Borders and Nominal Exchange Rates in Risk-Sharing

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 1238-1283
Author(s):  
Michael B Devereux ◽  
Viktoria V Hnatkovska
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Risk Sharing ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Border Effect ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Consumption Growth ◽  
Relative Consumption

Abstract Models of risk-sharing predict that relative consumption growth rates are positively related to changes in real exchange rates. We investigate this hypothesis using a new multicountry and multiregional data set. Within countries, we find evidence for risk-sharing: episodes of high relative regional consumption growth are associated with regional real exchange rate depreciation. Across countries, however, the association is reversed: relative consumption and real exchange rates are negatively correlated. We define this reversal as a “border” effect. We find the border effect and show that it accounts for over half of the deviations from full risk-sharing. Since cross–border real exchange rates involve different currencies, it is natural to ask how much of the border effect is accounted for by movements in exchange rates. Our measures indicate that a large part of the border effect comes from nominal exchange rate fluctuations. We develop a simple open economy model that is consistent with the importance of nominal exchange rate variability in accounting for deviations from cross–country risk-sharing.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy and the Predictability of Nominal Exchange Rates

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
M S Eichenbaum ◽  
B K Johannsen ◽  
S T Rebelo
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Medium Size ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rates

Abstract This article studies how the monetary policy regime affects the relative importance of nominal exchange rates and inflation rates in shaping the response of real exchange rates to shocks. We document two facts about inflation-targeting countries. First, the current real exchange rate predicts future changes in the nominal exchange rate. Second, the real exchange rate is a poor predictor of future inflation rates. We estimate a medium-size, open-economy DSGE model that accounts quantitatively for these facts as well as other empirical properties of real and nominal exchange rates. The key estimated shocks that drive the dynamics of exchange rates and their covariance with inflation are disturbances to the foreign demand for dollar-denominated bonds.

Exchange rate effects on agricultural exports

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 600-621
Author(s):  
Rui Mao
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Food Industry ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Agricultural Exports ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Rate Effects

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to extend empirical investigations of the relationship between real exchange rates and agricultural exports to the firm-product-country level with the use of disaggregated panel data of China’s food industry. In particular, the study aims to explore heterogeneities in the export response to real exchange rates across firms, destinations and products, as well as to differentiate responses on the intensive and extensive margins. Design/methodology/approach This paper utilizes a merged panel data set of firm-product-country level transaction records of China’s agricultural exports with firm-level survey data of the food industry. Panel regression models are constructed to identify empirical relationships. Findings Real appreciations are found to reduce export quantities and the probability to enter destination markets. These impacts are enhanced in 2005 when China unexpectedly depegged yuan from the USD. In addition, real appreciations in 2005 also reduced the yuan-denominated export price and increased firms’ probability to exit destination markets. Taking the exchange rate reform as a natural experiment, evidence suggests that the negative exchange rate effects on exports are robust to the endogeneity issue. Finally, heterogeneous export responses are identified with respect to firm productivities and ownerships, income levels and locations of destination markets, as well as product groups. Originality/value This paper provides first-hand evidence on how real exchange rates influence agricultural exports at the firm-product-country level. A featured contribution is that China’s exchange rate reform in 2005 is utilized to alleviate the typical concern of endogeneity. Findings may benefit policy makers, for example, by identifying firms most vulnerable to real appreciations.

Macroeconomics of the Euro

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Bergin
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Monetary Union ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Relative Price ◽  
Theoretical Research ◽  
Eurozone Crisis ◽  
Macroeconomic Adjustment ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rates

While it is a long-standing idea in international macroeconomic theory that flexible nominal exchange rates have the potential to facilitate adjustment in international relative prices, a monetary union necessarily forgoes this mechanism for facilitating macroeconomic adjustment among its regions. Twenty years of experience in the eurozone monetary union, including the eurozone crisis, have spurred new macroeconomic research on the costs of giving up nominal exchange rates as a tool of adjustment, and the possibility of alternative policies to promote macroeconomic adjustment. Empirical evidence paints a mixed picture regarding the usefulness of nominal exchange rate flexibility: In many historical settings, flexible nominal exchanges rates tend to create more relative price distortions than they have helped resolve; yet, in some contexts exchange rate devaluations can serve as a useful correction to severe relative price misalignments. Theoretical advances in studying open economy models either support the usefulness of exchange rate movements or find them irrelevant, depending on the specific characteristics of the model economy, including the particular specification of nominal rigidities, international openness in goods markets, and international financial integration. Yet in models that embody certain key aspects of the countries suffering the brunt of the eurozone crisis, such as over-borrowing and persistently high wages, it is found that nominal devaluation can be useful to prevent the type of excessive rise in unemployment observed. This theoretical research also raises alternative polices and mechanisms to substitute for nominal exchange rate adjustment. These policies include the standard fiscal tools of optimal currency area theory but also extend to a broader set of tools including import tariffs, export subsidies, and prudential taxes on capital flows. Certain combinations of these policies, labeled a “fiscal devaluation,” have been found in theory to replicate the effects of a currency devaluation in the context of a monetary union such as the eurozone. These theoretical developments are helpful for understanding the history of experiences in the eurozone, such as the eurozone crisis. They are also helpful for thinking about options for preventing such crises in the future.

Real Exchange Rate Adjustment in and out of the Eurozone

2012 ◽  
Vol 102 (3) ◽  
pp. 179-185 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Berka ◽  
Michael B Devereux ◽  
Charles Engel
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Law Of One Price ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Currency Unions ◽  
Traded Goods ◽  
Rate Adjustment ◽  
Exchange Rate Movements

It is often suggested that currency unions unduly inhibit the efficient adjustment of real exchange rates. Recently, this has been seen as a key failure of the Eurozone. This paper presents evidence that throws doubt on this conclusion. Our evidence suggests that real exchange rate movement within the Eurozone was at least as compatible with efficient adjustment as the behavior of real exchange rates for the floating rate countries outside the Eurozone. This interpretation is consistent with a model in which nominal exchange rate movements give rise to persistent deviations from the law of one price in traded goods.

INVESTMENT AND REAL EXCHANGE RATES IN STICKY PRICE MODELS

2012 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 195-234 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enrique Martínez-García ◽  
Jens Søndergaard
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Monetary Shocks ◽  
Productivity Shocks ◽  
Exogenous Shocks

This paper investigates how the inclusion of capital in the workhorse new open economy macro model affects its ability to generate volatile and persistent real exchange rates. We show that capital accumulation facilitates intertemporal consumption smoothing and significantly reduces the volatility of the real exchange rate. Nonetheless, monetary and investment-specific technology (IST) shocks still induce more real exchange rate volatility and less consumption comovement than productivity shocks (with or without capital). We find that endogenous persistence is particularly sensitive to the inertia of the monetary policy rule even with persistent exogenous shocks. However, irrespective of whether capital is present, productivity and IST shocks trigger highly persistent real exchange rates, whereas monetary shocks do not. Moreover, we point out that IST shocks tend to generate countercyclical real exchange rates—unlike productivity or monetary shocks—but have the counterfactual effect of also producing excessive investment volatility and countercyclical consumption.

scholarly journals The effect of real exchange rates and their volatilities on the selected agricultural commodity exports: A case study on Turkey, 1971–2010

2013 ◽  
Vol 59 (No. 5) ◽  
pp. 235-246 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Yanikkaya ◽  
H. Kaya ◽  
O.M. Kocturk
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Cross Sections ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This study investigates the effect of the exchange rate volatility and the real exchange rate on the bilateral agricultural exports flows of Turkey to 46 countries. A panel data set, which contains 46 cross-sections and 1840 observations, is used for exports of the selected agricultural commodities to countries from 1971 to 2010. Our empirical results based on a gravity equation show that while the exchange rate volatility does not exert a significant effect on the Turkish agricultural commodity exports, the real exchange rate has a statistically significant effect on the agricultural commodity export flows. Regardless of the region chosen, raisins and tobacco exports are very much sensitive to the real exchange rates. It means that any depreciation in the Turkish Lira leads to higher exports for these commodities. We have also some interesting results on other commodities. Exports of dried figs show no sensitivity to the exchange rate or its volatilities, except for the EU countries. For the full sample, exports of citrus, grape and hazelnuts increases as the TL depreciates. The sensitivity of hazelnut to the real exchange rates varies among regions.  

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