scholarly journals The relationship between the exchange rate and the trade balance in South Africa

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 299-314 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lebogang Chiloane ◽  
Marinda Pretorius ◽  
Ilse Botha
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
South African ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
The South ◽  
Long Run ◽  
J Curve ◽  
Manufacturing Trade

The purpose of this paper is to test the existence of the J-curve effect and to show whether the Marshall–Lerner condition holds in the South African manufacturing sector. Using quarterly data from 1995 to 2010, the study uses the vector error correction modelling technique as well as impulse response functions to attain the research objectives. The results show that a long-run equilibrium relationship exists between the manufacturing trade balance and the three explanatory variables: real effective exchange rate, real domestic and foreign income levels. Overall, the results show that a depreciation in the domestic currency results in a deterioration in the manufacturing trade balance in the short run, and that this is followed by an improvement in the long run. The study finds evidence of the existence of the J-curve in the South African manufacturing sector. The long-run dynamics suggest that the Marshall–Lerner condition holds.

scholarly journals An Empirical Time Series Econometric Study of the J-curve Effect of Exchange Rate in Trade Balance between China and the US

2020 ◽  
pp. 35-46
Author(s):  
Ming-Lu Wu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Quarterly Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
J Curve ◽  
The Us ◽  
Curve Effect ◽  
Short Run

Background and Aims: With the tensed relationship between China and the US, investigating the trade relationship between the two big countries has received more attention than before. This paper is just towards that direction to empirically examine the relationship between China’s real effective exchange rate (REER) and trade balance with the US in both the long-run and short-run, which may exhibit the J-curve effect – currency depreciation deteriorates trade balance in the short-run but promotes trade balance in the long-run – in China’s international trade with the US. Data and Methodology: Quarterly data on China’s REER, trade balance and gross domestic product (GDP, for income) and the US GDP from 2001 to 2017 are retrieved from relevant official websites for the current study. Unit-root test is first conducted on each modeling variable and its first difference to examine the stationarity of the variables. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach with error-correction modeling (ECM) cointegration is then adopted to test the popular hypothesis of J-curve effect using the available quarterly data. Results and Conclusion: The modeling results reject the J-curve effect in the short-run but show a long-lasting positive effect of Chinese yuan’s depreciation in China’s trade balance with the US. Also, the US GDP has a positive and much stronger effect than Chinese GDP on China’s trade balance. As such, it is suggested that China should maintain a good relationship with the US and a stable exchange rate for long-run trade balance and economic growth at an appropriate level or rate.

scholarly journals Exchange rate and trade balance: J-curve effect

2010 ◽  
Vol 57 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pavle Petrovic ◽  
Mirjana Gligoric
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
J Curve ◽  
Curve Effect ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Current Account Adjustments

This paper shows that exchange rate depreciation in Serbia improves trade balance in the long run, while giving rise to a J-curve effect in the short run. These results add to the already existent empirical evidence for a diverse set of other economies. Both Johansen's and autoregressive distributed lag approach are respectively used giving similar long-run estimates showing that real depreciation improves trade balance. Corresponding errorcorrection models as well as impulse response functions indicate that, following currency depreciation, trade balance first deteriorates before it later improves, i.e. exhibiting the J-curve pattern. These results are relevant for policy making both in Serbia and in a number of other emerging Europe countries as they face major current account adjustments after BoP crises of 2009.

scholarly journals The exchange rate, the trade balance and the J-curve effect in South Africa

2014 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 601-608 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Schaling ◽  
Alain Kabundi
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Long Run ◽  
J Curve ◽  
Curve Effect ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

We find that for the period 1994-2011 there is robust statistical evidence that, in the long run, net exports are boosted by a weaker real effective exchange rate. However, this effect does not hold in the short run. We thus find empirical evidence supporting the J-curve effect for South Africa.

scholarly journals Currency Depreciation, Trade Balance and Intra-Industry Trade Interactions in Turkey’s OECD Trade

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet Demiral
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Adjustment Process ◽  
Industry Trade ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

<p>This study re-examines the determinants of Turkey’s trade balance in its manufactures trade with 33 OECD-member countries for the short-run and the long-run. Unlike other studies, in the relationships we also control the moderating effects of the availability of import substitutes proxied by intra-industry trade. We analyze quarterly aggregated time-series data of the period spanning from 1998.QI to 2015.QIII, following the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to the cointegration and the error correction modeling. Estimation results reveal that real effective exchange rate, together with domestic and foreign incomes are still among the core determinants of Turkey’s trade balance in the manufacturing sectors. There is no significant impact of domestic final oil prices that also include all the taxes on gasoline. The trade balance depends on domestic income negatively and the aggregated income of the OECD countries positively. The finding that real depreciation of Turkish lira against to those of Turkey’s OECD trade partners improves trade balance in both the short-run and the long-run, indicates no evidence of J-curve adjustment process. Unsurprisingly, the intra-industry trade seems to be an important factor that moderates the elasticities of trade balance to its determinants, especially to real effective exchange rate and domestic income. Overall results underline the importance of import-substitution capability besides the export-oriented production to ease the longstanding large trade deficits for Turkey.</p><strong></strong>

scholarly journals Analysis of the Keynesian Theory of Employment and Sectoral Job Creation: The Case of the South African Manufacturing Sector

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 123-143
Author(s):  
Thomas Habanabakize ◽  
Paul-Francois Muzindutsi
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Job Creation ◽  
The South ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Integration Approach ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Investment Spending

Abstract The manufacturing sector is one of the backbones of the South African economy, and yet is one of the economic sectors facing challenges in job creation. This study analysed the long-run and short-run effects of aggregate expenditure components on job creation in the South African manufacturing sector. A Vector Autoregressive (VAR) with Johansen co-integration approach was used to analyse quarterly data from 1994 to 2015. The findings are that there is a long-run relationship between aggregate expenditure and job creation in the South African manufacturing sector, with government and investment spending being the major components of aggregate expenditure that create jobs in the South African manufacturing sector. Conversely, consumption spending destroys jobs in the manufacturing sector, while net exports have no significant effect on job creation. The short-run relationship between variables was not significant. Recommendations are that more effort should be put into investment spending, and government should spend more on investment than on consumption spending - in order to increase job creation in the manufacturing sector.

scholarly journals Different Approaches to Merchandise Trade Balance in Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (Number 2) ◽  
pp. 19-30
Author(s):  
Yousuf Aboya ◽  
Arsalan Hussain ◽  
Rohail Hassan ◽  
Hassan Mujtaba Nawaz Saleem ◽  
Aamir Hussain Siddiqui
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Merchandise Trade ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

The current study empirically examines the three major approaches to trade balance for Pakistan by utilizing the yearly data from 1972 to 2016. Monetary, elasticity, and absorption approaches were tested by developing a model that incorporates all three approaches. The significant contribution of the study is that it uses only the merchandise trade deficit account, which includes trade of only physical goods. The study used time-series data; therefore, variables have been tested for the stationarity, and it is found that there is a combination of I (0) and I (1) variables, so ARDL bounds testing approach to co-integration has been employed to find the short run and long run associations among the variables. The bound test results discovered that there is a presence of stable long-term association among the merchandise trade deficit account, real broad money supply, real effective exchange rate, and real domestic absorption. The results further revealed that merchandise trade discrepancy is determined purely by the real effective exchange rate, which specifies that the exchange rate's devaluation increases the deficit in the long run whereas in the short-run increase in domestic absorption decreases the merchandise trade deficit.

scholarly journals The Determinants of Pakistan’s Trade Balance: An ARDL Cointegration Approach

2010 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Waliullah Waliullah ◽  
Mehmood Khan Kakar ◽  
Rehmatullah Kakar ◽  
Wakeel Khan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run

This article is an attempt to examine the short and long-run relationship between the trade balance, income, money supply, and real exchange rate in the case of Pakistan’s economy. Income and money variables are included in the model in order to examine the monetary and absorption approaches to the balance of payments, while the real exchange rate is used to evaluate the conventional approach of elasticities (Marshall Lerner condition). The bounds testing approach to cointegration and error correction models, developed within an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework is applied to annual data for the period 1970 to 2005 in order to investigate whether a long-run equilibrium relationship exists between the trade balance and its determinants. Additionally, variance decompositions (VDCs) and impulse response functions (IRFs) are used to draw further inferences. The result of the bounds test indicates that there is a stable long-run relationship between the trade balance and income, money supply, and exchange rate variables. The estimated results show that exchange rate depreciation is positively related to the trade balance in the long and short run, consistent with the Marshall Lerner condition. The results provide strong evidence that money supply and income play a strong role in determining the behavior of the trade balance. The exchange rate regime can help improve the trade balance but will have a weaker influence than growth and monetary policy.

scholarly journals Aggregation, asymmetry, and common factors for Bangladesh’s exchange rate–trade balance relation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rabeya Khatoon ◽  
Md Emran Hasan ◽  
Md Wahid Ferdous Ibon ◽  
Shahidul Islam ◽  
Jeenat Mehareen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Support ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Aggregate Analysis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
J Curve ◽  
Rate Relationship

AbstractWe present an application of the recent CS-ARDL methodology in the context of a country’s trade balance–exchange rate relationship. The trade balance is expected to deteriorate first before improving in response to currency depreciation and vice versa, widely known as the J-curve effect satisfying the Marshall–Lerner condition in the long run. Combining bilateral and aggregate analysis in one setting by constructing specific panel data with one reference country, we find that aggregate analysis is sensitive to our allowance for heterogeneity. Estimates using the aggregate time series data show evidence favoring the J-curve relation, whereas the aggregate analysis resulting from the panel time series data shows that currency appreciation improves trade balance in Bangladesh in the long run, which goes against the Marshall–Lerner condition. With the reference of the existing commodity-level literature, we argue that this atypical scenario lines with the realities of a ‘small’ economy like Bangladesh, where her exporters attempt to maintain their market share with some government support. The study provides essential policy suggestions by identifying the significant contributors to Bangladesh’s trade balance–exchange rate relationship: China, Japan, and Singapore.

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