Log-linear probability models: an application to the analysis of timing of first birth

1985 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 477-489 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evelyn Lehrer
Keyword(s):  
Probability Models ◽  
First Birth ◽  
Log Linear ◽  
Linear Probability

scholarly journals Why is syphilis rising in Europe? Multi-level modelling of alternative hypotheses in 31 countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
A Mendez-Lopez ◽  
D Stuckler ◽  
T Noori ◽  
J C Semenza
Keyword(s):  
Risky Sexual Behavior ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Internet Survey ◽  
Probability Models ◽  
Syphilis Infection ◽  
Detection Rates ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
Multi Level ◽  
Sex With Men ◽  
Linear Probability

Abstract Background Syphilis transmission has increased markedly over the past two decades in Europe, concentrated in men who have sex with men. We test alternative potential social and behavioral individual- and population-level determinants of this resurgence. Methods Two rounds of the cross-sectional European Men who have sex with men Internet Survey (EMIS 2010 and 2017, n = 272,902) were used to fit multi-level linear probability models to evaluate determinants of the incidence of self-reported syphilis, capturing risky sexual behaviours and pre-exposure prophylaxis use, among others, adjusting for potential sociodemographic confounders. Results Self-reported syphilis incidence rates rose by about 1.8 percentage points (within the last 12 months) and 3.9 (within the last 5 years) between the 2010 and 2017 waves, after adjusting for sociodemographic factors. HIV status was a major risk factor for syphilis infection (27.6 ppt higher incident rate, 95%CI: 24.7 to 30.5). A dose-response relationship was observed between greater numbers of condomless non-steady partners and syphilis infection, with more than 10 partners estimating increases in the probability of diagnosis of over 25 ppt (11-20 partners vs none: 24.5 ppt, 95%CI: 20.5 to 28.5); further, we observed evidence of mediation for number of condomless non-steady partners, which attenuated the estimated rise in 2017 vs 2010 by about 35%. STI testing uptake also accounted for a substantial increase in syphilis incidence signaling higher detection rates over time. While country-level PrEP use was linked to greater number of condomless partners, there was no substantial impact of population-wide factors, including GDP and PrEP use, on overall syphilis trends. Conclusions Risky sexual behavior changes, particularly condomless sex with non-steady partners, appears to be a major contributing factor to rising syphilis incidence. Further research is needed to understand what accounts for this substantial behavior change. Key messages Increased number of condomless non-steady partners accounts for a substantial rise in syphilis trends. Population-level PrEP use was linked to increasing numbers of condomless non-steady partners but had no substantial impact on overall syphilis trends.

scholarly journals A community intervention to reduce alcohol consumption and drunkenness among adolescents in Sweden: a quasi-experiment

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Svensson ◽  
Björn Johnson ◽  
Karl Kronkvist
Keyword(s):  
Alcohol Consumption ◽  
Community Intervention ◽  
Parental Attitudes ◽  
Compulsory Education ◽  
Self Report ◽  
Probability Models ◽  
Drinking Habits ◽  
Adolescent Drinking ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
Linear Probability

Abstract Background Several studies have examined the effect of community interventions on youth alcohol consumption, and the results have often been mixed. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of a community intervention known as the Öckerö Method on adolescent alcohol consumption and perceived parental attitudes towards adolescent drinking. Method The study is based on a quasi-experimental design, using matched controls. Self-report studies were conducted among adolescents in grades 7–9 of compulsory education in four control and four intervention communities in the south of Sweden in 2016–2018. Baseline measures were collected in autumn 2016 before the intervention was implemented in the intervention communities. Outcomes were the adolescents’ alcohol consumption, past-year drunkenness, past-month drunkenness and perceived parental attitudes towards alcohol. Results Estimating Difference-in-Difference models using Linear Probability Models, we found no empirical evidence that the intervention has any effect on adolescents’ drinking habits, or on their perceptions of their parents’ attitudes towards adolescent drinking. Conclusion This is the first evaluation of this method, and we found no evidence that the intervention had any effect on the level of either young people’s alcohol consumption or their past-year or past-month drunkenness, nor on their parents’ perceived attitudes toward adolescent drinking. A further improvement would be to employ a follow-up period that is longer than the three-year period employed in this study. Trial registration ISRCTN registry: Study ID: 51635778, 31th March 2021 (Retrospectively registered).

scholarly journals Excellent Self-Rated Health among Swedish Boys and Girls and Its Relationship with Working Conditions in School: A Cross-Sectional Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 1310
Author(s):  
Sara Brolin Låftman ◽  
Maria Granvik Saminathen ◽  
Bitte Modin ◽  
Petra Löfstedt
Keyword(s):  
Academic Success ◽  
Working Conditions ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Probability Models ◽  
Positive Health ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
School Aged Children ◽  
Self Rated Health ◽  
Linear Probability ◽  
Classmate Support

The aim of this study was to investigate the extent to which school demands, teacher support, and classmate support were associated with excellent self-rated health among students, and to examine if any such statistical predictions differed by gender. Data were drawn from the Swedish Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) study of 2017/18, performed among adolescents in grades five, seven, and nine (n = 3701). Linear probability models showed that school demands were negatively associated with excellent self-rated health, whereas teacher and classmate support showed positive associations. The link with school demands was stronger for girls than boys, driven by the finding that in grades five and nine, school demands were associated with excellent self-rated health only among girls. In conclusion, the study suggests that working conditions in school in terms of manageable school demands and strong teacher and classmate support may benefit adolescents’ positive health. The finding that the link between school demands and excellent self-rated health was more evident among girls than among boys may be interpreted in light of girls’ on average stronger focus on schoolwork and academic success. The study contributes with to knowledge about how working conditions in school may impede or promote students’ positive health.

scholarly journals Assessing the CogBIAS hypothesis: A multilevel and network approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Orestis Zavlis
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Life Experiences ◽  
Differential Susceptibility ◽  
Cognitive Outcomes ◽  
Probability Models ◽  
Form Complex ◽  
Interpretation Biases ◽  
Polygenic Scores ◽  
Linear Probability ◽  
First Time

The Cognitive Bias (CogBIAS) hypothesis posits that cognitive biases develop as a function of environmental influences (that determine the valence of the biases) as well as the differential susceptibility to those influences (that determine the potency of the biases). The current study employed data from the CogBIAS Longitudinal Study (CogBIAS-L-S) to assess, for the first time, the CogBIAS hypothesis. In particular, measures of life experiences and polygenic scores for depression were employed to assess the longitudinal development of two cognitive biases (namely, memory and interpretation biases) in a three-wave sample of adolescents aging 12-16 years. A series of multilevel linear probability models revealed that positive life experiences promote wellbeing by enhancing positive and diminishing negative cognition; and negative life experiences can, under some circumstances, promote positive cognition through a form of ‘steeling’ effect. Although the depression polygenic scores (MDD PRS) were unable to directly predict the cognitive outcomes, the interaction between them and positive life experiences was shown to lead to a stronger positive social interpretation bias. Exploratory network techniques supported the notion that cognitive biases and dependent life events form complex systems that collectively exert influences onto psychological wellbeing/illness. The current results provide the first line of polygenic evidence in support of the CogBIAS and extend the theory by revealing additional patterns that can be incorporated into the CogBIAS model.

scholarly journals Hidden Casualties: The Links between Armed Conflict and Intimate Partner Violence in Colombia

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-33
Author(s):  
Signe Svallfors
Keyword(s):  
Intimate Partner Violence ◽  
Partner Violence ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Intimate Partner ◽  
Probability Models ◽  
Women’S Experiences ◽  
Women's Experiences ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Linear Probability

Abstract The Colombian peace process was internationally celebrated for its unprecedented focus on women's experiences of war, but the everyday violence women that may face in their homes was not acknowledged. This article explores the links between exposure to local armed conflict violence and individual women's experiences of intimate partner violence. I combine pooled nationally representative data on individual women's experiences of intimate partner violence with information about the intensity of conflict during 2004–16. Results of fixed-effects linear probability models show that conflict was generally linked to a slightly elevated risk of women experiencing emotional, physical, and sexual violence perpetrated by their partner. Among women who had experienced intimate partner violence, conflict was related to an increased probability of being partnered at interview, which could reflect women staying in abusive relationships because conflict normalizes violence or increases women's reluctance to leave those relationships.

Turkish Consumer Participation in E-Commerce

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 30-50
Author(s):  
Tekin Kose ◽  
Sebnem Arslan
Keyword(s):  
Household Survey ◽  
Online Marketing ◽  
Consumer Participation ◽  
Older Individuals ◽  
Probability Models ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Participation Decision ◽  
Use Of Technology ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Linear Probability

This study investigates socio-economic factors affecting participation by Turkish individuals in electronic commerce. By exploiting a nationally representative household survey data from Turkey, non-linear probability models are employed to quantify the factors influencing participation decision of consumers in e-commerce. Empirical findings indicate that income level, education level, being employed, variety of internet use, technology skills and trust in internet have positive relationships with both use of e-commerce and amount of online expenditures. While relatively younger and older individuals are less likely to engage in e-commerce activities, middle-aged individuals are more likely to participate. Although females are more likely to participate in e-commerce, they tend to spend less in their e-commerce activities compared to males. Research findings imply that policies to encourage use of technology and online marketing strategies of businesses should employ different approaches which specially target sub-groups of society with respect socio-demographics.

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