Are real exchange rates more likely to be stationary during the fixed nominal exchange rate regimes?

2009 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gawon Yoon
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Exchange Rate Regimes ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate

scholarly journals Monetary Policy and the Predictability of Nominal Exchange Rates

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
M S Eichenbaum ◽  
B K Johannsen ◽  
S T Rebelo
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Medium Size ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rates

Abstract This article studies how the monetary policy regime affects the relative importance of nominal exchange rates and inflation rates in shaping the response of real exchange rates to shocks. We document two facts about inflation-targeting countries. First, the current real exchange rate predicts future changes in the nominal exchange rate. Second, the real exchange rate is a poor predictor of future inflation rates. We estimate a medium-size, open-economy DSGE model that accounts quantitatively for these facts as well as other empirical properties of real and nominal exchange rates. The key estimated shocks that drive the dynamics of exchange rates and their covariance with inflation are disturbances to the foreign demand for dollar-denominated bonds.

scholarly journals EXOGENOUS INTEREST RATE AND EXCHANGE RATE DYNAMICS UNDER ELASTIC EXPECTATIONS

2021 ◽  
Vol 80 (318) ◽  
pp. 3
Author(s):  
Franklin Serrano ◽  
Ricardo Summa ◽  
Gabriel Aidar
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Exchange Rate Regimes ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Dynamics ◽  
Policy Variable ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rates ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Short Run

<div class="WordSection1"><h1 align="center"><strong style="font-size: 10px;">ABSTRACT</strong></h1></div><p>A theory analyzing the short run dynamics of nominal exchange rates under exogenous interest rates and free imperfect international capital markets is presented. Introducing elastic exchange rate expectations leads to cumulative changes in the spot and forward exchange rates in the same direction. We find that free floating exchange rate regimes are intrinsically unstable, as the nominal exchange rate is an institutional or policy variable that has no ‘fundamental equilibrium’ level. Implications for monetary policy and exchange market interventions of this potential instability are derived. Our results help to explain both the empirical prevalence of dirty floating exchange rate regimes and some aspects of the uncovered interest parity ‘failure’.</p><p> </p><p align="center">TASA DE INTERÉS EXÓGENA Y DINÁMICA DEL TIPO DE CAMBIO CON EXPECTATIVAS ELÁSTICAS</p><p align="center"><strong>RESUMEN </strong></p><p>Presentamos un análisis teórico de la dinámica de corto plazo de los tipos de cambio nominales con tasas de interés exógenas y libres e imperfecta movilidad internacional de capitales. La introducción de expectativas de tipo de cambio elásticas conduce a variaciones acumulativas en los tipos de cambio <em>spot</em> y <em>forward</em> en la misma dirección. Los regímenes de tipo de cambio de flotación libre son intrínsicamente inestables, dado que el tipo de cambio nominal es una variable institucional o de política que no tiene un nivel de “equilibrio fundamental”. Derivamos implicaciones de esta inestabilidad potencial para la política monetaria y las intervenciones en los mercados cambiarios. Los resultados ayudan a explicar la prevalencia de tipos de cambio de flotación sucia y aspectos de la “falla” de la paridad de tasas de interés descubierta.</p>

scholarly journals Exchange rate regimes in the major Latin American countries since the 1950s: lessons from history

2012 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 157-188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberto Frenkel ◽  
Martín Rapetti
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Exchange Rate Regimes ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Macroeconomic Performance ◽  
The 1950S ◽  
Nominal Anchor ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Latin American Countries

AbstractThe paper analyses exchange rate regimes implemented by the major Latin American (LA) countries since the 1950s, with special attention to the period beginning in the 1970s. The aim is to evaluate the relationship between exchange rate regimes and macroeconomic performance. After an overview of the main trends followed by the major LA countries over the last 60 years, the paper focusses on regimes that were implemented (1) with stabilisation purposes (nominal anchor) and (2) with the aim of targeting competitive and stable real exchange rates. These sections analyse in greater detail some important links between exchange rate regimes and macroeconomic performance. The paper closes with an assessment of the experiences with exchange rate regimes in LA.

Exchange Rates and Nominal Interest Rates

2019 ◽  
pp. 126-135
Author(s):  
Harold L. Cole
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Regimes ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
The Real ◽  
Nominal Interest Rates ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Interest Parity

This chapter discusses exchanges and the different types of exchange rate regimes. It describes how exchange rates impact on real exchange rates, and how movements in the real exchange rate are associated with boom-bust cycles. It also discusses interest parity.

Real Exchange Rate Adjustment in and out of the Eurozone

2012 ◽  
Vol 102 (3) ◽  
pp. 179-185 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Berka ◽  
Michael B Devereux ◽  
Charles Engel
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Law Of One Price ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Currency Unions ◽  
Traded Goods ◽  
Rate Adjustment ◽  
Exchange Rate Movements

It is often suggested that currency unions unduly inhibit the efficient adjustment of real exchange rates. Recently, this has been seen as a key failure of the Eurozone. This paper presents evidence that throws doubt on this conclusion. Our evidence suggests that real exchange rate movement within the Eurozone was at least as compatible with efficient adjustment as the behavior of real exchange rates for the floating rate countries outside the Eurozone. This interpretation is consistent with a model in which nominal exchange rate movements give rise to persistent deviations from the law of one price in traded goods.

scholarly journals The performance of exchange rate regimes in three SADC countries: An overview

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 7-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernard Iyke ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Democratic Republic Of Congo ◽  
Exchange Rate Regimes ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Growth Dynamics ◽  
African Countries ◽  
The Impact

This paper provides an overview of the real exchange rate and economic growth dynamics in three low-income Southern African countries, namely: the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Malawi and Mozambique. Specifically, the paper investigates the nature of exchange rate regimes and the impact that they have on economic growth, as well as the movement of real exchange rates and real GDP from 1970—2010 in these countries. The paper identifies the following trends: Fixed exchange regimes were pursued from the 1960s until the late 1980s and early 1990s in these countries, which were growth-repressing; the countries pursued floating and managed-floating regimes from the 1990s to date, resulting in moderate-to-rapid economic growth. We conclude that liberalised exchange rates, which lead to undervalued currencies in these Southern African countries, were growth-enhancing.

Borders and Nominal Exchange Rates in Risk-Sharing

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 1238-1283
Author(s):  
Michael B Devereux ◽  
Viktoria V Hnatkovska
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Risk Sharing ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Border Effect ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Consumption Growth ◽  
Relative Consumption

Abstract Models of risk-sharing predict that relative consumption growth rates are positively related to changes in real exchange rates. We investigate this hypothesis using a new multicountry and multiregional data set. Within countries, we find evidence for risk-sharing: episodes of high relative regional consumption growth are associated with regional real exchange rate depreciation. Across countries, however, the association is reversed: relative consumption and real exchange rates are negatively correlated. We define this reversal as a “border” effect. We find the border effect and show that it accounts for over half of the deviations from full risk-sharing. Since cross–border real exchange rates involve different currencies, it is natural to ask how much of the border effect is accounted for by movements in exchange rates. Our measures indicate that a large part of the border effect comes from nominal exchange rate fluctuations. We develop a simple open economy model that is consistent with the importance of nominal exchange rate variability in accounting for deviations from cross–country risk-sharing.

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