scholarly journals Nonlinear effects of exchange rate changes on the South African bilateral trade balance

2017 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 350-363
Author(s):  
Bernard Njindan Iyke ◽  
Sin-Yu Ho
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
South African ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Nonlinear Effects ◽  
The South ◽  
Bilateral Trade Balance ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes

scholarly journals FENOMENA KURVA J PADA NERACA PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA DENGAN ENAM NEGARA MITRA DAGANG UTAMA

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 10
Author(s):  
Anggraeni Tri Hapsari ◽  
Akhmad Syakir Kurnia
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Long Run ◽  
J Curve ◽  
Bilateral Trade Balance ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Balance Of Trade ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Whether a J curve phenomenon exists or not on the balance of trade has been an interest for empirical investigation in international economics. The phenomenon is typically associated with the response of the balance of trade to the exchange rate dynamics. Since a country has different trade features with different trading partners, the trade balances adjustment to the exchange rate dynamics should be seen as a head to head phenomenon. This paper investigates the effect of real effective exchange rate (REER) on the bilateral trade balance between Indonesia and its six major trading partners, namely Japan, China, Singapore, United States, South Korea and India on a quarterly basis over the period 1995.1 to 2013.4. The short run and the long run effect of the REER on the balance of trade is expected to be captured using error correction model (ECM) and vector error correction model (VECM). Subsequently, impulse response function is used to trace out the behavior of the bilateral trade balance in response to the REER shock whereas forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD) is used to decay the effect of innovation variables in the system. The result indicates that in the long run a J curve phenomenon appears on the bilateral trade balance between Indonesia and Japan, China, Singapore as well as South Korea. In the short run, a J curve phenomenon is seen on the bilateral trade balance between Indonesia and China as well as Singapore. This confirms that a J curve is a head to head phenomenon that has correlation with the trade features. Thus, the correction mechanism to the trade balance in response to the exchange rate shock (i.e. exchange rate market intervention) should count trade features as a consideration

The Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on the Trade Balance of Singapore

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 20170055
Author(s):  
Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee ◽  
Hanafiah Harvey
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Research Direction ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes

Previous studies that tested the short-run and long-run effects of exchange rate changes on trade balances assumed that the effects are symmetric. The more recent research direction has now changed to investigating the possibility of asymmetric effects. In this paper, we assess the short-run and long-run effects of exchange rate changes on the bilateral trade balances of Singapore with her 11 partners. By applying the nonlinear ARDL approach, which separates appreciations from depreciations, we find that exchange rate changes have short-run asymmetric effects in most models. The short-run effects, however, lasted into the long run in a few models. In the long run, while depreciation improves Singapore’s trade balance with the U.S., it hurts it with Malaysia and China. These three partners account for almost 50 % of Singapore’s trade.

Bilateral Trade Balance, Exchange Rates, and Income: Evidence from Malaysia

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 1850183 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed B. Yusoff
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
The United States ◽  
Bilateral Exchange ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Bilateral Trade Balance ◽  
The Usa

This study attempts to examine the effects of real bilateral exchange rates on Malaysia's bilateral trade balances with its three major trading partners: the USA, Japan, and Singapore. The results suggest that the bilateral trade balance, real exchange rate, domestic and foreign incomes are cointegrated. In the long-run, Malaysia's bilateral trade balances are found to be responsive to the changes of bilateral exchange rate in the cases of the USA and Singapore but irresponsive for Japan. There is a clear evidence of the J-curve effect only in the case of Malaysia's trade balance with the United States. The results also indicate that devaluation tends to be recessionary. The findings suggest that Malaysia could use undervalued exchange rate strategy to improve its trade balances with the United States and Singapore but not Japan.

scholarly journals The relationship between the exchange rate and the trade balance in South Africa

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 299-314 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lebogang Chiloane ◽  
Marinda Pretorius ◽  
Ilse Botha
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
South African ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
The South ◽  
Long Run ◽  
J Curve ◽  
Manufacturing Trade

The purpose of this paper is to test the existence of the J-curve effect and to show whether the Marshall–Lerner condition holds in the South African manufacturing sector. Using quarterly data from 1995 to 2010, the study uses the vector error correction modelling technique as well as impulse response functions to attain the research objectives. The results show that a long-run equilibrium relationship exists between the manufacturing trade balance and the three explanatory variables: real effective exchange rate, real domestic and foreign income levels. Overall, the results show that a depreciation in the domestic currency results in a deterioration in the manufacturing trade balance in the short run, and that this is followed by an improvement in the long run. The study finds evidence of the existence of the J-curve in the South African manufacturing sector. The long-run dynamics suggest that the Marshall–Lerner condition holds.

scholarly journals Real exchange rate and trade balance in Turkey: Evidence from heterogeneous panel data

2020 ◽  
pp. 7-7
Author(s):  
Ahmet Kaya
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Income Elasticity ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Common Correlated Effects ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Heterogeneous Panel

In this study, the effect of real exchange rate on bilateral trade balance between Turkey and its 25 main trade partners is investigated for the period of 1996 - 2015 with heterogeneous panel data techniques. Trade balance model is estimated by using Mean Group (MG) estimator, which allows parameter heterogeneity, Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCEMG), and Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimators, which both allow cross-section dependency and heterogeneity. Results indicate that the real exchange rate elasticity of the trade balance ranges between -0.40 and -0.45 and Marshall-Lerner (ML) condition is valid for Turkey. According to the results, the foreign income elasticity of trade balance ranges between 1.54 and 2.84, while for domestic income elasticity, it is found between -0.75 and -1.38. Country-specific results show that ML condition is valid for the USA, Belgium, Spain, Switzerland, Romania, and Russia at the bilateral level according to both CCEMG and AMG estimators.

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