compare current model estimates with currently emerging during-pandemic age-specific contact survey data.

Estimation of R0 for the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany from Excess Mortality

Background For SARS-CoV-2, R0 calculations in the range of 2-3 dominate the literature, but much higher estimates have also been published. Because capacity for PCR testing increased greatly in the early phase of the Covid-19 pandemic, R0 determinations based on these incidence values are subject to strong bias. We propose to use Covid-19-induced excess mortality to determine R0 regardless of PCR testing capacity. Methods We used data from the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) on the incidence of Covid cases, Covid-related deaths, number of PCR tests performed, and excess mortality calculated from data from the Federal Statistical Office in Germany. We determined R0 using exponential growth estimates with a serial interval of 4.7 days. We used only datasets that were not yet under the influence of policy measures (e.g., lockdowns or school closures). Results The uncorrected R0 value for the spread of SARS-CoV-2 based on PCR incidence data was 2.56 (95% CI 2.52-2.60) for Covid-19 cases and 2.03 (95%CI 1.96-2.10) for Covid-19-related deaths. However, because the number of PCR tests increased by a growth factor of 1.381 during the same period, these R0 values must be corrected accordingly (R0corrected = R0uncorrected/1.381), yielding 1.86 for Covid-19 cases and 1.47 for Covid-19 deaths. The R0 value based on excess deaths was calculated to be 1.34 (95% CI 1.32-1.37). A sine-function-based adjustment for seasonal effects of 40% corresponds to a maximum value of R0January = 1.68 and a minimum value of R0July = 1.01. Discussion Our calculations show an R0 that is much lower than previously thought. This relatively low range of R0 fits very well with the observed seasonal pattern of infection across Europe in 2020 and 2021, including the emergence of more contagious escape variants such as delta or omicron. In general, our study shows that excess mortality can be used as a reliable surrogate to determine the R0 in pandemic situations.

KiESEL - The Children’s Nutrition Survey to Record Food Consumption for the Youngest in Germany

BackgroundWith KiESEL, the Children’s Nutrition Survey to Record Food Consumption, the German Federal Institute for Risk Assessment (BfR) collected representative food consumption data for children aged six months up to five years. KiESEL was one of five modules of KiGGS Wave2 (German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Children and Adolescents) conducted by the Robert Koch-Institute (RKI). The objective was to update the consumption data for children in Germany and to fill a data gap for the age group of five-year-old children. The study provides an up-to-date and comprehensive database that will be used for exposure assessment, as part of risk assessment of Germany’s youngest consumers. MethodsIn the years 2014 to 2017, more than 1000 children from all over Germany participated in KiESEL. During home visits, survey staff conducted a questionnaire-based interview including a food propensity questionnaire (FPQ) on seldom eaten foods and questions concerning consumption outside home, dietary habits and diet during first year. The interviewer measured the children’s height and weight. Families and childcare workers filled out a food record, covering three consecutive days and one independent day. Data are based on the FPQ and present consumption frequencies. Depending on the question, socioeconomic status (SES) and migration background were considered.Results 1104 participants had an interview and filled out the questionnaire on usual food intake, seldom eaten foods and consumption away from home. They were included in sample1. 1008 of these participants additionally reported food consumption of at least three days (sample2). 91.2 % of the children follow no special diet and 0.8 % are vegetarians. 7 % of the older children consuming soya-drink. For some foods differences in consumption across SES or migration status were noted. Children from families with higher SES consume more often soya-based substitute milk as families with lower SES (p<0.00005).ConclusionsKiESEL gathered up-to-date consumption data for more than 1000 children living in Germany, aged six month up to including five years. The data will be used for risk assessments of the BfR and provided to national and international partners.

The coronavirus generation, i.e., the life situation of German children and adolescents during the pandemic

The results of the research presented in the article illustrate the complexity of the life situation of German children and adolescents during the pandemic. The article also presents the professional situation of parents during the crisis caused by the pandemic and changes in the labor market (e.g. the coronavirus effect). The results of the first studies characterizing the phenomenon of domestic violence, conducted by researchers at the Technical University of Munich, are also shown. The situation of children and adolescents is illustrated, among others, by numerical data of criminal statistics or the Robert Koch Institute. In the article, the midwife emphasizes examples of such research results in which children and adolescents were participants. This is because such a selection of respondents makes it possible to get to know their opinions about the time of the pandemic, lockdown or homeschooling. The research also revealed that the coronavirus has become a "virus of social inequality" as it has worsened the situation of families at risk of poverty. The conclusion also shows the directions of activities undertaken by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research to support students after the lockdown period.

Estimation of R0 for the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany from Excess Mortality

For SARS-CoV-2, R0 calculations report usually 2-3, biased by PCR testing increases. Covid-19-induced excess mortality is less biased. We used data from Robert Koch Institute on Covid incidence, deaths, and PCR tests and excess mortality to determine early, policy-free R0 estimates with a serial interval of 4.7 days. The PCR-based R0 value was 2.56 (95% CI 2.52-2.60) for Covid-19 cases and 2.03 (95%CI 1.96-2.10) for Covid-19-related deaths. As the number of PCR tests increased, R0 values were corrected accordingly, yielding 1.86 for Covid-19 cases and 1.47 for Covid-19 deaths, excess deaths were 1.34 (95% CI 1.32-1.37). R0 is much lower than previously thought. This fits the observed seasonal pattern of infection across Europe in 2020-2021, including emergence of more contagious escape variants such as delta.

Characterizing the effective reproduction number during the COVID-19 epidemic: Insights from Qatar experience

Background: The effective reproduction number, Rt, is a tool to track and understand epidemic dynamics. This investigation of Rt estimations was conducted to guide the national COVID-19 response in Qatar, from the onset of the epidemic until August 18, 2021. Methods: Real-time empirical RtEmpirical was estimated using five methods, including the Robert Koch Institute, Cislaghi, Systrom-Bettencourt and Ribeiro, Wallinga and Teunis, and Cori et al. methods. Rt was also estimated using a transmission dynamics model (RtModel-based). Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were conducted. Agreements between different Rt estimates were assessed by calculating correlation coefficients. Results: RtEmpirical captured the evolution of the epidemic through three waves, public health response landmarks, effects of major social events, transient fluctuations coinciding with significant clusters of infection, and introduction and expansion of the B.1.1.7 variant. The various estimation methods produced consistent and overall comparable RtEmpirical estimates with generally large correlation coefficients. The Wallinga and Teunis method was the fastest at detecting changes in epidemic dynamics. RtEmpirical estimates were consistent whether using time series of symptomatic PCR-confirmed cases, all PCR-confirmed cases, acute-care hospital admissions, or ICU-care hospital admissions, to proxy trends in true infection incidence. RtModel-based correlated strongly with RtEmpirical and provided an average RtEmpirical. Conclusions: Rt estimations were robust and generated consistent results regardless of the data source or the method of estimation. Findings affirmed an influential role for Rt estimations in guiding national responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, even in resource-limited settings.

Spatiotemporal modeling of first and second wave outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 in Germany

The COVID-19 pandemic has kept the world in suspense for the past year. In most federal countries such as Germany, locally varying conditions demand for state- or county-level decisions to adapt to the disease dynamics. However, this requires a deep understanding of the mesoscale outbreak dynamics between microscale agent models and macroscale global models. Here, we use a reparameterized SIQRD network model that accounts for local political decisions to predict the spatiotemporal evolution of the pandemic in Germany at county resolution. Our optimized model reproduces state-wise cumulative infections and deaths as reported by the Robert Koch Institute and predicts the development for individual counties at convincing accuracy during both waves in spring and fall of 2020. We demonstrate the dominating effect of local infection seeds and identify effective measures to attenuate the rapid spread. Our model has great potential to support decision makers on a state and community politics level to individually strategize their best way forward during the months to come.

Burdens, resources, health and wellbeing of nurses working in general and specialised palliative care in Germany – results of a nationwide cross-sectional survey study

Background Palliative care in Germany is divided into general (GPC) and specialised palliative care (SPC). Although palliative care will become more important in the care sector in future, there is a large knowledge gab, especially with regard to GPC. The aim of this study was to identify and compare the burdens, resources, health and wellbeing of nurses working in GPC and SPC. Such information will be helpful for developing prevention programs in order to reduce burdens and to strengthen resources of nurses. Methods In 2017, a nationwide cross-sectional survey was conducted. In total, 437 nurses in GPC and 1316 nurses in SPC completed a questionnaire containing parts of standardised instruments, which included parts of the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire (COPSOQ), the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-2), the Resilience Scale (RS-13) Questionnaire, a single question about back pain from the health survey conducted by the Robert Koch Institute as well as self-developed questions. The differences in the variables between GPC and SPC nurses were compared. Results SPC nurses reported higher emotional demands as well as higher burdens due to nursing care and the care of relatives while GPC nurses stated higher quantitative demands, i.e. higher workload. SPC nurses more often reported organisational and social resources that were helpful in dealing with the demands of their work. Regarding health, GPC nurses stated a poorer health status and reported chronic back pain as well as a major depressive disorder more frequently than SPC nurses. Furthermore, GPC nurses reported a higher intention to leave the profession compared to SPC nurses. Conclusions The findings of the present study indicate that SPC could be reviewed as the best practice example for nursing care in Germany. The results may be used for developing target group specific prevention programs for improving health and wellbeing of nurses taking the differences between GPC and SPC into account. Finally, interventional and longitudinal studies should be conducted in future to determine causality in the relationship of burdens, resources, health and wellbeing.

Severe Pneumonia in Neonates Associated with Legionella pneumophila: Case Report and Review of the Literature

The causative agent of legionellosis is the Gram-negative intracellular bacteria Legionella spp. Its clinical presentation varies from a mild febrile illness called Pontiac fever to the severe and possible fatal pneumonia, Legionnaires’ disease. Immunocompromised patients, in particular, are affected. Only a small number of infected neonates are described in the literature. Most of them have been associated with water birth or the use of air humidifiers. In the last five years, a growing number of cases have been reported in Germany by the national institute of disease surveillance and prevention (Robert-Koch Institute). Here, we describe a fatal case report of pulmonary legionellosis with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), sepsis, associated cutaneous manifestation, and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation in a full-term neonate (GA 39+3). Moreover, we present a review of the literature discussing the epidemiology, risk factors, clinical features, diagnostics, treatment options, and prevention for this rare condition in neonates.

Handrub dispensers per acute care hospital bed: a study to develop a new minimum standard

Background Accessibility to alcohol-based handrub (ABHR) dispenser is crucial to improve compliance to hand hygiene (HH), being offered as wall-mounted dispensers (ABHR-Ds), and/or pocket bottles. Nevertheless, information on the distribution and density of ABHR-Ds and their impact on HH have hardly been studied. Institutions such as the World Health Organisation or the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention do not provide guidance. The Robert-Koch-Institute (RKI) from Germany recommends an overall density of > 0.5 dispensers per patient bed. We aimed to investigate current conditions in hospitals to develop a standard on the minimal number of ABHR-D. Methods Between 07 and 09/2019, we applied a questionnaire to 178 hospitals participating in the Swissnoso National Surveillance Network to evaluate number and location of ABHR-Ds per bed in acute care hospitals, and compared the data with consumption and compliance with HH. Results 110 of the 178 (62%) hospitals provided data representing approximately 20,000 hospital beds. 83% hospitals provided information on both the total number of ABHR-Ds and patient beds, with a mean of 2.4 ABHR-Ds per bed (range, 0.4–22.1). While most hospitals (84%) had dispensers located at the room entrance, 47% reported also locations near or at the bed. Additionally, pocket-sized dispensers (100 mL) are available in 97% of hospitals. Conclusions Swiss hospitals provide 2.4 dispensers per bed, much more than governmental recommendation. The first study on the number of ABHR-Ds in hospitals may help to define a minimal standard for national and international recommendations