Tourism development and its impact on economic growth in Pakistan.

2021 ◽  
pp. 117-131
Author(s):  
Sheereen Fauzel ◽  
Zameelah Khan Jaffur ◽  
Boopen Seetanah
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Tourism Development ◽  
The Self ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Dynamic Time ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

Abstract This chapter discusses in the first instance the development of tourism in Pakistan, delving into the government's support of it and its potential as well as the challenges of the industry. The chapter subsequently investigates the impact of tourism development on economic growth in Pakistan over the period 1980 to 2018 using a dynamic time-series analysis, namely a vector autoregressive framework, which allows for the possibility of endogeneity and causality issues. The results proved the existence of the tourism-led growth hypothesis and that tourism development has contributed to economic growth in the long run; perhaps not as much as it could have given the potential of this sector. A bidirectional causality is also reported between tourism development and economic growth, confirming the self-reinforcing nature of the tourism-growth nexus.

The role of international tourism in the Maldives.

2021 ◽  
pp. 132-148
Author(s):  
Rajasundram Sathiendrakumar ◽  
Zameelah Khan Jaffur ◽  
Boopen Seetanah
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Tourism Development ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Tourism Planning ◽  
Full Effect ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Dynamic Time ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This chapter considers the development of tourism in the Maldives and delves into tourism planning and promotion since the 1970s. It also empirically investigates the impact of tourism on economic growth in the Maldives from 1995 to 2016 in both static and dynamic time-series analysis settings. Both the static and dynamic regression results depicted a positive and quite sizeable relationship between tourism and economic growth. It is noteworthy that the analysis could not confirm any relationship in the short run, suggesting that tourism development has its full effect on the economy with time.

scholarly journals Political Stability and its Impact on Economic Growth of Pakistan (1988-2018): A Time Series Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 273-282
Author(s):  
Majid Hussain Phul ◽  
Muhammad Saleem Rahpoto ◽  
Ghulam Muhammad Mangnejo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

This research paper empirically investigates the outcome of Political stability on economic growth (EG) of Pakistan for the period of 1988 to 2018. Political stability (PS), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), total labor force (TLF) and Inflation (INF) are important explanatory variables. Whereas for model selection GDPr is used as the dependent variable. To check the stationary of time series data Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root (UR) test has been used,  and whereas to find out the long run relationship among variables, OLS method has been used. The analysis the impact of PS on EG (EG) in the short run, VAR model has been used. The outcomes show that all the variables (PS, GFCF, TLF and INF) have a significantly positive effect on the EG of Pakistan in the long run period. But the effect of PS on GDP is smaller. Further, in this research we are trying to see the short run relationship between GDP and other explanatory variables. The outcomes show that PS does not have such effect on GDP in the short run analysis. While GFCF, TLF and INF have significantly positive effect on GDP of Pakistan in the short run period.

scholarly journals Impact of Crude Prices on Retail Prices – A Time Series Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2S7) ◽  
pp. 606-612
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Multivariate Time Series ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

The UK has emerged as one of the largest producers of petroleum in the world. A significant amount of petroleum is used for fulfilling the energy demand within the country. However, the country witnessed a different trend from 2015. This is mainly due to the increase in imports of petroleum in order to meet domestic needs. To this, there is a need to identify the impact of changes exist in petrol and crude oil prices in the UK. In this context, the researcher has undertaken primary research to derive conclusions which are case specific and can comply with the research aim. The study used secondary data for the year 2015-2018 and conducted multivariate time series analysis. A series of tests including unit root, ARIMA, and co-integration tests were used to derive the results. The study found that there was an asymmetric relationship between the movements of prices of crude oil with respect to retail fuel prices in the long run. However, the study is not without limitations which are represented at the end of the study following with its future scope

scholarly journals Are some taxes better for growth in Pakistan? A time series analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (10) ◽  
pp. 1439-1452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kashif Munir ◽  
Maryam Sultan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Sales Tax ◽  
Tax Base ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Indirect Taxes ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of taxes on economic growth in the long run as well as in the short run. Design/methodology/approach The study uses simple time series model, where real GDP is dependent variable and different forms of taxes are explanatory variables under ARDL framework from 1976 to 2014 at annual frequency for Pakistan. Findings Direct taxes have positive relation with economic growth in the long run. Sales tax, tax on international trade (tariffs) and other indirect taxes have positive impact on economic growth of Pakistan in the long run as well as in the short run. However, sales tax and other indirect taxes impact negatively on economic growth in the short run after one year because people realize decline in their real income. Practical implications Government should increase direct taxes by increasing tax base. Indirect taxes usually indicate negative impact after one and two years; therefore, government should decrease its reliance on indirect taxes. Government should promote tax awareness among the people which increase the tax morale of people and increase the tax base. Originality/value Taxes are disaggregated into direct and indirect taxes, while indirect taxes have been further disaggregated into excise duty, sales tax, surcharges, tax on international trade and other indirect taxes. This study provides useful insight for policy makers in designing taxes and their effect on growth.

scholarly journals Does Export Led Growth Hypothesis Hold Under World Crisis Recovery Regime in Malaysia?

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 9
Author(s):  
Asmawi Hashim ◽  
Norimah Rambeli ◽  
Norasibah Abdul Jalil ◽  
Normala Zulkifli ◽  
Emilda Hashim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Data Series ◽  
World Crisis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

This paper examines empirically the nature of the impact of the exchange rate on import, export and economic growth in Malaysia from 2009 until 2018. The objective of this study is to investigate the long-term and short-term relationship between endogenous and exogenous variables and also to identify the effects of exchange rates on dependent variables including imports, exports and the Gross Domestic Product (DGP) that represent the productivity of the country. This study further focuses on investigating the impact or the role of export in drive the county economic growth. In achieving these objectives, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) testing procedure is used to test the presence of unit root. In order to investigate the incidence of long run relationship between the data series, the Johansen Juselius Cointegration Vector is utilized. The Granger Causality in Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) framework is employed to differentiate between short run and long run causal effects in examining the led growth determinants. The result shows that there is causality between exchange rate, import, export and GDP. Moreover, this study shows that exchange rates responded positively to import and export and negatively to GDP. The result further support for export led growth hypothesis in this study. Thus, confirm for the role of export in motivating the economic growth productivity in after World Crisis regime in year 2008. However, Malaysia must not only relay on international trade to generate income for the country. This is because Malaysia is fortunate to have survived the negative effects of the global crisis; the international trade is exposed to exchange rate instability. If Malaysia wants to succeed in international trade, it may be able to focus on food and services trade. As alternative Malaysia may focuses on agriculture sector by improving the research and development and be a champion on food supply for the world.

A Study of Causality between Bank Credit and GDP Growth in India

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dhiren Jotwani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Bank Credit ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Growth Data ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Indian Economy ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The factors that cause Economic growth are varied and diverse. Theory has however managed to identify certain key factors, of which finance is one. In recent years, there have been studies using econometric time-series analysis to study the short-run and long-run relationships between finance and growth, for various countries. This paper is a study of the Indian economy, where we try to determine the causal relationship between bank credit and economic growth. Data from 1972 to 2012 for the Indian economy has been used for this study. The results suggest that provision of bank credit leads to economic growth. However, an increase in economic growth may not lead to further provision of bank credit in the economy. In other words, there is unidirectional causality from bank credit to growth.

scholarly journals The Effect of Exchange Rate Movements and Economic Growth on Job Creation

2017 ◽  
Vol 62 (2) ◽  
pp. 20-41
Author(s):  
Chama Chipeta ◽  
Daniel Francois Meyer ◽  
Paul-Francois Muzindutsi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Job Creation ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
The Real ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Exchange Rate Shocks ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Job creation is at the centre of economic development and remains a source of sustenance for social and human relations. The creation of a job-enabling economic environment is imperative in promoting social and economic cohesiveness in the macro and microeconomic environment. Any shocks to the economy, particularly those of exchange rate shocks and changes in economic growth, may negatively affect the labour market and job creation. This study made use of quarterly observations, from the first quarter of 1995 to the fourth quarter of 2015, to investigate the effect of the real exchange rate and economic growth on South Africa’s employment status. South Africa, a developing country, was selected as a case study due to its high unemployment rate that is still increasing. The Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and multivariate co-integration techniques were used in assessing the impact and responsiveness of employment to the real exchange rate and real economic growth in South Africa. Findings of this study revealed that employment responds positively to economic growth and negatively to the real exchange rate in the long-run. The short-run displays a positive relationship between real economic growth and employment, while the relationship between employment and the real exchange rate is also negative. However, the effect of economic growth in creating jobs is not significant enough in stimulating job creation in South Africa, as indicated by results in variance decomposition. Movements in the exchange rate exerted a significant short and long-run negative effect on employment dynamics; implying that a depreciation of the rand against the U.S. dollar is associated with decrease in overall employment. Exchange rate stability is thus important for economic growth and job creation in South Africa. The study provided further recommendations on promoting job creation in South Africa and other developing countries.

scholarly journals The Impact of Remittances on Economic Growth of Kyrgyzstan

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Burulcha Sulaimanova ◽  
Daniyar Jasoolov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Kyrgyz Republic ◽  
Empirical Estimation ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this paper is to study the impact of remittances on the gross domestic product of Kyrgyz Republic, by using several empirical estimation methods, these are: the method of simultaneous equations, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag and Vector Autoregressive models. While there is a long run relationship between remittances and economic growth of Kyrgyzstan, according to the estimation results of the simultaneous models, there is statistically significant positive correlation of households’ final consumption and imports with remittances, and simultaneously significant positive effect of consumption on GDP, and significant, but negative impact of imports to GDP. Moreover, the small but significant impact of remittances on demand for domestic products were found.

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