A WAR WITHOUT INFLATION: THE CASE OF ARGENTINA 1865–1870

ABSTRACT Although paper note issuance increased dramatically in Argentina during the Triple Alliance War, inflation was not significant. This occurred because only a fraction of the increase in paper bills led to an expansion of the money supply, the rest being currency substitution. On the other hand, an increase in the demand for money for transactions was generated by rapid economic growth.

FISCAL AFTERSHOCKS: TAXES AND CATASTROPHES IN CHILEAN HISTORY

ABSTRACT Socio-natural disasters remain underexplored events in economic history, even though they stress societies in several ways and are known for their relationship with institutional change. In this paper, we explore this issue showing that major earthquakes in Chile have become a window of opportunity for important fiscal reforms. Our findings indicate that there are two mechanisms to explain this relationship: first, reconstruction demands greater state expenditure and intervention; and second, the emergence of narratives that justify these reforms, such as patriotism and solidarity. However, data show that in the case of Chile, changes following disasters have had little impact on the overall tax structure of the country, and the historical preference for indirect taxes has been maintained, with limited power to impose taxes on high-income groups.

LATE AND UNEQUAL: MEASURING ENROLMENTS AND RETENTION IN BRAZILIAN EDUCATION, 1933-2010

ABSTRACT This paper presents a new dataset of enrolment rates and grade distribution ratios (GDR) in Brazil between 1933 and 2010, in addition to enrolment rates and GDR of Brazilian states from 1955 to 2010. To our knowledge, there are no previous estimates of enrolment rates by states for such a long period in Brazil. Enrolment rates and GDR in northern and north-eastern states were meagre and comparable to the lowest Latin American performers, and even the most advanced Brazilian states lagged behind the early leaders of the region, such as Argentina and Uruguay, until the turn of the century. Given a certain enrolment rate, Brazilian states were expected to present lower GDR compared to Latin American countries on average.

TRAYECTORIAS DE MODERNIZACIÓN INDUSTRIAL Y CAMBIO ESTRUCTURAL EN AMÉRICA LATINA, 1970–2017

RESUMEN Este artículo analiza las trayectorias de modernización estructural para la industria de ocho países latinoamericanos (Bolivia, Brasil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, México, Perú, Uruguay) desde 1970 hasta la fecha. Desde una perspectiva teórica estructuralista que explora las interacciones dinámicas entre el cambio estructural y el escalamiento tecnológico, se construye un índice de modernización. Los hallazgos muestran que el establecimiento de modelos económicos neoliberales en Latinoamérica a partir de los años ochenta, significó un punto de ruptura en estas trayectorias. Mientras la racionalización de procesos productivos por parte de las empresas implicó un desplazamiento del empleo en dirección de usos de baja productividad relativa, el desarrollo de industrias intensivas en capital e insertas en dinámicas globales, no impulsó la modernización estructural debido a la naturaleza de las tareas efectuadas. Los ejercicios permiten esbozar una primera tipología en términos de las carencias más apremiantes de cada caso.

AGRICULTURAL WORKERS’ STANDARD OF LIVING DURING CENTRAL CHILE'S AGRARIAN EXPANSION, CF. 1870-1930

ABSTRACT The purpose of this paper is to determine trends in the wages and living standards of male agricultural labourers in Central Chile during the agrarian expansion, c. 1870-1930. We found that nominal wages increased eightfold; this is relevant because wage labour became the main rural labour regime in this period. Nominal wages rose steadily from the early 1870s until 1910, and with significant fluctuations thereafter, before plummeting with the Great Depression. Real wages also increased, but only slightly. Furthermore, during certain short periods, agricultural labourers' real wages were similar to or higher than those of low-skilled urban workers. However, the persistent gap between agricultural and non-agricultural wages was one of the causal factors of the outmigration of rural workers.

FISCAL PESSIMISM IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE: TOCQUEVILLE'S CROSS REVISITED

ABSTRACT This paper explores Alexis de Tocqueville's thought on fiscal political economy as a forerunner of the modern school of preference falsification and rational irrationality in economic decision making. A good part of the literature has misrepresented Tocqueville as an unconditional optimist regarding the future of fiscal moderation under democracy. Yet, although he initially shared the cautious optimism of most classical economists with respect to taxes under extended suffrage, Tocqueville's view turned more pessimistic in the second volume of his Democracy in America. Universal enfranchisement and democratic governments would lead to higher taxes, more intense income redistribution and government control. Under democracy, the continuous search for unconditional equality would eventually jeopardise liberty and economic growth.