A probe mechanism to couple spatially explicit agents and landscape models in an integrated modelling framework

2006 ◽  
Vol 20 (9) ◽  
pp. 965-990 ◽  
Author(s):  
Phil A. Graniero ◽  
Vincent B. Robinson
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Kapitza ◽  
Pham Van Ha ◽  
Tom Kompas ◽  
Nick Golding ◽  
Natasha C. R. Cadenhead ◽  
...  

AbstractClimate change threatens biodiversity directly by influencing biophysical variables that drive species’ geographic distributions and indirectly through socio-economic changes that influence land use patterns, driven by global consumption, production and climate. To date, no detailed analyses have been produced that assess the relative importance of, or interaction between, these direct and indirect climate change impacts on biodiversity at large scales. Here, we apply a new integrated modelling framework to quantify the relative influence of biophysical and socio-economically mediated impacts on avian species in Vietnam and Australia and we find that socio-economically mediated impacts on suitable ranges are largely outweighed by biophysical impacts. However, by translating economic futures and shocks into spatially explicit predictions of biodiversity change, we now have the power to analyse in a consistent way outcomes for nature and people of any change to policy, regulation, trading conditions or consumption trend at any scale from sub-national to global.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Calum Brown ◽  
Ian Holman ◽  
Mark Rounsevell

Abstract. Land use models operating at regional to global scales are almost exclusively based on the single paradigm of economic optimisation. Models based on different paradigms are known to produce very different results, but these are not always equivalent or attributable to particular assumptions. In this study, we compare two pan-European land use models that are based on the same integrated modelling framework and utilise the same climatic and socio-economic scenarios, but which adopt fundamentally different model paradigms. One of these is a constrained optimising economic-equilibrium model and the other is a stochastic agent-based model. We run both models for a range of scenario combinations and compare their projections of spatial and aggregate land use change and ecosystem service supply. We find that the agent-based model projects more multifunctional and heterogeneous landscapes in most scenarios, providing a wider range of ecosystem services at landscape scales, as agents make individual, time-dependent decisions that reflect economic and non-economic motivations. This tendency also results in food shortages under certain scenario conditions. The optimisation model, in contrast, maintains food supply through intensification of agricultural production in the most profitable areas, sometimes at the expense of active management in large, contiguous parts of Europe. We relate the principal differences observed to underlying model assumptions, and hypothesise that optimisation may be appropriate in scenarios that allow for coherent political and economic control of land systems, but not in scenarios where economic and other scenario conditions prevent the normal functioning of price signals and responses. In these circumstances, agent-based modelling allows explicit consideration of behavioural processes, but in doing so provides a highly flexible account of land system development that is harder to link to underlying assumptions. We suggest that structured comparisons of parallel, transparent but paradigmatically distinct models are an important method for better understanding the potential scope and uncertainties of future land use change.


2022 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Springmann ◽  
F. Freund

AbstractAgricultural subsidies are an important factor for influencing food production and therefore part of a food system that is seen as neither healthy nor sustainable. Here we analyse options for reforming agricultural subsidies in line with health and climate-change objectives on one side, and economic objectives on the other. Using an integrated modelling framework including economic, environmental, and health assessments, we find that on a global scale several reform options could lead to reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and improvements in population health without reductions in economic welfare. Those include a repurposing of up to half of agricultural subsidies to support the production of foods with beneficial health and environmental characteristics, including fruits, vegetables, and other horticultural products, and combining such repurposing with a more equal distribution of subsidy payments globally. The findings suggest that reforming agricultural subsidy schemes based on health and climate-change objectives can be economically feasible and contribute to transitions towards healthy and sustainable food systems.


2013 ◽  
Vol 70 (4) ◽  
pp. 768-781 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Marchal ◽  
Youen Vermard

Abstract Marchal, P., and Vermard, Y. 2013. Evaluating deepwater fisheries management strategies using a mixed-fisheries and spatially explicit modelling framework. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 70: 768–781. We have used in this study a spatially explicit bioeconomic modelling framework to evaluate management strategies, building in both data-rich and data-limited harvest control rules (HCRs), for a mix of deepwater fleets and species, on which information is variable. The main focus was on blue ling (Molva dypterygia). For that species, both data-rich and data-limited HCRs were tested, while catch per unit effort (CPUE) was used either to tune stock assessments, or to directly trigger management action. There were only limited differences between the performances of both HCRs when blue ling biomass was initialized at the current level, but blue ling recovered more quickly with the data-rich HCR when its initial biomass was severely depleted. Both types of HCR lead, on average, to a long-term recovery of both blue ling and saithe (Pollachius virens) stocks, and some increase in overall profit. However, that improvement is not sufficient to guarantee sustainable exploitation with a high probability. Blue ling CPUE did not always adequately reflect trends in biomass, which mainly resulted from fleet dynamics, possibly in combination with density-dependence. The stock dynamics of roundnose grenadier (Coryphaenoides rupestris), black scabbardfish (Aphanopus carbo) and deepwater sharks (Centrophorus squamosus and Centroscymnus coelolepis) were little affected by the type of HCR chosen to manage blue ling.


2019 ◽  
Vol 53 ◽  
pp. 100968 ◽  
Author(s):  
George B. Arhonditsis ◽  
Alex Neumann ◽  
Yuko Shimoda ◽  
Dong-Kyun Kim ◽  
Feifei Dong ◽  
...  

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 610-623 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ioscani Jimenez del Val ◽  
Yuzhou Fan ◽  
Dietmar Weilguny

2007 ◽  
Vol 83 (1) ◽  
pp. 36-40 ◽  
Author(s):  
L A Venier ◽  
J L Pearce ◽  
B A Wintle ◽  
S A Bekessy

In this paper, we provide an overview of a project that we initiated to explore the utility of spatially-explicit metapopulation models linked to dynamic landscape models as a way of incorporating biological indicators into sustainable forest management. We developed models for three indicator species as case studies; brown creeper (Certhis americana), redbacked vole (Clethrionomys gapperi) and red-backed salamander (Plethodon cinereus) in a northern Ontario landscape. Results from the project to date suggest that there are significant advantages to models that are spatially-explicit and dynamic in their treatment of both populations and landscapes. Dynamic landscape metapopulation (DLMP) models allow a manager to track population change through time in response to a changing landscape and a fluctuating environment. These DLMP models may be used to predict the impact of current and alternative forest management strategies on population sizes of a suite of species chosen to indicate the health of forest ecosystems. Key words: biological indicators, population viability analysis, population modeling, dynamic landscape modeling, sustainable forest management, brown creeper, red-backed salamander, red-backed vole


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