Integration of time series forecasting in a dynamic decision support system for multiple reservoir management to conserve water sources

Author(s):  
Hamed Zamani Sabzi ◽  
Shalamu Abudu ◽  
Reza Alizadeh ◽  
Leili Soltanisehat ◽  
Naci Dilekli ◽  
...  
Author(s):  
Dimitris Ntalaperas ◽  
Iosif Angelidis ◽  
Giorgos Vafeiadis ◽  
Danai Vergeti

AbstractAs it has been already explained, it is very important for circular economies to minimize the wasted resources, as well as maximize the utilization value of the existing ones. To that end, experts can evaluate the materials and give an accurate estimation for both aspects. In that case, one might wonder, why is a decision support system employing machine learning necessary? While a fully automated machine learning model rarely surpasses a human’s ability in such tasks, there are several advantages in employing one. For starters, human experts will be more expensive to employ, rather than use an algorithm. One could claim that research towards developing an efficient and fully automated decision support system would end up costing more than employing actual human experts. In this instance, it is paramount to think long-term. Investing in this kind of research will create systems which are reusable, extensible, and scalable. This aspect alone more than remedies the initial costs. It is also important to observe that, if the number of wastes to be processed is more than the human experts can process in a timely fashion, they will not be able to provide their services, even if employment costs were not a concern. On the contrary, a machine learning model is perfectly capable of scaling to humongous amounts of data, conducting fast data processing and decision making. For power plants with particularly fast processing needs, an automated decision support system is an important asset. Moreover, a decision support system can predict the future based on past observations. While not always entirely spot on, it can give a future estimation about aspects such as energy required, amounts of wastes produced etc. in the future. Therefore, processing plants can plan of time and adapt to specific needs. A human expert can provide this as well to some degree, but on a much smaller scale. Especially in time series forecasting, it is interesting to note that, even if a decision support model does not predict exact values, it is highly likely to predict trends of the value increasing or decreasing in certain ranges. In the next sections, we are going to describe the four machine learning models that were developed and which compose the Decision Support System of FENIX. Section 8.1 describes how we predict the quality of the extracted materials based on features such as temperature, extruder speed, etc. Section 8.2 describes the process of extracting heuristic rules based on existing results. Section 8.3 describes how FENIX provides time-series forecasting to predict the future of a variable based on past observations. Finally, Sect. 8.4 describes the process of classifying materials based on images.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alberto Eugenio Tozzi ◽  
Francesco Gesualdo ◽  
Emanuele Urbani ◽  
Alessandro Sbenaglia ◽  
Roberto Ascione ◽  
...  

BACKGROUND Italy has experienced very severe consequences in terms of hospitalizations and deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic. Online decision support systems and self-triage applications have been used in several settings to supplement recommendations from health authorities to prevent and manage COVID-19. A digital Italian health tech startup developed a non-commercial online decision support system to assist individuals in managing their potential exposure to COVID-19 and interpret their symptoms, with a chat user interface, available since the early phases of the pandemic in Italy. OBJECTIVE To compare the trend of sessions in this online support decision system with that of COVID-19 cases reported by the national health surveillance system in Italy, from February 2020 to March 2021. METHODS We analyzed the number of sessions by users with a COVID-19 positive contact and by users with symptoms compatible with COVID-19, with the number of cases reported by the National surveillance system. To calculate the distance between the time series, we used the Dynamic Time Warping algorithm. We also applied Symbolic Aggregate approXimation (SAX) encoding to the time series in one-week periods and we calculated the Hamming distance between the SAX strings. We shifted time series of sessions from the online decision support system one week ahead and we measured the improvement in Hamming distance to verify the hypothesis that sessions in the online decision support systems anticipate the trends in cases reported to the official surveillance system. RESULTS We analyzed a total of 75,557 sessions in the online decision support system. Among them, 65,207 were sessions by users with symptoms, while 19,062 were by contacts with individuals with COVID-19. The highest number of sessions in the online decision support system was recorded in the early phases of the pandemic. A second peak was observed in October 2020 and a third peak was observed in March 2021, in parallel with the surge of reported cases. Peaks in sessions of the online decision support system preceded the surge of COVID-19 notified cases by approximately one week. The distance between sessions by users with COVID 19 contacts and reported cases calculated by dynamic time warping was 61.23 while the distance with sessions by users with symptoms was 93.72. As the time series of users with a COVID 19 contact was more consistent with the trend of confirmed cases, we applied Symbolic Aggregate approXimation encoding and we measured the Hamming distance between these two time series. After applying a one-week shift, the Hamming distance between the time series of sessions by users with a COVID-19 contact and reported cases improved from 0.49 to 0.46. We repeated the analysis restricting the time window to the time period between July and December 2020. The corresponding Hamming distance was 0.16 before shifting the time series, and improved to 0.08 after the time shift. CONCLUSIONS Temporal trends in the number of sessions of an online COVID-19 online decision support system may precede the trend of reported COVID-19 cases obtained through traditional surveillance. The trends of sessions by users with a contact with COVID-19 cases may better predict reported cases of COVID-19 than sessions by users with symptoms. Data from online decision support systems may represent a useful information source to supplement traditional surveillance and to support the identification of early warning signals in the COVID-19 pandemic.


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