An integrated approach of GIS and hybrid intelligence techniques applied for flood risk modeling

Abstract. Conventional flood risk methods typically focus on estimation at a single location, which can be inadequate for civil infrastructure systems such as road or railway infrastructure. This is because rainfall extremes are spatially dependent; to understand overall system risk, it is necessary to assess the interconnected elements of the system jointly. For example, when designing evacuation routes it is necessary to understand the risk of one part of the system failing given that another region is flooded or exceeds the level at which evacuation becomes necessary. Similarly, failure of any single part of a road section (e.g., a flooded river crossing) may lead to the wider system's failure (i.e., the entire road becomes inoperable). This study demonstrates a spatially dependent intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) framework that can be used to estimate flood risk across multiple catchments, accounting for dependence both in space and across different critical storm durations. The framework is demonstrated via a case study of a highway upgrade comprising five river crossings. The results show substantial differences in conditional and unconditional design flow estimates, highlighting the importance of taking an integrated approach. There is also a reduction in the estimated failure probability of the overall system compared with the case where each river crossing is treated independently. The results demonstrate the potential uses of spatially dependent intensity–duration–frequency methods and suggest the need for more conservative design estimates to take into account conditional risks.

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Water for all: Towards an integrated approach to wetland conservation and flood risk reduction in a lowland catchment in Scotland

Journal of Environmental Management ◽

10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.05.135 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 246 ◽

pp. 881-896 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Andrew Vinten ◽

Laure Kuhfuss ◽

Orla Shortall ◽

Jenni Stockan ◽

Adekunle Ibiyemi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Reduction ◽

Flood Risk ◽

Integrated Approach ◽

Wetland Conservation ◽

Flood Risk Reduction

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An Integrated Approach for Assessing Flood Risk in Historic City Centres

Water ◽

10.3390/w12061648 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (6) ◽

pp. 1648 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Tiago M. Ferreira ◽

Pedro P. Santos

Keyword(s):

Flood Risk ◽

Flood Hazard ◽

Integrated Approach ◽

Momentum Equation ◽

City Centre ◽

Risk Matrix ◽

Hazard Scenario ◽

The Individual ◽

Historic City ◽

City Centres

Historic city centres near watercourses are a specific type of urban area that are particularly vulnerable to flooding. In this study, we present a new methodology of flood risk assessment that crosses hazard and physical vulnerability information. We have selected the Historic City Centre of Guimarães (Portugal), a UNESCO Heritage Site, for developing and testing the defined methodology. The flood hazard scenario was obtained through the hydrologic–hydraulic modelling of peak flows with a 100-year return period, which provided flood extent, depths, and velocities. A decomposition of the momentum equation, using depth and velocity, allowed reaching a final hazard score. Flood vulnerability was assessed through combining an exposure component and a sensitivity component, from field-collected data regarding wall orientation, heritage status, age, number of storeys, condition, and material of buildings. By combining the results of the hazard and vulnerability modules in a risk-matrix, three qualitative levels of flood risk were defined. The individual and crossed analysis of results proved to be complementary. On one hand, it allows the identification of the more relevant risk factors—from the hazard or vulnerability modules. On the other hand, the risk-matrix identified other buildings with a high risk that otherwise would remain unnoticed to risk managers.

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An Integrated Approach for Flood Risk Management

Real-Time and Deliberative Decision Making - NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security ◽

10.1007/978-1-4020-9026-4_6 ◽

2009 ◽

pp. 91-101 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

J. Ganoulis

Keyword(s):

Risk Management ◽

Flood Risk ◽

Integrated Approach ◽

Flood Risk Management

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Pluvial flood catastrophe modelling: a trans-disciplinary approach.

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-1333 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Konstantinos Karagiorgos ◽

Daniel Knos ◽

Jan Haas ◽

Sven Halldin ◽

Barbara Blumenthal ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Management ◽

Flood Risk ◽

Urban Areas ◽

Insurance Industry ◽

Integrated Approach ◽

Effective Prevention ◽

The Public ◽

Modelling Framework ◽

Catastrophe Modelling ◽

The Impact

Pluvial floods are one of the most significant natural hazards in Europe causing severe damage to urban areas. Following the projected increase in extreme precipitation and the ongoing urbanization, these events play an important role in the ongoing flood risk management discussion and provoke serious risk to the public as well as to the insurance sector. However, this type of flood, remains a poorly documented phenomenon. To address this gap, Swedish Pluvial Modelling Analysis and Safety Handling (SPLASH) project aims to develop new methods and types of data that improve the possibility to value flood risk in Swedish municipalities by collaboration between different disciplines.SPLASH project allows to investigating the impact of heavy precipitation along the entire risk modelling chain, ultimate needed for effective prevention. This study presents a pluvial flood catastrophe modelling framework to identify and assess hazard, exposure and vulnerability in urban context. An integrated approach is adopted by incorporating &#8216;rainfall-damage&#8217; patterns, flood inundation modelling, vulnerability tools and risk management. The project is developed in the &#8216;OASIS Loss Modelling Framework&#8217; platform, jointly with end-users from the public sector and the insurance industry.The Swedish case study indicates that the framework presented can be considered as an important decision making tool, by establishing an area for collaboration between academia; insurance businesses and rescue services, to reduce long-term disaster risk in Sweden.

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A comparative analysis of property level flood mitigation behaviour in the regions of England

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-16099 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Marlies H Barendrecht ◽

Simon McCarthy ◽

Alberto Viglione

Keyword(s):

Flood Risk ◽

Additional Data ◽

Integrated Approach ◽

Flood Risk Management ◽

Flood Mitigation ◽

North West ◽

South West ◽

Property Owners ◽

The Relationship ◽

Hierarchical Beta

Even though there has been a move towards a more integrated approach to flood risk management, with a stronger focus on property level measures to reduce flood risk, the uptake of property level measures remains low. Experience has been found to influence the uptake of measures, but even property owners with experience do not always take measures to prepare for future flooding. In this paper we investigate the variations in the relationship between experience and preparedness (i.e. the uptake of property level measures) for the different regions of England. We use survey data collected among the population at risk in the years 1996 to 2004 and perform a hierarchical beta regression to determine the differences between the seven regions. We find that the South West and Southern regions have a higher increase in preparedness with increasing experience compared to other regions. In the Thames, Midlands and North West the preparedness increases less with increasing experience. Based on an analysis of additional data sources (e.g. surveys and maps of structural protection and population) we provide a possible explanation as to why the behaviour of property owners in these regions could be different.

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