On a risk measure inspired from the ruin probability and the expected deficit at ruin

2015 ◽  
Vol 2016 (10) ◽  
pp. 932-951 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilie-Radu Mitric ◽  
Julien Trufin
2012 ◽  
Vol 49 (2) ◽  
pp. 364-384 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne-Laure Fougeres ◽  
Cecile Mercadier

The modeling of insurance risks has received an increasing amount of attention because of solvency capital requirements. The ruin probability has become a standard risk measure to assess regulatory capital. In this paper we focus on discrete-time models for the finite time horizon. Several results are available in the literature to calibrate the ruin probability by means of the sum of the tail probabilities of individual claim amounts. The aim of this work is to obtain asymptotics for such probabilities under multivariate regular variation and, more precisely, to derive them from extensions of Breiman's theorem. We thus present new situations where the ruin probability admits computable equivalents. We also derive asymptotics for the value at risk.


2012 ◽  
Vol 49 (02) ◽  
pp. 364-384 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne-Laure Fougeres ◽  
Cecile Mercadier

The modeling of insurance risks has received an increasing amount of attention because of solvency capital requirements. The ruin probability has become a standard risk measure to assess regulatory capital. In this paper we focus on discrete-time models for the finite time horizon. Several results are available in the literature to calibrate the ruin probability by means of the sum of the tail probabilities of individual claim amounts. The aim of this work is to obtain asymptotics for such probabilities under multivariate regular variation and, more precisely, to derive them from extensions of Breiman's theorem. We thus present new situations where the ruin probability admits computable equivalents. We also derive asymptotics for the value at risk.


Author(s):  
Joyjit Dhar ◽  
Ram Pratap Sinha

The present study extends the portfolio evaluation framework provided by Sharpe (1964) and Treynor (1965) by including the parameter of market timing with the help of a non-parametric framework. Data envelopment analysis has been used in the present exercise to evaluate the performance 79 mutual funds schemes operating in India for three different phases using two different models. Estimation of technical efficiency on the basis of both the models suggests that period 2 performance is substantially divergent from period 1 and 3. Also, higher moments framework gives a better measure of performance as it accounts not only the standard risk measure but also for skewness and kurtosis characteristics of returns.


Author(s):  
Andrea Consiglio ◽  
Stavros A. Zenios

AbstractDebt restructuring is one of the policy tools available for resolving sovereign debt crises and, while unorthodox, it is not uncommon. We propose a scenario analysis for debt sustainability and integrate it with scenario optimization for risk management in restructuring sovereign debt. The scenario dynamics of debt-to-GDP ratio are used to define a tail risk measure, termed


Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 60
Author(s):  
Cláudia Simões ◽  
Luís Oliveira ◽  
Jorge M. Bravo

Protecting against unexpected yield curve, inflation, and longevity shifts are some of the most critical issues institutional and private investors must solve when managing post-retirement income benefits. This paper empirically investigates the performance of alternative immunization strategies for funding targeted multiple liabilities that are fixed in timing but random in size (inflation-linked), i.e., that change stochastically according to consumer price or wage level indexes. The immunization procedure is based on a targeted minimax strategy considering the M-Absolute as the interest rate risk measure. We investigate to what extent the inflation-hedging properties of ILBs in asset liability management strategies targeted to immunize multiple liabilities of random size are superior to that of nominal bonds. We use two alternative datasets comprising daily closing prices for U.S. Treasuries and U.S. inflation-linked bonds from 2000 to 2018. The immunization performance is tested over 3-year and 5-year investment horizons, uses real and not simulated bond data and takes into consideration the impact of transaction costs in the performance of immunization strategies and in the selection of optimal investment strategies. The results show that the multiple liability immunization strategy using inflation-linked bonds outperforms the equivalent strategy using nominal bonds and is robust even in a nearly zero interest rate scenario. These results have important implications in the design and structuring of ALM liability-driven investment strategies, particularly for retirement income providers such as pension schemes or life insurance companies.


Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 982
Author(s):  
Yujuan Huang ◽  
Jing Li ◽  
Hengyu Liu ◽  
Wenguang Yu

This paper considers the estimation of ruin probability in an insurance risk model with stochastic premium income. We first show that the ruin probability can be approximated by the complex Fourier series (CFS) expansion method. Then, we construct a nonparametric estimator of the ruin probability and analyze its convergence. Numerical examples are also provided to show the efficiency of our method when the sample size is finite.


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