Effects of China’s “limited entertainment order” policy on program diversity: an analysis based on panel threshold model

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Jingwei Cheng ◽  
Chen Wu ◽  
Jianyu Chi
2020 ◽  
Vol 75 (3) ◽  
pp. 204-213
Author(s):  
Varvara A. Ryabkova ◽  
Leonid P. Churilov ◽  
Yehuda Shoenfeld

The pathogenesis of autoimmune diseases is very complex and multi-factorial. The concept of Mosaics of Autoimmunity was introduced to the scientific community 30 years ago by Y. Shoenfeld and D.A. Isenberg, and since then new tiles to the puzzle are continuously added. This concept specifies general pathological ideas about the multifactorial threshold model for polygenic inheritance with a threshold effect by the action of a number of external causal factors as applied to the field of autoimmunology. Among the external factors that can excessively stimulate the immune system, contributing to the development of autoimmune reactions, researchers are particularly interested in chemical substances, which are widely used in pharmacology and medicine. In this review we highlight the autoimmune dynamics i.e. a multistep pathogenesis of autoimmune diseases and the subsequent development of lymphoma in some cases. In this context several issues are addressed namely, genetic basis of autoimmunity; environmental immunostimulatory risk factors; gene/environmental interaction; pre-clinical autoimmunity with the presence of autoantibodies; and the mechanisms, underlying lymphomagenesis in autoimmune pathology. We believe that understanding the common model of the pathogenesis of autoimmune diseases is the first step to their successful management.


2020 ◽  
Vol 89 ◽  
pp. 65-74
Author(s):  
A. G. Zavorotnyy ◽  

Introduction. Operation of radiation hazardous facilities is a reality of the modern world, and the future of the world economy is impossible without the development of nuclear and radiation technologies. At the same time, the widespread use of atomic energy puts forward an important and responsible task of ensuring the safety of the population and the environment in conditions of an increased risk of exposure to ionizing radiation and radioactive substances. In accordance with clause 3.2.1 of the "Radiation Safety Standards NRB-99/2009", the planned increased exposure of persons involved in emergency rescue operations related to the elimination of the consequences of radiation accidents is allowed for men, as a rule, over 30 years old only with their voluntary written consent, after informing about possible radiation doses and health risks. Increased exposure refers to exposure in excess of the basic dose limits under controlled (normal) operating conditions of radiation sources. Goals and objectives. The aim of the study is to increase the functionality of emergency services and fire and rescue subdivisions to perform tasks as intended in the elimination of radiation accidents. The tasks include the construction and substantiation of a model that allows converting the risks of deterministic effects into stochastic effects risks. Methods. When calculating the probability of output of stochastic and deterministic effects depending on the radiation dose and developing a threshold quadratic model, the least squares method and the probabilistic-statistical method were used. Results and discussion. The article shows that a linear non-threshold model of the interaction of radiation with matter greatly overestimates the risk of a stochastic effect emerging at doses of radiation. For example, this overestimation is 8,13 at a dose of D = 0,2 Sv/year. In this regard, a threshold quadratic model has been developed and proposed to be replaced by a threshold quadratic model, which makes it possible to increase the planned irradiation of personnel of emergency services and fire and rescue units during the elimination of radiation accidents in an effective dose from 0,2 Sv to 0,57 Sv, moreover, the probability of emergence of stochastic effects P2 = 0,0084 remains the same for both models. Conclusions. An increase in the maximum permissible dose of radiation for personnel of emergency services and fire and rescue units from 0,2 Sv/year to 0,5 Sv/year will make it possible to increase the functionality of the emergency services and fire and rescue units to perform tasks as intended by 2,5 times when elimination of radiation accidents. For example, the scope of rescue operations may be increased from 100 %, performed at a dose of D = 0,2 Sv/year, to 250 %, performed at a dose of D = 0,5 Sv/year. Key words: emergency services, fire and rescue units, radiation accidents, irradiation, linear no-threshold model, threshold quadratic model.


2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandeep R. Chandukala ◽  
S. Long-Tolbert ◽  
Greg M. Allenby
Keyword(s):  

Genetics ◽  
2000 ◽  
Vol 155 (3) ◽  
pp. 1391-1403
Author(s):  
Nengjun Yi ◽  
Shizhong Xu

Abstract A complex binary trait is a character that has a dichotomous expression but with a polygenic genetic background. Mapping quantitative trait loci (QTL) for such traits is difficult because of the discrete nature and the reduced variation in the phenotypic distribution. Bayesian statistics are proved to be a powerful tool for solving complicated genetic problems, such as multiple QTL with nonadditive effects, and have been successfully applied to QTL mapping for continuous traits. In this study, we show that Bayesian statistics are particularly useful for mapping QTL for complex binary traits. We model the binary trait under the classical threshold model of quantitative genetics. The Bayesian mapping statistics are developed on the basis of the idea of data augmentation. This treatment allows an easy way to generate the value of a hypothetical underlying variable (called the liability) and a threshold, which in turn allow the use of existing Bayesian statistics. The reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is used to simulate the posterior samples of all unknowns, including the number of QTL, the locations and effects of identified QTL, genotypes of each individual at both the QTL and markers, and eventually the liability of each individual. The Bayesian mapping ends with an estimation of the joint posterior distribution of the number of QTL and the locations and effects of the identified QTL. Utilities of the method are demonstrated using a simulated outbred full-sib family. A computer program written in FORTRAN language is freely available on request.


Metabolites ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 6
Author(s):  
Eun Pyo Hong ◽  
Seong Gu Heo ◽  
Ji Wan Park

Personalized risk prediction for diabetic cardiovascular disease (DCVD) is at the core of precision medicine in type 2 diabetes (T2D). We first identified three marker sets consisting of 15, 47, and 231 tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms (tSNPs) associated with DCVD using a linear mixed model in 2378 T2D patients obtained from four population-based Korean cohorts. Using the genetic variants with even modest effects on phenotypic variance, we observed improved risk stratification accuracy beyond traditional risk factors (AUC, 0.63 to 0.97). With a cutoff point of 0.21, the discrete genetic liability threshold model consisting of 231 SNPs (GLT231) correctly classified 87.7% of 2378 T2D patients as high or low risk of DCVD. For the same set of SNP markers, the GLT and polygenic risk score (PRS) models showed similar predictive performance, and we observed consistency between the GLT and PRS models in that the model based on a larger number of SNP markers showed much-improved predictability. In silico gene expression analysis, additional information was provided on the functional role of the genes identified in this study. In particular, HDAC4, CDKN2B, CELSR2, and MRAS appear to be major hubs in the functional gene network for DCVD. The proposed risk prediction approach based on the liability threshold model may help identify T2D patients at high CVD risk in East Asian populations with further external validations.


Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (10) ◽  
pp. 3519
Author(s):  
Yanbing Bai ◽  
Ning Ma ◽  
Shengwang Meng

The largest possible earthquake magnitude based on geographical characteristics for a selected return period is required in earthquake engineering, disaster management, and insurance. Ground-based observations combined with statistical analyses may offer new insights into earthquake prediction. In this study, to investigate the seismic characteristics of different geographical regions in detail, clustering was used to provide earthquake zoning for Mainland China based on the geographical features of earthquake events. In combination with geospatial methods, statistical extreme value models and the right-truncated Gutenberg–Richter model were used to analyze the earthquake magnitudes of Mainland China under both clustering and non-clustering. The results demonstrate that the right-truncated peaks-over-threshold model is the relatively optimal statistical model compared with classical extreme value theory models, the estimated return level of which is very close to that of the geographical-based right-truncated Gutenberg–Richter model. Such statistical models can provide a quantitative analysis of the probability of future earthquake risks in China, and geographical information can be integrated to locate the earthquake risk accurately.


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