Observed changes in fire patterns and possible drivers over Central Africa

Forest fire patterns are likely to be altered by climate change. We used boosted regression trees modelling and the MODIS Global Fire Atlas dataset (2003–15) to characterise relative influences of nine natural and human variables on fire patterns across five forest zones in China. The same modelling approach was used to project fire patterns for 2041–60 and 2061–80 based on two general circulation models for two representative concentration pathways scenarios. The results showed that, for the baseline period (2003–15) and across the five forest zones, climate variables explained 37.4–43.5% of the variability in fire occurrence and human activities were responsible for explaining an additional 27.0–36.5% of variability. The fire frequency was highest in the subtropical evergreen broadleaf forests zone in southern China, and lowest in the warm temperate deciduous broadleaved mixed-forests zone in northern China. Projection results showed an increasing trend in fire occurrence probability ranging from 43.3 to 99.9% and 41.4 to 99.3% across forest zones under the two climate models and two representative concentration pathways scenarios relative to the current climate (2003–15). Increased fire occurrence is projected to shift from southern to central-northern China for both 2041–60 and 2061–80.

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Use of damage in fire investigation: a review of fire patterns analysis, research and future direction

Fire Science Reviews ◽

10.1186/s40038-015-0008-4 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 4 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Gregory E Gorbett ◽

Brian J Meacham ◽

Christopher B Wood ◽

Nicholas A Dembsey

Keyword(s):

Fire Investigation ◽

Fire Patterns ◽

Future Direction ◽

In Fire

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Spatial variability in tropospheric peroxyacetyl nitrate in the tropics from infrared satellite observations in 2005 and 2006

10.5194/acp-2016-1047 ◽

2016 ◽

Author(s):

Vivienne H. Payne ◽

Emily V. Fischer ◽

John R. Worden ◽

Zhe Jiang ◽

Liye Zhu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Central Africa ◽

Satellite Observations ◽

Biogenic Emissions ◽

Tropical Atlantic ◽

Peroxyacetyl Nitrate ◽

Fire Emissions ◽

Model Predictions ◽

Spatio Temporal ◽

The Tropics ◽

In Fire

Abstract. Peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) plays a fundamental role in the global ozone budget and is the primary reservoir of tropospheric reactive nitrogen over much of the globe. However, large uncertainties exist in how surface emissions, transport and lightning affect the global distribution, particularly in the tropics. We present new satellite observations of free tropospheric PAN in the tropics from the Aura Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer. This dataset allows us to test expected spatio-temporal distributions that have been predicted by models but previously not well observed. We compare here with the GEOS-Chem model with updates specifically for PAN. We observe an austral springtime maximum over the tropical Atlantic, a feature that model predictions attribute primarily to lightning. Over Northern Central Africa in December, observations show strong inter-annual variability, despite low variation in fire emissions, that we attribute to the combined effects of changes in biogenic emissions and lightning. We observe small enhancements in free tropospheric PAN corresponding to the extreme burning event over Indonesia associated with the 2006 El Nino.

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Trends in fire patterns in a southern African savanna under alternative land use practices

Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment ◽

10.1016/j.agee.2003.09.010 ◽

2004 ◽

Vol 101 (2-3) ◽

pp. 307-325 ◽

Cited By ~ 40

Author(s):

Andrew T. Hudak ◽

Dean H.K. Fairbanks ◽

Bruce H. Brockett

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

African Savanna ◽

Fire Patterns ◽

In Fire ◽

Land Use Practices

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An introduction to patterns of fire in arid and semi-arid Australia, 1998 - 2004

The Rangeland Journal ◽

10.1071/rj07039 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 30 (1) ◽

pp. 95 ◽

Cited By ~ 46

Author(s):

D. Turner ◽

B. Ostendorf ◽

M. Lewis

Keyword(s):

Global Climate ◽

Strong Relationship ◽

Fire Regimes ◽

Negative Consequences ◽

Policy Makers ◽

Burned Areas ◽

Fire Patterns ◽

Fuel Accumulation ◽

In Fire ◽

Semi Arid

Fire is a crucial element in shaping our world, whether of natural or anthropogenic origin. These fires can have both positive and negative consequences and impacts on our natural environment, society and its economics, not to mention global climate. Previous analyses of fire regimes in arid and semi-arid Australia have been of limited spatial or temporal extent. This lack of knowledge has hampered attempts at effective fire management. Satellite imagery allows the continuous detection, monitoring and mapping of fires. Active fires can be detected as fire hotspots, and burned areas mapped as patches from the change of surface reflectance properties in successive images. Data from NOAA’s advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) were used to assess the distribution, seasonality, frequency, number and extent of fire hotspots (FHS) and fire affected areas (FAA) across the entire arid and semi-arid country of Australia from 1998 to 2004. Utilising both of these fire datasets is important, as they complement each other and provide a more robust analysis of fire patterns. Between 1998 and 2004 almost 27% of arid and semi-arid Australia burnt at least once. The main trends in fire distribution follow latitudinal rainfall gradients. Regression analysis also shows a strong relationship with the pattern of antecedent rainfall. The seasonality of fire events varies between climate zones in accordance with the varying distribution of precipitation and temperature, which influence fuel accumulation and curing. For the first time we have a picture of fire patterns across the entire arid and semi-arid regions of the country. This includes several high fire years in certain areas following above-average rainfall. This analysis highlights similarities and differences between regions, giving policy makers and managers a basis from which to make more informed decisions in the present, and with which to compare future regimes.

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Spatial variability in tropospheric peroxyacetyl nitrate in the tropics from infrared satellite observations in 2005 and 2006

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-17-6341-2017 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 17 (10) ◽

pp. 6341-6351 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Vivienne H. Payne ◽

Emily V. Fischer ◽

John R. Worden ◽

Zhe Jiang ◽

Liye Zhu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Central Africa ◽

Satellite Observations ◽

Biogenic Emissions ◽

Combined Effects ◽

Tropical Atlantic ◽

Peroxyacetyl Nitrate ◽

Fire Emissions ◽

Model Predictions ◽

The Tropics ◽

In Fire

Abstract. Peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) plays a fundamental role in the global ozone budget and is the primary reservoir of tropospheric reactive nitrogen over much of the globe. However, large uncertainties exist in how surface emissions, transport and lightning affect the global distribution, particularly in the tropics. We present new satellite observations of free-tropospheric PAN in the tropics from the Aura Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer. This dataset allows us to test expected spatiotemporal distributions that have been predicted by models but previously not well observed. We compare here with the GEOS-Chem model with updates specifically for PAN. We observe an austral springtime maximum over the tropical Atlantic, a feature that model predictions attribute primarily to lightning. Over northern central Africa in December, observations show strong interannual variability, despite low variation in fire emissions, that we attribute to the combined effects of changes in biogenic emissions and lightning. We observe small enhancements in free-tropospheric PAN corresponding to the extreme burning event over Indonesia associated with the 2006 El Niño.

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