A metapopulation model for zika virus disease transmission dynamics between linked communities

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
P M Tchepmo Djomegni ◽  
Gabriel Oluwamuyiwa Olupitan ◽  
Emile Franc D. Goufo
Keyword(s):  
Zika Virus ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Metapopulation Model

scholarly journals Hydrology-informed metapopulation modeling of liver fluke transmission in the Lawa Lake complex of northeast Thailand

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomás M. León ◽  
Vichian Plermkamon ◽  
Kittiwet Kuntiyawichai ◽  
Banchob Sripa ◽  
Robert C. Spear
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Liver Fluke ◽  
Pathogen Transmission ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Northeast Thailand ◽  
Metapopulation Model ◽  
Hydrologic Processes ◽  
Lake System ◽  
Hydrologic Data ◽  
Liver Flukes

AbstractWhile hydrologic processes are intuitively understood to influence transmission dynamics of water-related diseases, limited research exists that explicitly links hydrologic and infectious disease data. In the case of the life cycle of liver flukes, hydrology influences several transmission processes that mediate infection risk for multiple hosts. Northeast Thailand is a hotspot for liver fluke transmission and has strong seasonal flooding patterns. A metapopulation model linking local hydrologic processes with transmission of the liver fluke Opisthorchis viverrini in a lake system in northeast Thailand was developed and parameterized using infection data from 2008-2016. A rainfall-runoff model and other hydrologic data were used to assess level of connectivity between villages and the influence of upstream communities on parasite distribution in the study area. Disease transmission was modeled with metapopulations representing six village clusters around the lake using known prevalence data from humans, cats and dogs, snails, and fish. The metapopulation model improved upon the single-village model in its match to historical data patterns for the six village clusters with the introduction of the new time-variable parameters. Results suggest there are three unique hydrologic-epidemiologic regimes within the Lawa Lake system in response to upstream watersheds and risk of overland flooding that contribute to risk for O. viverrini infection. While available data may be insufficient to specifically characterize exact transmission dynamics, the practical implications of such findings are the importance of addressing connectivity for any intermediate host-based intervention. Similar approaches using hydrologic data to assess the impacts of water on pathogen transmission dynamics and inform mechanistic disease transmission models could be applied across other water-related disease systems.

scholarly journals A Spatiotemporal Model on the Transmission Dynamics of Zika Virus Disease

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wachira M. Charles ◽  
Lawi O. George ◽  
J. Malinzi
Keyword(s):  
Zika Virus ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Spatiotemporal Model

scholarly journals Utilizing Nontraditional Data Sources for Near Real-Time Estimation of Transmission Dynamics During the 2015-2016 Colombian Zika Virus Disease Outbreak

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. e30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maimuna S Majumder ◽  
Mauricio Santillana ◽  
Sumiko R Mekaru ◽  
Denise P McGinnis ◽  
Kamran Khan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Zika Virus ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Time Estimation ◽  
Disease Outbreak ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Real Time Estimation

scholarly journals An Ebola virus disease model with fear and environmental transmission dynamics

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
M.L. Juga ◽  
F. Nyabadza ◽  
F. Chirove
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Ebola Virus Disease ◽  
Fear Of Death ◽  
List Type ◽  
Environmental Transmission

ABSTRACTRecent Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreaks have been limited not only to the interactions between humans but also to the complex interplay of the environment, human and socio-economic factors. Changes in human behaviour as a result of fear can also affect disease transmission dynamics. In this paper, a compartmental model is used to study the dynamics of EVD incorporating fear and environmental transmission. We formulate a fear dependent contact rate function to measure the rate of person to person, as well as pathogen to person transmissions. The epidemic threshold and the model equilibria are determined and, their stabilities are analysed. The model is validated by fitting it to data from the 2019 and 2020 EVD outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Our results suggest that the fear of death from EVD may reduce the transmission and aid the control of the disease, but it is not sufficient to eradicate the disease. Policymakers need to also implement other control measures such as case finding, media campaigns, Quarantine and increase in the number of beds in the Ebola treatment centers, good laboratory services, safe burials and social mobilisation, to eradicate the disease.HighlightsDue to its high case fatality rate, EVD undoubtedly instills fear in the inhabitants of any affected community.We propose an Ebola model with fear, which considers the pathogens in the environment to quantify the effect of fear and environmental transmission on the EVD disease dynamics.The fear of death from Ebola is proportional to the Ebola disease transmission rate.At high levels of fear, the number of EVD cases decrease.

Estimating Contraceptive Needs and Increasing Access to Contraception in Response to the Zika Virus Disease Outbreak — Puerto Rico, 2016

2016 ◽  
Vol 65 (12) ◽  
Author(s):  
Naomi K. Tepper ◽  
Howard I. Goldberg ◽  
Manuel I. Vargas Bernal ◽  
Brenda Rivera ◽  
Meghan T. Frey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Puerto Rico ◽  
Zika Virus ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Disease Outbreak ◽  
Access To Contraception

Simulating disease transmission dynamics at a multi-scale level

2007 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-34 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moshe B Hoshen ◽  
Anthony H Burton ◽  
Themis J V Bowcock
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Scale Level ◽  
Multi Scale

Spatial-temporal transmission dynamics and control of infectious diseases: Ebola virus disease (EVD) as a case study

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cécile Viboud ◽  
Hélène Broutin ◽  
Gerardo Chowell
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Spatial Dynamics ◽  
Childhood Diseases ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Theoretical Concepts ◽  
Dynamics And Control

Disentangling the spatial-temporal dynamics of infectious disease transmission is important to address issues of disease persistence, epidemic growth and optimal control. In this chapter, we review key concepts relating to the spatial-temporal dynamics of infectious diseases in meta-populations, whereby geographically separate subpopulations are connected by migration or mobility rates. We review the dynamics of colonization, persistence and extinction of emerging and recurrent pathogens in meta-populations; the role of demographic and environmental factors; and geographic heterogeneity in epidemic growth rate. We illustrate theoretical concepts by reviewing the spatial dynamics of childhood diseases and other acute infections in low- and middle-income countries, and provide a detailed description of the spatial-temporal dynamics of the 2014–16 Ebola epidemic in West Africa. We further discuss how increased availability of empirical data and recent methodological developments provide a deeper mechanistic understanding of transmission processes in space and time, and make recommendations for future work.

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